Monday, August 1, 2022

60 YEARS AGO/101: STAN IS NOT THE MAN (AGAIN)

We search for a simple method to demonstrate the erratic year that Stan Williams had for the Dodgers in 1962...after dabbling with game scores and the standard deviation of TB/IP and a few others we'll just leave as unidentified flying objects, we finally decided on the standard deviation of BFP (batters faced) divided by the average of BFP. 

This is for starts only, of course. (Stan's 12 relief appearances--as opposed to two for Don Drysdale and one for Sandy Koufax and none at all for Johnny Podres--already speak to the fact that Dodger manager Walt Alston was working the margins with Stan for almost the entire year.)

So, STDEV of BFP values for the four major LA starters in '62 (lower is better): Drysdale 3.89, Podres 5.51, Koufax 6.37, Williams 8.11.

Then, dividing that by the average BFP per start (those values: Drysdale 31.3, Koufax 28.1, Podres 27.1, Williams 25.4) we get the deviation from average values (again, lower is better): Drysdale 12.4%, Podres 20.4%, Koufax 22.7%, Williams 31.8%.

Then we calculate the percentage of starts where the starter has less than 25 BFP (you can see that this method is clearly not applicable for use in 2022, can't you?), which returns the following values for our Dodger foursome; Drysdale 14.6%, Koufax 18.4%, Podres 27.3%, Williams 42.8% (!!).

And finally, you average the low BFP percentage with the deviation from average percentage, so that we wind up with the EOQ (that's the Erratic Outing Quotient): Drysdale 13.5%, Koufax 20.3%, Podres 23.9%, Williams 37.3%.

Did we say it was simple? Well, it is...sort of. Anyway, the final average shows that Williams in '62 was noticeably more erratic than his Dodger rotation-mates. (Almost twice as erratic, by this measure than Koufax or Podres, and nearly three times as erratic as Drysdale). 

And one of those erratic, down-the-tube performances reared up on August 1, 1962, when ten batters into the game, Alston concluded that Stan simplydidn't have it that night ('twas a Wednesday night). He only allowed two runs and five hits, but according to newspaper accounts, the Pirates (who were still in the middle of a "swoon away" from pennant contention) really crushed most of those hits. They hit .500 off Stan during his time in the game--not a figure that spells success...

They did the same thing, only worse, to Ed Roebuck in the third, scoring six times in the inning (though the three Dodger errors--two by Willie Davis--certainly didn't help). When the Dodgers came to bat in the bottom of the inning, they trailed 8-0. Bob Friend cruised home with the win for the Pirates. Final score: Pirates 9, Dodgers 1.

BUT the Giants failed to gain ground as their hitters went only 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position against the Cubs' Bob Buhl and Chicago's newly minted reliever Don Cardwell. George Altman's two-run homer off Billy O'Dell in the tenth gave the Cubs a lead they managed not to relinquish in the bottom of the inning. Final score: Cubs 3, Giants 2 (10 innings).

SEASON RECORDS: LAD 71-36, SFG 67-40