Saturday, June 1, 2024

TWO MONTHS INTO 2024: BASIC STARTER/RELIEVER DATA

HERE is some data that you might not find collated in just this way anywhere else...

It's a month-by-month breakdown of the ERA performance of all 30 MLB teams, broken up between starters and relievers.

We've organized it by league (AL first) and division (East, Central, West).

Teams leading their division have their abbreviations rendered in white type.

Teams doing well but not leading their division have their abbreviations rendered in light blue type.

All others are in yellow type.

We can see that the teams doing well thus far in 2024 are all getting solid work from both components of their pitching staff.

And the Phillies, perhaps benefiting from the soft schedule they've had over the first couple months, have been lights out in a way that we don't figure anyone (even the Phillies themselves) would have predicted before the season began.

The Guardians have managed to thrive despite having mediocre starting pitching, but their bullpen has snapped back into excellent shape in May and they just keep continuing to cruise...

What division looks to have the best overall pitching? That would be the AL East... but lots of things can happen to change that. After all, no one was expecting the Red Sox to come out with such a strong display of starting pitching as what they achieved in April; and folks weren't surprised when they backslid significantly in May.

And the Yankees have done exceptionally well in terms of their starting pitching despite still having Gerrit Cole on the shelf.

Over in the NL, the Braves will need to keep that pitching in play to stay within striking distance of the high-flying Phillies, especially with Ronald Acuña Jr. on the shelf for the duration of the year.

And under our noises, the Nationals seem to be in process of some serious reinvention, with four starters (Jake Irvin, Mackenzie Gore, Trevor Williams and Mitchell Parker) all holding their own.

NOW let's look at starting pitcher/relief pitcher won-loss records, which have a few interesting wrinkles...

With the shift toward a higher percentage of innings for relievers continuing, we're seeing more decisions going to them as well--the average "decision percentage" for relievers is now up to 41%.

The MLB team that is having a sensational run with reliever won-loss record thus far in 2024 is none other than the Milwaukee Brewers, who are among just three teams where relievers have more decisions than the starters (the others are the Cubs and the Mets).

The Brewers are on a pace that would net them more than sixty wins from their bullpen in 2024, which would break the current record held by the Tampa Bay Rays (58, set in 2021). As you might expect, the top 25 teams in reliever wins over a season have all occurred since 2018...

The division with the best won-loss record from its relievers: that AL East again, followed closely by the AL Central (boosted by the Guardians' gaudy 18-5 record thus far.

The "left coast" seems to be getting the best won-loss serendipity from its relievers thus far: all the teams in cities adjacent to the Pacific Ocean have combined for a 57-42 record from the guys in the pen.

BUT those Brewers...just how far can they go with this? It's not just the wins, but the winning percentage: they are at .750 (currently seventh-best during the "divisional era"; the Guardians, at 18-5, are actually ahead of them at .783, second behind the current record holder (the 1976 Twins, 33-9, .786 WPCT). Of course it's a long shot, simply because there are so many more decisions that go to relievers these days...but we can dream, can't we?