THE RAYS AT 20-3: WHAT DOES HISTORY SAY ABOUT 23-GAME HOT STARTS?

The Tampa Bay Rays have rolled up to a 20-3 start, the best since the 1981 Oakland A's. Oddly, teams that have started 20-3 or better have not turned out to be slam-dunk post-season teams: while the 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers went on to win the World Series and the 1946 Red Sox came up one game short, two other teams who had an .850+ WPCT after 23 games--the 1911 Detroit Tigers and the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers--didn't make the post-season at all. (The '81 A's made the post-season, but were knocked out early.)

When we move the needle a bit lower (down to teams that started .800 or better--those with 18-4 and 19-4 records), the percentages go up. Of the 16 teams in this category--including the ones mentioned above, and also including the 2003 Yankees, the 2001 Mariners, the 1986 Mets, the 1984 Tigers, the 1977 Dodgers, the 1938 Giants, the 1918 Giants, the 1912 Giants, the 1912 A's, the 1907 Cubs, and the 1902 Pirates--twelve made it into the post-season, and five were World Series winners.

So the Rays are in the 75% bracket with their 20-3 start.

These teams had an aggregate WPCT of .640, which works out to a won-loss record of 104-58.

Interestingly, the teams in the next bracket down--those who started .750-.799--actually won more World Series (eight: the 2018 Red Sox, the 1990 Reds, the 1958 Yankees, the 1940 Reds, the 1939 Yankees, the 1928 Yankees, the 1922 Giants, and the 1905 Giants). Overall, however, this group made the post-season only 59% of the time.

This group had an aggregate WPCT of .591, a won-loss record of 96-66.

And, finally, the group with 23-game starts between .725-.749: this is a much larger group, a total of 45 teams, all but two of them starting 17-6. Five teams in this group won the World Series: the 2016 Cubs, the 1998 Yankees, the 1944 Cardinals, the 1932 Yankees, and the 1913 A's. Twenty-three of the 45 teams made it into the post-season (51%). 

This group had an aggregate WPCT of .585, a won-loss record of 95-67.