Saturday, September 3, 2011


Ichiro! Suzuki has had 11 hits in the eight games since our post on 8/25, bringing his total for the season to 157. There are now 25 games left for the Mariners in 2011: at his current pace, that works out to 34 more hits, or a total of 191.

When we reapply our "odds" calculation from the earlier post and configure it to 25-game snapshots, we find that Ichiro! now has only about a 14% chance to reach 200 hits this year. Over 1700 25-game snapshots in his MLB career, Suzuki has had 43 or more hits in 234 of them, or 13.76% of the time.

Just in case anyone was wondering, the hottest Ichiro has ever been over a 25-game snapshot was in 2004 (the year he hit .372). From July 25 to August 21 that year, Suzuki went 57-for-111, a .514 batting average.

His coldest 25-game stretch did not occur this year (as one might expect, given his career-low batting average). That happened in 2003, when Suzuki closed out the year with two subpar months, bottoming out in the 25 games between August 19 and September 14, when he went 17-for-110, a .155 batting average.