Friday, August 11, 2023

OLD RELIABLE (OPS+) STILL NAILS 2023 MLB's TOP HITTERS...


The old-school sabermetric tools still work, thank you very much. And we haven't seen anyone do a list for hitters just based on their hitting for awhile, because the so-called "new school" has rabbit-holed themselves with various forms of defensive data and will overlay that into what they present at the drop of a hat...

...or sometimes even before the hat starts to fall.

Here at BBB--and just like you--we know that a second baseman with an OPS+ of 150 is going to be more valuable than a first baseman with an OPS+ of 150. But sometimes we just want to get the lay of the land, and we don't want to be heavily massaged by Statcast or Phangrafs. We're cool with "old school" because we're there are times when we' re just interested in the hitting numbers. 

So that's what we have for you today: baseball's top hitters, in five tiers. Data is through yesterday (August 10th). Here are your top guys, those with OPS+ of 150 or higher:


Bet you didn't know that Corey Seager was that close to Shohei Ohtani in OPS+, did you? If Seager hadn't missed six weeks early in the year, he'd have a semi-serious shot at the MVP award. (He said, snorting: no way an "old school" stat line that looks like a 1930s player is going to beat out the Fold It Two Ways God with the homer mystique.)

The real pity of 2023 is that Aaron Judge got hurt, as he was on pace to have a season very similar to the one that denied Ohtani the MVP last season. 

Note that players aged 25 and younger have their stats rendered in orange. (We were in an orange mood, like Madge Rapf above, which still doesn't explain to you who she is, despite bearing a striking resemblance to Agnes Moorehead.)

We took the plate appearance threshold down to 90 PA to include a few folk you wouldn't see otherwise who are currently hitting (the banged-up-but-still-great Jose Altuve among them). At this moment, this is looking like Mookie Betts' best season since 2018.

But the big talk in the NL is Ronald Acuna, Jr., still on track to (literally) run away with the MVP award.

And now, the second tier, those hitters with OPS+ of 140-149:


This range is kind of a thin group this year, with only two hitters (Luis Arraez and Kyle Tucker) playing regularly. We're also not entirely sure that the young guys here (Zack Gelof, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers) are really going to hold this level, but they might. 

Cody Bellinger is certainly setting himself up for a big free agent payday this off-season, isn't he?

Let's gear ourselves up for the third tier, all the folk whose OPS+ is between 130 and 139:


We have a more sizable number of youngish hitters in this category, ten in all. Corbin Carroll was flying higher earlier in the season (as were his Diamondbacks--whose dive has been even more precipitous than Madge Rapf's), but he's still having an impressive speed-power year. 

Strange to see Mickey Moniak right next to the ever-injured Mike Trout, whose rate numbers have taken a tumble over the past two years. It's unlikely that Mickey will remain there, however, given that extreme BB/K ratio he's carrying. 

Hidden away from most everyone outside of San Diego is the fine year being turned in by He-Seong Kim, now playing second base for the Padres. 

And it's nice to see Christian Yelich have something like a return to form after his dark passage in the wilderness since the "pandemic season."

Let's continue on to the hitters with OPS+ values between 125 and 129:


We always miss at least one color-coding, and this time it's Adley Rutschman, having a stalwart sophomore season for the Orioles.

This is more of an older guy bracket than what we've seen previously, with J.D. Martinez, Christian Walker, Nolan Arenado, Brandon Belt, the enigmatic Tommy Pham (who wasn't traded away at the deadline for once...) and Jorge Soler all residing here. But there are also plenty of interesting younger folk, many of whom can be expected to improve even more in the future: keep your eye on Lars Nootbaar and Christopher Morel.

And, finally, the fifth tier: those hitters with OPS+ in the 120-124 range:


Here's your bumper crop, with even more older players in tow: interesting to note that the Dodgers and the Red Sox essentially exchanged older players in their lineups this year (Justin Turner to Boston, J.D. Martinez--in the fourth tier with a 128 OPS+--to LA) and both of those oldsters have kept on keeping on.

Boston is still struggling, trapped in the tough AL East, but their patience with Tristan Casas seems to be paying off and they could well be a bigger force in things come next season. 

Note the 60-point range in OPS amongst the hitters with a 124 OPS+. That's because OPS+ is ballpark-adjusted: J.P. Crawford and Brent Rooker play in pitchers' parks (Seattle and Oakland), while Jarren Duran and Joey Votto play in hitters parks (Boston and Cincinnati). 

FROM which side of the plate do the top batters take their swings? Let's break it down in tiers; in the top tier (150+ OPS+), there are five LHB, seven RHB. In the second tier (140-49), there are three LHP, nine RHB. In the third tier (130-39) there are nine LHB, eleven RHB, and two switch-hitters. In the fourth tier (125-29), there are six LHB, eight RHB, and two switch hitters. In the fifth tier (120-24) there are fourteen LHB, twelve RHB and four switch-hitters. 

That adds up to 37 left-handed hitters, 47 right-handed hitters, and eight switch-hitters. 

We'll look at this again after the conclusion of the World Series...stay tuned.