(LONG time no see...life is hectic and fraught on many levels: we can only hope that the chaotic events that continue to plague us here in Amerika will not disrupt or dislodge our so-called National Pastime...)
The long table (at right) captures OPS values for hitting with 0, 1, and 2 outs over time: the source (of course) is Forman et soeur (that's Baseball Reference to the rest of you).
Color coding here is as follows: 1) orange-shaded areas show seasons in AL and NL were OPS values with 0 outs meet or exceed .750 (among other things, providing us with a vibrant identification of the long "offensive explosion" from 1993-2009);
2) green-shaded areas show seasons where OPS values with 0 outs are less than .700 (clustering in the expanded strike zone era of1963-68, and cratering in 1968--but lingering intermittently into the 1980s);
3) seasons where the OPS values with 1 or 2 outs are higher than the OPS value with 0 out are shown in red type;
4) seasons where the league ratio of 2-out OPS is higher than 100% compared to 0-out OPS are shown in bold type and highlighted in yellow (as will be clear from a full examination of the table, this is extremely rare, occurring in only two seasons--NL 2022 and AL 1984--over the sixty-six years of data);
...and, finally, 5) extremely low league ratios of 2-out OPS values to 0-out OPS values are shown in green type.
WE ordered the data in reverse historical order so that the reader might more easily pinpoint the accelerating occurrence of low 2-out OPS to 0-out OPS ratios. Not all ratios lower than .950 (meaning a greater than 5% drop...) are highlighted, but the first strikingly low ratio occurs in NL 2006, followed by a increasingly frequency of incidence over the most recent twenty years.
In the current decade, there has been some level of retrenchment: the even-numbered full seasons (2022 and 2024, years in which HR/G totals swung downward) returned these ratios more into overall historical alignment, but there is greater year-to-year volatility in the data than ever before.
The average ratio of 2-out OPS to 0-out OPS over the sixty-six seasons is .965 (actually, .965 in the AL, .964 in the NL), meaning that offensive production has had a pervasive decline of 3.5% when hitters hit with 2 outs. To understand the dynamics of this in a systematic way, we'd need to see if there are consistent patterns in sub-details of the data, such as inning-by-inning ratios--is the drop greater in late innings, and is that driving the 21st-century decline in the 2-out to 0-out ratio? (Forman et soeur does not provide data at that level of detail, but we will ask...)
WHAT we can do at this point, though, is show you how the basic data has shifted over time. At left are the decade-by-decade averages for the 2-out to 0-out OPS ratio (along with breakouts for two longer historical ranges: 1960-1989 and 1990-2025). Focus on the "delta 0-d" columns for each league and notice where the decade-level changes occur. While the NL ratio starts to drop in the 1980s, both leagues experience a significant downturn even as offense surges in the 1990s (a reflection of some form of change in hitting strategy, perhaps?).
The general downturn in offense in the 10s and 20s has not brought the ratio back up to its pre-1990 levels, and we can see in the three-decade breakouts (1960-1989, 1990-2025) that the gap in the 2-out to 0-out OPS ratio has doubled (from 2.5% to around 4.5%).
WE'LL need to look at what team-level data can tell us--whether, for example, the pitching staffs of teas that make the post-season are getting better at getting the third out relative to the league--to see if we can determine why this is happening, but it looks clear that this is not a case of random variation (despite the year-to-year fluctuations). And a more systematic look at the often-ignored "contextual stats" (runs scored and RBI) might reveal something about the change, which might relate to the slow desiccation of the "long-sequence offense" despite the ups and downs of offensive levels.
So we close by quoting that noted philosopher Stephen Stills (pithier and far more of an MVP in his wayward way than our overly-exalted high-school classmate Michael Sandel, ironically lionized for devising a simperingly perverse but ultimately empty form of "communitarian[ist] condescension"...) in the charismatic guitarist's signature moment of confused clarity--"there's something happening here...what is it ain't exactly clear"--as today we watch more of the world burn for no good reason, and look for solace wherever we can find it...even in the wishing well of baseball statistics (where there is more truth to be found than in Sandel's philosophy).
The hole we have dug ourselves is even deeper than that wishing well, but regaining our (metaphorical) ability to hit with two outs is now as crucial to our life on this planet as it is for the ongoing health of what we still (quaintly) call "the National Pastime"...
