Sunday, May 7, 2023

AFTER 35: RAREFIED RAYS

The Tampa Bay Rays rallied from a 5-0 deficit against the New York Yankees earlier today, raising their 2023 early-season won-loss record to 28-7. 

That's a winning percentage of .800 after 35 games--a little more than 20% of the season.

We're moving past the "early" segment of "early-season"...so let's see what a hot 35-game start means relative to the future fate of those teams with the hottest "hot starts."

And the chart (at left) suggests that the Rays have truly reached rarefied territory.

Of the 33 teams on the list with at least a 26-9 record in their first 35 games, 23 of them won pennants. Which means that 70% of the team with such starts to their seasons have played in the World Series.

13 of those teams (39%) have won the World Series.

Additionally, four more teams (the ones marked with a "d" on the chart) made it into the post-season.

The only teams with such scalding starts who didn't make the post-season one way or another are: the 1911 Detroit Tigers, the 1912 Chicago White Sox, the 1941 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1952 New York Giants, the 1972 New York Mets, and the 2002 Boston Red Sox. 

Turning those numbers around, that means that 82% of all teams with at least a 26-9 start in their first 35 games have made it into the post-season.

We'll follow up in the next post with a list of the hottest 35-game spans at any point during a single season. The question: how many teams have done better that the 30-5 season starts by the '84 Tigers and the 1902 Pirates?