tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-69157845423666090882024-03-18T08:06:33.844-07:00BIG BAD BASEBALLThe one. The only. The lost art of the diatribe.Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comBlogger1089125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-91410508710808679042024-03-16T22:37:00.000-07:002024-03-18T08:06:03.099-07:00SHAMELESS SHAMS, PART 69B: WILL ANYONE SIGN TREVOR BAUER? <p>SOMEWHERE in the unwritten rules of baseball there is a floating clause that has wrapped itself around the pineal gland of stuffed shirts and hypocrites who populate virtually all echelons of the game/business--from the executives who run it, to the sportswriters who cover it, and even to the players' union. It reads as follows: "Thou shall not have rough sex with predatory women even if their charges against you are false."</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig9F0laUHCsdJRh-AHthN2dUo5CmAZpA59938mUrADMHod9cIxn_Clsixok51ZC8CNzOKJeYZJfzpnsAmSqcN6PVVK05-n8qcPKEVd0B8IhyphenhyphenNZDPNXh3upF18iB2n6GVABwIkBNUO70Bs-lXqQMShROy_nUK-SDo9EZokZIEFj0iXCj66wkCPZXJesQ7g/s900/unnamed.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="369" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig9F0laUHCsdJRh-AHthN2dUo5CmAZpA59938mUrADMHod9cIxn_Clsixok51ZC8CNzOKJeYZJfzpnsAmSqcN6PVVK05-n8qcPKEVd0B8IhyphenhyphenNZDPNXh3upF18iB2n6GVABwIkBNUO70Bs-lXqQMShROy_nUK-SDo9EZokZIEFj0iXCj66wkCPZXJesQ7g/w369-h369/unnamed.jpg" width="369" /></a></div><b>Trevor Bauer</b> is assuredly not the first baseball player to have had rough sex: he's just the one that was reckless enough to not properly screen the offers he was receiving, with what (naturally enough) proved to be spectacularly catastrophic circumstances.<p></p><p>The powers that be are so concerned about maintain a squeaky-clean image that they piled on Bauer even after there were no charges filed against him, only lawsuits. Such behavior was to be expected from <b>Rob Manfred</b>, of course, because there is no decision or event horizon in baseball over which he can't find a way to take the most expedient yet somehow self-contradictory overreaction while simultaneously coddling miscreant owners like <b>John Fisher</b> (the man who should be barred from baseball for two lifetimes). </p><p>(Manfred would fit right in on the Supreme Court, where he would demonstrate that his "balls and strikes calling" would be at least as inept as that of the Chief Justice and his phalanx of feckless Federalist Society fraudsters--at least one of whom, by the way, is accused of sexual crimes significantly more serious than the accusations made--but never proved--against Bauer.)</p><p>BUT, yes, let's get back to Bauer--talking about many of those in positions of decision-making power in this country is dispiriting at best...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLLKxZS8yk024qLJYnLIDmyMiR62nfL_Yeid4QmUdgfNmAwXMj13ESDNnlkSvxYkCIPre_Nn2ICBPraSnUk10IxeAE2ATiaBgmjdKUAEkK52VeCwpH17iTcR5aQg33jT-xtIH23MbHZfa_sFs4IoXOV2QVaIYsGD9jS7oA45iuBlRYpPT0emfma-l1O2o/s1200/photo_l.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="960" height="437" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLLKxZS8yk024qLJYnLIDmyMiR62nfL_Yeid4QmUdgfNmAwXMj13ESDNnlkSvxYkCIPre_Nn2ICBPraSnUk10IxeAE2ATiaBgmjdKUAEkK52VeCwpH17iTcR5aQg33jT-xtIH23MbHZfa_sFs4IoXOV2QVaIYsGD9jS7oA45iuBlRYpPT0emfma-l1O2o/w350-h437/photo_l.jpg" width="350" /></a></div>Bauer was suspended for two years (324 games), which was reduced by an independent (read: at least semi-rational) arbitrator, was released in early 2023, and did the most logical (rational!) thing he could do under the circumstances--he went to play in Japan, where, after a rough start, he rounded into form and pitched well in 24 starts (11-4, 2.59 