NOW, at last--an opening for another salvo vis-a-vis our long-standing, long-winded cri de coeur for the resurrection of the triple...
We weren't going to bring this up again for awhile, figuring that the semi-loyal readers here had most likely had more than their fill of it--so please blame Jayson Stark for what follows. Bedbugs in the posterior (apparently) prompted the veteran scribe to take off on the topic without clearance from the tower (where air traffic controllers are becoming as scarce as the three-bagger), and even semi-comatose readers will not be at all surprised to see us pile on.
Stark was lamenting what he called the "death of the gapper," which included doubles as part of his meandering jeremiad. He then inveigled baseball's next commissioner (that's Theo Epstein, for those who don't follow baseball's subterranean layer of king-making...) into a discussion of what could be done to ameliorate (if not actually alleviate) the decay of extra-base hits that don't leave the yard.
AND that is when Theo did something that--almost--proves that there is a subterranean readership of this motley, increasingly infrequent blog. Those folk get their occasional dose of mirth from the outlandish notions that still emanate from these parts--and then appropriate them in ways that render them into pale, ghostly reflections of their outré, over-the-top vitality. (Insert long, resigned sigh here...)
So what did Theo do? He suggested that a line be drawn across the outfield grass to designate the furthest distance from home plate that an outfielder could stand. The upshot of this restriction was to make it harder for those OFs to catch long drives, thus increasing the number of extra-base hits.
That part in bold will seem mighty familiar to the even the quasi-loyal reader here. But it's another namby-pamby implementation of a much more flamboyant idea that will have little impact on the actual number of "non-TTO XBHs" (we'll get that term right out into the open so that the "post post-neo-sabes" can appropriate it as part of their next retrograde regressions).
While 2B/G are down from their historical highs, they are still above the game's long-term historical average.
XBHs as a whole are still at close to an all-time high right now, due to the recent jump in HR/G. The current game, with its ongoing dearth of singles, is still out-producing XBH as they manifested in the early peaks you in the blue line on the chart (coinciding with offensive peaks in 1894 and 1930).
THERE is one asymptotic line on this chart, of course-and it ain't doubles.
But how to get more triples? We do need--in one form or another--a line drawn in the outfield to do so. The three-bagger is correlated starkly (no pun intended!) with ballpark dimensions: the distance where the fences draw their lines. There are no ballparks left that favor triples in the way that a sizable number of them once did. Semi-convulsive readers here will remember that our prescription for expanding to 32 teams involved creating four leagues, one of which would alter all of its ballparks to facilitate triples by adding 20-30 feet to the outfield dimensions.
Chances for that, of course--as all readers here know, are semi-slim. But it would be part of a "macro-overhaul" of the game's ambient conditions, and it would create the greater variety that fans and insiders alike are seeking.
WE'RE of the opinion, however, that the most impactful solutions in this area come from "micro-interventions." Which is why we applaud the use of the "ghost runner"--an idea reviled by purists who see to have some need to overlay the Horatio Alger myth upon the game. What they overlook is just how such small changes--ones that apply only for the most limited amount of time relative to the overall duration of the game--can add tension and texture to the game. (We credit Baseball Prospectus' fallen warrior Gary Huckabay for his originally cheeky use of this term, which lives on in both vagabond and fugitive manifestations.)
It's a miracle that something like the ghost runner got implemented at all, but our "190-foot rule" to create defensive anxiety and triple the number of 3B/G actually pre-dates it. It's a rule with a similar spirit, if a totally different implementation. To recap for the semi-recrudescent reader, the line drawn across the outfield at 190 feet comes into play in one half-inning for each team at the manager's discretion no earlier than the third inning and no later than the sixth inning--when implemented, it forces the opposition to move its center fielder to a position in front of the line.
This leaves what Huckabay would likely describe as "a metric ton" of additional outfield territory to be covered during that half-inning--thereby creating a fertile breeding ground for triples.
Estimates suggest that using this rule across two half-innings will (as noted above) triple the number of 3B/G. A side benefit is that more slow-footed runners will get triples. (Though Jayson Stark might lament that triples from Bengie Molina should somehow remain singular. To which we say: we are all singular, and this is the price we have to pay for more triples. Trust us, Bengie won't mind...)
MORE importantly, though, these half-innings (call them, as we did above, "micro-interventions" into the overall gestalt of baseball) will add ongoing texture and novelty to the game. When announcers inform the fans that a manager is exercising his right to invoke the 190-foot rule for its lone use during a game, a ripple of anticipation will spread through the crowd, for they will know that the game's window of possibilities have been opened wider, and that balls in play are suddenly more dangerous and unpredictable.
OH, and Jayson...a 190-foot rule also increase the number of 2B/G.
And Theo can still have his line, too. (After all, even semi-hip readers know that one is the loneliest number.) Another 2% boost from a second circumscribing line will be some icing on the cake.
BUT our rule will be a helluva lot more fun...
