Koufax had been more hittable than usual in the first six weeks of the '62 season--but his control, which had always been his Achilles heel, was much better--markedly improved even from his first star-quality season in 1961, when he won 18 games and set a new NL strikeout record with 269 (a record he would break twice in the next three seasons).
With his five-hit, ten-strikeout complete game win on May 21, Koufax would begin a skein of pitching at an otherworldly level that presaged the elevated level of performance that he would maintain from 1963-66. In 13 starts until an undiagnosed blood clot in the index finger of his pitching hand forced him to the sidelines, Koufax would compile a 10-2 record, with an ERA of 1.49. Our Quality Matrix method (QMAX), a probabilistic measurement of starting pitcher performance, shows that 12 of his 13 starts in that time frame were in the top two tiers of hit prevention as defined by the system (see QMAX matrix chart at right.)
Arguments about Koufax' performance have persisted in the neo-sabermetric age, based on overstating the effects of either ballpark factors or the strike zone change that came into effect starting in 1963, but most have come around to the more general consensus that he reached a pinnacle of performance of sufficient magnitude to more than justify his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame despite his retirement at the age of 30.
QMAX makes it clear that Koufax' own testimony (as documented in his 1966 autobiography) about his improvement is correct--once he mastered his control, a process that began in the second half of the 1960 season, stabilized in 1961, and improved further in his injury-shorted 1962 season, he was in position to take full advantage of the strike zone change. The rest is history.
The QMAX numbers are as eye-popping as the more mainstream stats. To go with that 1.49 ERA, you have a 4.8 H/9, a .150 opponents' BA, and a 10.9 K/9 rate--all unprecedented figures in 1962. In the QMAX formulation, starting pitchers in the 1962 NL had a 3.99 hit prevention average on the matrix chart (which establishes a seven-by-seven performance grid for each start), and a 3.35 walk prevention average. Over these thirteen starts, Koufax' QMAX numbers were 1.69 for hit prevention (what's termed the "S", or "stuff" dimension) and 2.00 for walk prevention (what's termed the "C", or "command" dimension).
The QMAX matrix chart for that streak (at left) shows a pronounced but lesser level of dominance (8 of 11 starts in the top two tiers of hit prevention, as opposed to 12 of 13), and shows his spottier control in the "C" dimension distribution; but it's clear that Koufax was steadily improving all aspects of his performance throughout this period, with these performance peaks strongly suggesting the possibility of an even higher performance level. (The QMAX scores for this 1961 streak: 2.18 "S", 2.55 "C".) While such a method is clearly not foolproof, its true probabilistic approach (as opposed to the Game Score measure, which "mixes its metaphor" by incorporating runs scored results into its formula) makes it the least encumbered tool for assessing a starting pitcher's true performance level.
Koufax began his outing on May 21, 1962 by striking out Harvey Kuenn and Chuck Hiller, and retiring Willie Mays on a fly ball. The Dodgers took a 2-0 lead in the fourth on a homer by Tommy Davis (#9 on the year; Tommy went 3-for-3 with 3 RBI in the game), and added another run in the sixth.
Orlando Cepeda hit a solo HR in the seventh to spoil Koufax' shutout, but the Dodgers sent ten men to the plate in the bottom of the eighth, scoring five insurance runs to turn a close game into a laugher. It was the beginning of an incredible hot streak for the team: beginning with this win, they'd post a 17-2 record over the next seventeen days. Final score: Dodgers 8, Giants 1.
SEASON RECORDS: SFG 28-12, LAD 24-15