ERA). <p></p><p>He has come back to the USA, admitted he made reckless choices in his life, and owned up to his abrasive personality. Of late he's expressed willingness to pitch for the major league minimum in order to demonstrate some additional contrition for creating a <i>cause celèbre</i> in an area that baseball (and a sizable portion of folk in America's schizoid, Puritanical but sex-on-the-brain culture) just can't handle. </p><p>All of that has, naturally enough, left him effectively blackballed. Meanwhile, players with actual domestic violence charges and prior suspensions (<b>Domingo German</b>, to name just one) are allowed back into the game. </p><p>IT is, of course, a shameless sham being perpetrated by a group of baseball insiders--including the players' union, which should be at least noting that they are following this situation carefully and will intervene on Bauer's behalf if he is barred from the game without any such official announcement (one that, of course, would instantly produce litigation that MLB would lose). </p><p>Just as the Hall of Fame decided to cynically change its rules to hasten the blackballing of <b>Barry Bonds </b>and <b>Roger Clemens</b>, so the hypocrites in charge of "baseball policy decisions" are cynically following the strategies of a certain would-be dictator and hope to run out the clock on Trevor Bauer, figuring that if they play dodgeball with him long enough, he'll just be "aged out" of the rest of his career. </p><p>As noted--a shameless sham.</p><p>SO are there any franchises among the thirty major league monopolists who might defy their already lame-duck Commissioner? Pitching injuries seem to be increasing due to factors involving newly-fashioned pitches and mechanics that create greater stress and higher risk of arm damage: given that, every team should be interested in acquired an additional healthy arm. (Except the Dodgers, of course, who've made it clear that Bauer is <i>persona non grata</i> to them. ) </p><p>Some teams, of course, might decide that they have sufficient quality that they don't need to pursue Bauer. But that doesn't describe every team in MLB: so we can identify the teams that should want to investigate all possible sources of top-level talent (and Bauer meets that definition)...they are <i>either</i> ones with the most serious incursions of injury <i>or</i> those with a demonstrable shortage of quality.</p><p>Let's look at just who might fall into those categories.</p><p>Teams with injury issues above and beyond the norm--in the AL East: Tampa Bay, New York; in the AL Central: Minnesota; in the AL West: Houston; in the NL East: New York; in the NL Central: St. Louis; in the NL West: San Diego.</p><p>Teams with a dearth of top-level talent--in the AL East: Boston; in AL Central: Chicago, Kansas City; in the AL West: Oakland; in the NL East: Miami; in the NL Central: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh (who just signed Domingo German...); in the NL West: Colorado.</p><p>ADD that up and <u>there are fifteen (15) teams who should be willing to give Trevor Bauer a chance</u> to pitch for them in 2024.</p><p>That's half of baseball...</p><p>Of course, most of these franchises are sheep-like when it comes to such "cultural" matters, and are terminally unwilling to rock the boat. That removes most of your "flyover country" teams, all but the ones with <i>serious</i> pitching problems, so let's leave in the White Sox and the Rockies as teams that might realistically decide that they have nothing to lose by bringing Bauer in to shore up shaky rotations. </p><p>We should also leave in the New York teams, with the Mets being more likely to do so because they have a shoot-from-the-hip owner in <b>Steve Cohen</b>. But the Yankees have a hole in the top of their rotation, and there's a media world there that would love to have such a story to cover--particularly if Bauer were to fail (for whatever reason). We can't be sure that this would sway the more staid incarnation of the Steinbrenner ownership dynasty--but one more injury to a starting pitcher might tip the balance.