Tomlin's prognosis is, if anything, less rosy given that he sports a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .179, which is in post-neo parlance so low as to not have a pulse. (And yes, a number that low is clearly unsustainable.) Other new measures suggest that Tomlin has done a Houdini act in high leverage situations thus far in 2011.
|"Pronk" (Travis Hafner) has been more Mule |
than donkey this year...
The Indians hitters have also compiled a highly unusual "run shape" for their offense: it's spread across the entire batting order in such a way that the #9 slot has scored almost as many runs as the #1 slot. That's actually an amazing achievement for what amounts to one-sixth of the season: it doesn't tend to happen more than about 20% of the time in that sample size, and it happens about seventh-tenths of one percent of the time over an entire season.
This suggests that they are likely to stop being so hyper-efficient sooner than later. On the other hand, they have a fine base of youngish hitters (Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt LaPorta) and are having resurgent years from Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. They should remain a reasonably potent offense.
|"Even though you hate me, you adore me as well...and|
I can dance so fast that you won't even see me!"
We've broken that data out in two ways--by basic won-loss record and by the Pythagorean won-loss record. The basic W-L (27g record data at the bottom) is all over the map, but the Pythag (at the top) is nicely linear, showing that the more legit you are in terms of runs scored/runs allowed in the one-sixth season slice, the more likely you are to wind up in the post-season.
The Indians, whose current Pythagorean WPCT is .671, score a 53% shot via won-loss, and a 64% shot via Pythagorean.
So don't take them to the bank, but be virtually assured that they are going to be at least a .500+ team in 2011. Only 2% of teams who started 19-8 or better (3 out of 129) wound up below .500 at season's end. And only two of the 69 teams that started exactly 19-8 (3%) failed to post a winning season.