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| The "double number 1's" really do speak for themselves... |
And so it's come to pass in these days that we have data for you, a compendium of team pitching stats that show the monthly progress (or its opposite) in the 2023 season. We previewed this a couple of weeks ago with a "proof of principle" display; now that June is in the books, we're going to serve it all up to you in two parts, beginning with the American League.
We'll begin with the AL Central, the semi-catastrophic division (the color coding really says it all).
Recall that the cells that are colored green are, in this case at least, sickly and bad (and probably riddled with woe as well: but woe was taken away from our beat in the latest downsizing, so we can't say for sure). There's a lot of green in the Royals' data here--it is probably leaping out at you right this minute--three cheers for the power of synchronistic persuasion. That's right: KC's starting pitchers are a combined 11-40 this year.
We're still not certain that the SP% (percent of innings thrown by starting pitchers) and Dec% (percent of decisions assigned to starters) are numbers that really tell us all that much, but we're going to try to find time to collect more data from previous years to see what we can find out.
The monthly progressions can tell us a good amount, however--for example, the White Sox are rebounding from their terrible April, thanks in large part to resurgence from their bullpen, which has been the best in the division over the past two months. It's a division that remains up for grabs, thanks in part to the failure of the Twins to capitalize on their solid pitching in May, which was followed by a "June swoon" from their starting pitchers.
On to the AL East, the "behemoth" division, where the "fearsome five" have been regressing to the mean...
The Rays and Jays played well in June, with Toronto getting its starting pitching back in shape after a shaky month of May; Tampa Bay got its bullpen back on track in June, offsetting a decline from their starters (due in part to a continuing skein of injuries).
The Orioles' starters remain a bit shaky, and their monthly records suggest that they have to address some overall performance issues from their staff lest they drift further downward (they lost 2 1/2 games in the standings to the first-place Rays in June).
Tampa clearly uses its bullpen much more than most AL teams, and that continues to work for them, as their relievers have racked up a 23-13 record despite pitching less effectively overall than their other big rivals, the New York Yankees, whose hitting woes went viral when Aaron Judge suffered a freak injury early in the month and has been out of the lineup ever since. The Yanks have the best bullpen in the league, but it's only 19-15 on the year due to an offense that has been unable to do its job in those games where the team is tied or a run or two behind. NYY has often vultured a lot of wins via their bullpen, running up .650+ WPCT from their relief staff; they'll have to step up noticeably to keep that pattern intact.
The Red Sox are slowly solving their starting pitcher problem (the emergence of Brayan Bello and the return of James Paxton are the key reasons for that) but the bullpen continues to flounder.
And now, the wild, wild West:
We have some funny displays in our PNG files...pay no attention to the weird patterns made by the man behind the curtain. The Astros looked to be gaining momentum in May, but things regressed this past month: injuries and inconsistency are a large part of that story.
Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table (but at the top of the standings...) the Rangers had a chance to run away with the AL West but suffered a downturn from their starters (who were 26-9 in the first two month of the season).
The Mariners' pitching tanked them in June, particularly an injury-riddled bullpen, while the Angels continue to have problems building a starting rotation around Shohei Ohtani.
And then there are those A's, who stunned everyone with a seven-game winning streak, bringing their pitching up from its pervasive rubble-strewn landscape (2-30 from the starters in April/May!) into the realm of the mediocre. (Well, almost mediocre: those OPS+ values are still rather hinky.)
The AL West was 11 games under .500 in June, which is not in the realm of the type of clobbering that the AL Central absorbed (-24), but it's not good. We'll take a look at just how the NL flipped the script in interleague play later in the week; tomorrow, brace yourself for their "monthly pitching role results summary" as you await the next round of popping noises that will continue to pervade a uniquely interminable holiday weekend. Earplugs, anyone?