</p><p>Tampa Bay is a franchise that often bucks established edicts, though most of those seem to be analytical and not sociological in nature; still, their need for extra rotation arms might permit them to consider giving Bauer a look-see. Miami is likewise a place where lurid behavior is more conspicuously on display than in other metropolitan areas of the country, and they too might buck the "circle the moralistic wagons" policy if only to create/entice additional local interest from the "friskier" portion of their fan base. </p><p>As for fan bases, Oakland's is perfect for a Bauer landing place--but the meretricious meta-collusion between Manfred and Fisher makes that a total non-starter. And San Diego is probably off the table as well, for more prosaic inter-franchise reasons: this is probably the decisive year for <b>A.J. Preller's</b> pursuit of the playoffs, which needs to pay off in a post-season berth or else his goose is most likely parboiled--which means he can't afford to take a quixotic gamble on a controversial player whose failure might be seen as one of the reasons the team fell short.</p><p>What about the Red Sox, you say? There's a first-year GM (<b>Craig Breslow</b>) there, who is already proceeding with excessive caution. So even though they could use Bauer, it won't happen unless owner <b>John Henry</b> gets a wild hair in that NSFW location. <br /></p><p>SO--that leaves the two New York clubs, the Rockies (who could justifiably note that they always need pitching), the White Sox (<b>Jerry Reinsdorf</b> might be persuaded to toss Manfred a middle-finger move of this type...), the Rays and the Fish, and, finally, the Astros (likewise with an owner ready to poke Manfred in the eye and a team with serious pitching injuries). </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgtusxRgEhPVLOLSRd5agr5DNOeGyGkbpa48cqlCGtIliJ0qlkAtynLo80xB7EgaCJRwvsoZPTM9MQ91-QvuIQEONB_rmuJlJ8mYRbxjke5D9DjThDEXTdvax-t5aCEDY3kjVwAc5gxyf8aCsenT9Xb5yiPVHafGkOMx6gGdgIt0oHvJXhdhuvGHvJS9w/s1500/Veeck-Paige-1948.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1096" data-original-width="1500" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgtusxRgEhPVLOLSRd5agr5DNOeGyGkbpa48cqlCGtIliJ0qlkAtynLo80xB7EgaCJRwvsoZPTM9MQ91-QvuIQEONB_rmuJlJ8mYRbxjke5D9DjThDEXTdvax-t5aCEDY3kjVwAc5gxyf8aCsenT9Xb5yiPVHafGkOMx6gGdgIt0oHvJXhdhuvGHvJS9w/w429-h313/Veeck-Paige-1948.jpg" width="429" /></a></div>Those are the seven teams that, in our estimation, <i>should</i> be willing to take a flyer on Bauer, despite the unspoken blackball situation that is clearly in place at the moment.<p></p><p>Come on, you clowns, <i>someone</i> give Bauer a chance to either redeem himself or go down in flames if he either can't cut it in terms of changing his persona or being able to pitch well enough to warrant a slot in MLB. For f*ck's sake, where is <b>Bill Veeck</b> when you <i>really</i> need him?</p><p>As we always say at this point: stay tuned...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-20642722415528872412024-03-12T23:36:00.000-07:002024-03-13T11:02:50.969-07:00CIRCLING THE ROUND NUMBERS/1: A VARIANT FOR "IMMACULATE GRID"?<p>WE'RE not sure this will really work, but let's give it a try anyway...