Thursday, June 1, 2023

MAY IN A NUTSHELL

HERE's some quick-and-dirty data that gives you a high-level view of how May '23 panned out...

You've got the W-L records, the WPCT, the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP)...and the percentage difference--blue Diff column in the center--between the two. (We did the counterintuitive thing with the color coding: black is bad luck, red is good luck. 

There are some sizable percentage differences when we're looking at results at the monthly level: the Pythagorean "luck" can represent a shift of three games either way during that time.

And there are ready explanations for those shifts that show up in the underlying results. For example, the Padres went 0-7 in one-run games during May--which will shift around your WPCT from your PWP without breaking a sweat. Similar issues befell the Blue Jays (1-5 in one-run games) and the Twins (2-8 in close games--those decided by two runs or less). 

The Royals continue to be among the strangest performers in MLB, losing slugfests and low-scoring games in tandem, winding up with three fewer wins than should have. 

On the other side of the ledger, the Tigers and Brewers dodged a number of bullets during May. Milwaukee worked hard to let their NL Central opponents back into the race, but it could have been even worse.

The HRH (Home Rnns Hit) vs. HRA (Home Runs Allowed ) data shows some warning signs for the Rays, who hit 61 HRs in April, but saw their HRH/HRA ratio slip back to virtually even-steven in May. That's what losing two front-line starting pitchers can do to you. Meanwhile, the A's pitchers remain "tater-tastic" (but not in a good way--and note that we reversed the color-coding for the homer differential, just to be confounding. (And we got the Royals' HR diff color-coded wrong; it should be black. Sorry, KC: you're strange enough without us helping.)

Two more 50+ HR months--the Yankees (53) and the Braves (51), which, added to the Rays, gives us three thus far in '23. There were a total of five such months in '22, as was also the case in '21--and in the abbreviated pandemic "season" in '20. That total--5+5+5+3 (18)--equals the number of 50+ HR months achieved by teams in 2019.