IT's safe to say that most were skeptical that the 2023 AL bottom-dwellers (OAK and KCR, best identified via abbreviations after their combined 105-218 record) would amount to much in 2024; this despite the fact that both teams acquired pitching in the off-season (KCR picking up two starters--Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo--from the Padres, OAK acquiring two castoffs--Alex Wood, Ross Stripling--from the Giants).
Most felt that these moves were more-or-less flimsy bandaids for a problem that was much deeper and more intractable in nature--but baseball abounds in surprises, and as we enter May 2024, these two teams, who combined for a 13-45 record in April 2023, found themselves collectively over .500 at the end of April 2024 (32-29), a net gain of eighteen games in the standing in just one month.
Most of this rising from the basement stems from an unexpected improvement in pitching, as we'll see when we slam together comparisons of the two teams' April performances from this year and last. Let's start with the A's:
WE haven't gone back in time to see what the worst pitching line for April might be, but the A's collective performance last year has got to be in the running: a 7.72 overall ERA, "powered" by starting pitchers posting a "perfect" record (0-15, 8.51 ERA, serving up 2.2 HR/9).
What happened this April? As our headline suggests, A's pitchers got massively better at not giving up the home run (something that, thus far in 2024, has been the case generally in MLB, despite the wave of arm injuries that dominated the media headlines, producing much handwringing from the likes of Ben Lindbergh). A's pitchers cut their HR/9 in half, and while the starters still struggled (5.00 ERA for the month), the relievers, led by the emergence of Mason Miller as a potent, unhittable closer, posted a 8-3 record with a 2.51 ERA, ranking sixth in MLB for the month.
Wood has been a weak link in the starting rotation, but Stripling is at least pitching well in the soon-to-be-abandoned Coliseum, with a quite respectable 3.04 ERA there thus far. A's pitchers in general have been especially good at avoiding the long ball at home, allowing just 5 HRs there so far this year (as opposed to 21 on the road).
So there is guarded optimism for something like respectable mediocrity for the long trodden-upon A's, who might want to rename themselves the AAAA's next year when they are callously "relegated" to a minor-league ballpark in Sacramento by an ownership that needs a one-way ticket on a rocket ship headed out of the solar system.
FOR the Royals, the rosiest of all possible scenarios has emerged in the first month, as both their starters and relievers have improved at comparable rates:
KC's bullpen has not been as good as the A's--they still have some residual wildness in their reliever mix, but the coaching staff seems to have developed an effective closer in James (General) McArthur, a former starting pitcher whom the Royals converted after acquiring him in June 2023 after the Phillies released him.
The key thing for the Royals' pen is--again--the disappearance of the long ball from their "repertoire." They have cut their HR/9 rate in half, and their starters thus far have pretty much done the same, led by strong early work from Lugo (who won his fifth game yesterday). Wacha has struggled a bit, and their putative ace, lefty Cole Ragans has been inconsistent, so the jury is out on whether KC can sustain its early-year success, but they've been extremely tough to beat at home (12-5 thus far) and one figures that they could legitimately project to 75-80 wins over the season if they sustain a reasonable portion of their pitching staff improvement.
WE'll be back with a more comprehensive look at April 2024 shortly, along with some historical data about the correlation of first-month performance with teams making it into the post-season. In the meantime, root for your favorite doormat.
