Friday, June 2, 2023

MUCH ADO ON JUNE 2: LOU, THE BABE, AND 3+ HOMER GAMES

June 2 is a date that is especially packed with baseball drama. It's suffused with the tragic story of Lou Gehrig, who passed away from the effects of amyotropic lateral sclerosis on that date in 1941. (Fast forward today to the similar sad case of Sarah Langs, whose plight proves that history can repeat itself even if we're still paying attention to it.)

But June 2 is also the day that Babe Ruth retired. It was 1935, and the Babe had been worse for wear for awhile. He'd left the Yankees amid considerable acrimony: he'd wanted to become the manager, but owner Jake Ruppert had waved away such a scenario. So Ruth returned to Boston, but he'd aged far more than a single winter by the time he took up with the Braves. Though he homered on Opening Day, he would soon endure an agonizing 2-for-40 slump and would be hitting just .145 on May 23.

But there was a "last hurrah" two days later, when Ruth provided one last indelible reminder of why he'd gained the nickname "Sultan of Swat." Four hits, six RBI, and three homers came off his bat that day in Pittsburgh, with the ultra-felicitous #714 soaring over the roof at Forbes Field to cap what is still the greatest career in baseball history. (Ruth walked away from a chance to hit a fourth homer in the game, choosing to leave the game after what proved to be his final mammoth shot. And it soon was clear that he was spent: though he played in five more games, #714 was--appropriately enough--his last-ever hit.)

Ruth's three-homer game was the 36th time a batter had hit three or more homers in a game--the rage for the long ball that he'd initiated was not yet its own pandemic. (Fittingly, the only man since the advent of two-league baseball in 1901 to hit four homers in a game was Lou Gehrig, who'd done it a day later three years before Ruth hung up his spikes.) 

And all of that sets us off on a something of a deep dive into that not-so-rarified world of 3+ homer games. We'll get out the wading side of the pool, leaving Joe the P. to dish on the cream of the crop--Gehrig and the fifteen fine fellows who followed him to four-homer-in-a-game glory. (We all need to watch out for those "aw shucks" glory hogs.) By contrast, the ever-increasing volume of three-homers-in-a-game has made it into something of a workingman's pursuit.

The TimeGrid™ at left shows what we mean when we are talking about proliferation (fortunately, not of the nuclear kind). Your eyes do not deceive you when you see that number: 647, which is the total of 3+ homer games hit since Ken Williams was the first to hit three homers in a game just one hundred and one years ago. (The exact date: April 22, 1922. Williams' St. Louis Browns, who had their best year but still came up one game short of a pennant, won the game 10-7.)

Ruth had one other 3-homer game in 1930, but he specialized in the 2-homer game (he did that 70 times, still a record). The numbers for three-homer games motorvate along at a reasonably sleepy pace throughout the 30s and 40s, with the war effort and the "balata ball" taking some of the steam out of things. As you can see, the uptick starts to occur in 1950, the first big "boom year" in offense since the 1930s, which would usher in a more slugger-y type of game that would become a permanent feature in the years to come. While offensive levels bounced around over the next four decades, slugger-y types were always around in sufficient abundance to keep the flow of three-home games relatively constant. (That said, remember that by 1975, there were 50% more games being played per year; thus the per-game incidence of 3+ homer games is actually a good bit lower than what was the case in the 1950s.) 1987's "homer spike year" is unsurprisingly also the year when a new record for 3+ homer games is set.

The ante was upped in the 90s, as the offensive explosion began to center increasingly on the long ball. 1996 matched 1987 in 3+ homer games; the record was topped in 1999 and again in 2001 (with 22 incidences, matched in 2019, the all-time "homer zombie" year). The six-year total of 85 3+ home games from 1996-2001 seemed surreal at the time, but it was eclipsed in 2016-21 (93 such games) even with most of the 2020 season wiped out by the pandemic. 

There were 322 3+ homer games from 1901-1995; since 1996, there have been 325. Let's see now: 94 years versus 26 years (we'll keep that a whole number, adding our partial '23 to the 2020 "mini-season"). That's an acceleration rate for such games that grades out at over 350%. What was ultra-rare is now edging up on semi-commonplace.

