Thursday, January 18, 2024

IN SEARCH OF/5: THE MOST HOMERS HIT by A HITTER VS. AN OPPOSING TEAM

[Soapbox mode on...] Some will never admit it, but the 1998-99 "top-shelf homer competish" between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa was a unique pinnacle in baseball history. The two men combined for 263 homers over those two seasons, cruising ahead of the Sosa-Barry Bonds tandem n 2001-02 (232). 

Care to mention Ruth & Gehrig in this discussion? Go ahead: the men who invented the nickname "Bronx Bombers" combined for "only" 188 in 1927-28. (That's 75 fewer homers than Mac & Sammy. True, they had 16 fewer games to work with over those two seasons, but still...)

It's still hard to believe, but these two consummate sluggers combined for 1192 lifetime HRs, and are still so far on the outside looking in that they might as well be in another solar system as regards... ...you know... (whispering) ...enshrinement. 

They are two cogs in a five-star* cluster, a maudit constellation formed by an avalanche of backlash that stubbornly refuses to thaw, and that is a bigger blight upon baseball and humanity than anything the unholy five might have done in pursuit of their martyred excellence. 

Collating home run totals in four-year intervals, we find that there are fifteen (15) instances of players hitting 200+ HRs over any four-year period. Sosa (five) and McGwire (three) account for more than half of them. It's quite possible--likely, even, that we'll never see another member of this fraternity, which includes that other excoriated slugger--Barry Bonds, who exceed 200 HRs over four years three times (1999-2002, 2000-2003, 2001-2004)--as well as two fellas who are actually in the Hall of Fame: Babe Ruth (two 200+ HR four-year skeins in 1926-29 and 1927-30), and (wait for it) Ken Griffey Jr. (two times, in 1996-99 and 1997-2000).

For all the punishment Sosa, McGwire and Bonds dished out to baseballs during those "impossible years" clustered around the turn of the century, they've received an inordinate and unseemly excoriation in an endless tsunami of backlash that can truly be said to epitomize the perfervid "century of inchoate revenge" in which we are all now forced to dwell. It would be a small but significant reversal of this blood* state of mind if those three were simply put into Cooperstown via something akin to an executive order, in recognition of the fact that otherwise rational minds have just up and left the building with respect to this matter. [Soapbox mode off...]

Now let's look at the homer vs. opponent data for Sammy and Big Mac, (hopefully) cleansed of our need to permanently transfer guilt. Let's start with Sammy...

As we can see, Sosa hit at least one homer against every franchise, but he had some favorite targets, most of them in the National League.

The NL Central teams that Sammy faced during his tenure with the Cubs (Astros, Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates) were generally not the teams that he excelled against homer-wise, as the HR/PA data suggests. 

(The exception: Milwaukee, a team that transferred to the NL just in time to get sandblasted by Sammy over a six-year period.)

In terms of homers in opposition ballparks, it will not be surprising to discover that Sosa hit the most in Coors Field (21), followed by Qualcomm in San Diego (20). 

(He also hit two in Petco Park, but he also hit four in the Rockies' first home park, Mile High Stadium, so his favorite "opposition city" was still Denver.)

He also did a number on the NL's late-nineties expansion club (the D-backs). 

Note that Sammy did enjoy hitting the long ball against bad teams: his HR/G and HR/PA values are quite elevated against teams with a losing record.

Let's conclude our look at Sosa's shoved-to-the-side accomplishments by noting that he is second all-time in terms of the number of homers hit in a single park: he hit 293 HRs in Wrigley Field, behind only Mel Ott, who hit 323 homers at the Polo Grounds.

Now on to Big Mac, whose late-career run in the National League produces some incredibly eye-popping HR/PA values...

...not to mention some truly surreal HR/G values as well. .609 against the Marlins; .548 vs. Sosa's Cubs; .514 against the Padres (who in this time frame were not bad: they went to the World Series in 1998); .500 against the Mets. 

The only NL teams that seemed to have Big Mac's number, HR-wise, were the Reds (.180 HR/G) and the Braves (.231). 

But what's especially mind-blowing with respect to McGwire's numbers is that overall HR/PA rate (7.6%), which just shoots past everyone (even Ruth) and resides in a zone of its own. Note that, unlike Sosa, Big Mac had an essentially even rate against both good and bad opponents. 

Aaron Judge is the closest thing to McGwire that we're likely to see in our (collective) lifetime. Big Mac holds the record for the most HRs hit in four consecutive seasons, with 245; Judge's four best (non-consecutive) HR seasons (2017, 2021-23) add up to 190. In order to get into the 200 club for four consecutive seasons, Judge needs to match his 2022 total of 62 homers. He could do that, absolutely: but if he did, he'd still be 45 homers short of Big Mac's mark from 199*-99. 

Chew on that for a moment...or a lifetime.

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The "five-star cluster" includes Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro in addition to McGwire, Sosa and Bonds. It also seems to extend to Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez as well.