</p><p>Many of you are familiar with <b>Forman et soeur's</b> <b><a href="https://www.immaculategrid.com/?utm_source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_campaign=2023_01_srnav" target="_blank">Immaculate Grid</a></b>, a game of baseball memory that's been doing a good job of keeping a certain class of deadbeat <i>occupado</i> and off the streets for nearly a year now. </p><p>We were just noodling around one evening with the IG model and looking for something that might make for an intriguing variant to it. And then it struck us: baseball records, as a stack of raw numbers, are quite often attached to "round numbers"--you know, data that ends with one, two, or three zeroes at the end of it:</p><p>For example--3000 hits, 500 HRs, 100 RBI, and so on.</p><p>So we thought a game where the round numbers dictated the answers might make for an intriguing new twist on the Immaculate Grid. </p><p>BUT before we work through some of the ways the game might actually be structured, it's probably a good idea to display a chart that will help you visualize the data:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUQ-RfYRDGMMWt1v2_FvTHSMod2HFxm5x7zkS6kVIw1LSgBxou1R072y_c0ThQ80nerDThtspMOsCg_dKmudN6VN5gGdR-WHc-sOIL2D_OKbsyTTLIN1UOwdNqZlVvkARRXAuGKz9BE2PC9IbqqzoeNDYe0HeG-5d6VjmL9wr8sPIDEXZ1ZxHbGaLVzvU/s2250/Rd%20Number%20Lists--HRs%203-12-24%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="2250" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUQ-RfYRDGMMWt1v2_FvTHSMod2HFxm5x7zkS6kVIw1LSgBxou1R072y_c0ThQ80nerDThtspMOsCg_dKmudN6VN5gGdR-WHc-sOIL2D_OKbsyTTLIN1UOwdNqZlVvkARRXAuGKz9BE2PC9IbqqzoeNDYe0HeG-5d6VjmL9wr8sPIDEXZ1ZxHbGaLVzvU/w640-h136/Rd%20Number%20Lists--HRs%203-12-24%20png.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>So we are looking at lifetime home runs using round number "anchors"--200, 300, 400...all the way up to 700. Te idea is to fill in the player who has the closest possible number to the round number "anchor." For homers, these names represent the best answers.</div><div>BUT it's likely that few folks will know all of the closest possible numbers off the top of their head. (The idea here is not to look up the answers before playing, but to use your memory of the category to come up with the best possible answer "off the top of your head."</div><div><br /></div><div>We've also shown the exact matches--players whose careers actually ended on a round number of homers--in the column shaded in green at the right.</div><div><br /></div><div>The game is scored by the lowest possible difference in between the chosen player on either side of the round number. So we total this up and we have a differential of 17 at the 700 homer level, followed by a differential of 23 at six hundred; then 11 (4+7) at the 500 level. Things get tighter at four hundred, which has a differential of just three. And of course 300 and 200 actually have exact matches, so they don't add anything more to the best possible differential.</div><div><br /></div><div>Adding those differentials up, you get 17+23+11+3=54 as the best possible score. (As you can see, the lower the score, the better!) </div><div><br /></div><div>STILL with us on this? The interface would allow you to enter a name, and it could even give you three names to choose from (without revealing the actual homer total of anyone until you pick one of them). </div><div><br /></div><div>After you've made your choices for all the round number "anchors," the game would sum up your differential and compare it to the best possible score. </div><div><br /></div><div>JUST to get the idea across more strongly, let's take a look at another such chart--this one is for lifetime doubles:</div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ6X4FBU6tAsla0_zHL3mjd4TknpXV349BISN8CoF97APEleqtaY-1sBiRvKWk7UdxdjEKuRrmo1536pORoAFtq_lFvhV_AzdIyxi3cksuGOkcWv_Ohta4sRppaa9v5lo7v5FnXEitou-l9UDwhmywYB9OD5pYiS48_s7U4LrdoPxkBlkfqhCBR56L6h4/s2250/Rd%20Number%20Lists-Doubles%203-12-24%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="2250" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ6X4FBU6tAsla0_zHL3mjd4TknpXV349BISN8CoF97APEleqtaY-1sBiRvKWk7UdxdjEKuRrmo1536pORoAFtq_lFvhV_AzdIyxi3cksuGOkcWv_Ohta4sRppaa9v5lo7v5FnXEitou-l9UDwhmywYB9OD5pYiS48_s7U4LrdoPxkBlkfqhCBR56L6h4/w640-h144/Rd%20Number%20Lists-Doubles%203-12-24%20png.