And you can see that in the list of multiple 3-homer game guys (above right). While there are no truly shocking names in the upper reaches of this list, folks like Joe Carter, Larry Parrish and Steve Finley will likely raise some eyebrows. (And yes, we listed the guys by their first names: despite our reputation for churlishness, we're really a friendly "house of diatribe.") You may find it interesting to see Darnell Coles, George (Highpockets) Kelly, Jesse Winker, Jonny Gomes, Jose Valentin, Max Kepler, and Pinky freakin' Higgins (please pronounce his name by dropping the "H" in true Cockney fashion...) all with two 3+ HR games, while the magnificent Mike Trout has (gulp!) none, or the even more magnificent Mickey Mantle has but one. (Or...you might not give a snit, or a peach pit, or what-not: but know that in the Guerrero family, Vlad Jr. has bragging rights over his dad, who also never had a three-homer game.) And know that Mookie Betts is the odds-on favorite to own this list--and, in fact, will do so if he can ring up just one more 3 HR game.

Lots to chew on here, but we won't milk it for much more. There are some fascinating breakouts possible, though, thanks to the data inclusiveness provided by Forman et soeur (we salute another yeoman baseball femme, Katie Sharp, by formally changing our irreverent nickname for Baseball Reference to acknowledge her acumen). For example: the won-loss record for teams when one of their hitters has a 3+ HR game is 545-99 (.862). But you say that this doesn't add up to 647? By cracky, you're right! And it doesn't because there have been three 3-HR performances that occurred in tie games. Who are the fellas whose labors resulted in the event likened to a sisterly kiss? Two are in the Hall of Fame (Johnny Mize, Joe DiMaggio). The other is named Manny--sorry to say, though, that it's Manny Jimenez, not the "Manny being Manny" that it clearly should have been. 

Another breakout we enjoy is the one showing us what batting order position these guys were occupying when they had their 3+ HR games. Those numbers break down as you might expect (as shown at left), except possibly in one case--just how do you end up with a 3+ HR guy batting ninth, even in the proto-fascist age of the DH? And just who are these seven chimps who struck from ambush at the bottom of the batting order, anyway?

One of them happens to be (logically enough...) the only pitcher to hit three homers in a game--Jim Tobin, who did it on May 13th, 1942 against the Cubs. (Tobin, a genuinely good-hitting pitcher, hung on for the win for his Boston Braces thanks to his double-duty performance.) He was followed by future Amazin' Met Art Shamsky, who didn't even start the game on August 12, 1966, but slammed a pinch-hit homer batting for the pitcher midway through the game, was kept in the lineup and hit two more in what proved to a losing cause (the Reds, his team at the time, lost 14-11 in 13 innings). The next three to do it were all American Leaguers--Dale Sveum (Brewers, 1987), Trot Nixon (Red Sox, 1999) and Eddie Rosario (Twins, 2017). Eddie clearly triggered a streak of guys whose names end with vowels batting ninth and hitting three homers in a game, because he was followed in 2020 by Yankees' backup catcher Kyle Higashioka and White Sox backup catcher (sensing a trend, are you?) Seby Zavala in 2021. 

We could go on, but we won't. Oh, OK, it's true that Mookie Betts has the record for most 3 HR games by a leadoff batter--five of his six have been while batting in the #1 slot. But the ultimate trivia question for all this is clearly: has there ever been a single game where more than one player has hit 3+ HRs?

And the answer to that question is, tantalizingly: no. While there are several instances of 3+ HR games happening on the same day, there has (to date, at least) never been a game where two players each hit 3 or more homers. Recently, the Pirates (of all people) had 3 HR games from two different players on consecutive days (Bryan Reynolds and Michael Perez, on 6/29/2022 and 6/30/2022 respectively), but that's as close as anyone has come. We'll leave it to Sarah Langs and/or Katie Sharp to tell us how many times a 3+ HR game has been accompanied by some else hitting 2 HRs in the same game. 

So there you have it...and, as is so often the case, we owe it all to the Bambino. We'll circle back to this when the 714th 3+ HR game occurs...at the current rate, that should be sometime in 2029. Stay tuned...