We're keeping this extremely simple, as we're not quite halfway through May: we're only displaying batting average (that suddenly significant stat now that it's too close to the dreaded miasma of 1968) and HR/G.
We've broken it out by team in each league, and averaged the data at the league level to determine if the changes we're seeing in the May data is uniform or if it is skewed in some way.
And what we see in that data is a clear sign that the NL is driving the modest-but-measurable uptick in offense that's starting to manifest as the weather begins to warm and as some of the younger pitchers who were unfamiliar to batters at the outset of the season are starting to be solved.
As you can see in the chart at right, the AL is presently staying very close to its April levels for BA and HR/G.
But the NL has a much more noticeable uptick in these areas. In the NL, teams are hitting .246 in May as opposed to .233 in April, and they're currently hitting 1.1 HRs per game in May as contrasted with 0.88 HR/G in April.
The team-by-team breakout can show you the teams who have the greatest performance differences from month-to-month thus far (and we should reemphasize that we're only about 40% through May at this point).
We will be surprised if, for example, the Washington Nationals will hit .288 for the full month of May. But ten of the fifteen NL teams have higher BAs in May than in April, as opposed to just seven of the fifteen AL teams.
Likewise, in HR/G, eight NL teams have hit more HR/G in May than in April, with startling upticks from the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals and Nationals.
Over in the AL, the only startling upticks in HR/G thus far in '22 belong to the Angels and the Orioles. Overall, HR/G is down in May for the AL, but in the NL it's up about 25%.
We'll check back soon to see if this trend continues. Stay tuned...
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The limitation in the data is just that--as was the case above, we're not measuring a full 2022 season, only the part during the relatively cold weather of April and early May. That's not enough to see how these numbers change--and they will change--as a result of the four hotter months of the season.
But at least we can see the range of difference at this point, and get a sense of the current patterns in the data.
We're looking at the same stats here--OPS and HR/G--as we did above. What we see in the year-to-date '22 data is that twenty-three of thirty ballparks are manifesting a decline in offensive production as measured by OPS.
And we see that six of the seven teams experiencing an uptick at their home parks are teams from the National League--the Reds, the Rockies, the Marlins, the Brewers, the Giants and the Cardinal. The only AL team with a park increase in OPS: the Seattle Mariners.
Homers are even more lopsided: they've increased in only three ballparks--all in the NL (home parks for the Marlins, the Brewers and the Giants).
Parks that have seen HRs sink below the floorboards thus far in '22 are all located in the American League: Homers per game are down 222% (!) in Camden Yards thus far; they are down 146% at Cleveland's Progressive Field; and they're down 105% at the Oakland Coliseum.
Speaking of the Oakland Coliseum: take a look at that OPS value for the park thus far in '22. That .593 OPS is, at least at the moment, one of the lowest in MLB history. Most of the ballparks that have managed a lower OPS over a full year are from the 1960s (full disclosure: we set aside the Deadball Era parks due to the consciously different style of play). The parks in question are: Comiskey Park, 1967 (.564 OPS); Comiskey again in 1966 (.577 OPS); Dodger Stadium, 1968 (.578 OPS); Anaheim Stadium, 1973 (.579 OPS); Colt Stadium in Houston, 1963 (.583 OPS); and the Astrodome, 1981 (.590 OPS).
We'll see how this all shakes out as the season unfolds...