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>For this variation, you've got a situation where the top round number anchor has no corresponding player on the the "plus" side. There are several ways that this could be handled in the scoring, but one way would be to penalize the total score by adding 50 points to the score whenever you provide an "answer" where none exists. </div><div><br /></div><div>Let's figure out the best possible score here, to help you get the hang of it. Best differential at 800 is 8 (<b>Tris Speaker's</b> mind-bending total of 792 lifetime doubles). Then you have 24+14=38 at 700. Things get tighter starting at six hundred (the cumulative differential is just 5). And from 500 down to 300 you have an exact match possibility, so the "best possible" differential for doubles is: 8+38+5=51.</div><div><br /></div><div>SO there you have it. There can be a lot of variations for the scoring mechanism: for example, the round number anchor could be 25, 50, 75--thus, 225, 325, 425, 525, etc. for this category. There should be enough different counting stats available for use to keep the game fresh. </div><div><br /></div><div>The actual data points are intrinsically interesting even if they have no actual analytical value. (Which, of course, is also the case for IG--these are just meant for mind-twisting as we await the end of the world™.) We're going to compile charts like the ones above for a range of lifetime stats, and display more of them as the 2024 baseball season progresses. Stay tuned...</div>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-84548160339094906132024-03-04T20:33:00.000-08:002024-03-05T06:18:16.063-08:00RUBICON FOR THE RELIQUARY<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixzP8lbwPMuhUwTVKNkOduoqMZifU9y1j5zP6-U9GMtfGOrsIMQx34n2uY_BN3V4L7U23Iu5AMWS6LjOs6etZQzDOox04tSINeCyiUlDVuOuvbOR_PgMGPlH1F2WKN-yiHwIDPHVxsDczqlbhZswJ7HSHM_fc9gckV5ffIWyzZV11LhAhlLNldDpZIwiY/s604/terry-cannon.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="604" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixzP8lbwPMuhUwTVKNkOduoqMZifU9y1j5zP6-U9GMtfGOrsIMQx34n2uY_BN3V4L7U23Iu5AMWS6LjOs6etZQzDOox04tSINeCyiUlDVuOuvbOR_PgMGPlH1F2WKN-yiHwIDPHVxsDczqlbhZswJ7HSHM_fc9gckV5ffIWyzZV11LhAhlLNldDpZIwiY/s320/terry-cannon.png" width="320" /></a></div>THE transition for the Baseball Reliquary since the death of <b>Terry Cannon</b> in 2020 has been slow and arduous: its charismatic yet oddly inscrutable creator literally was the glue for an anti-organization that continually challenged and celebrated the double-edged world of baseball. Cannon was the conduit and catalyst that took an impish art project and built it into a viable (if still somewhat unlikely) alternative to the increasingly bloated, bathetic Hall of Fame.<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkHzpIQ_ATrz1_kFpQaUlRqAj-Jge94zEzC_XFeVEutTZYOmqyRx0_dl_wSBmCPuBqeG2-xVkItf8wegUmLaX0ct04pdLRU_JI-AvDqNBmPZzbVw068PghSkUoGuqiRZXqdTNesAd3jMCN6V9qOmNukcwXaeqXo1k8NadDnFrI1W6VQNTfp8lAgh6TWhY/s291/the-baseball-reliquary-291x250.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="250" data-original-width="291" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkHzpIQ_ATrz1_kFpQaUlRqAj-Jge94zEzC_XFeVEutTZYOmqyRx0_dl_wSBmCPuBqeG2-xVkItf8wegUmLaX0ct04pdLRU_JI-AvDqNBmPZzbVw068PghSkUoGuqiRZXqdTNesAd3jMCN6V9qOmNukcwXaeqXo1k8NadDnFrI1W6VQNTfp8lAgh6TWhY/w200-h172/the-baseball-reliquary-291x250.png" width="200" /></a></div>How do you put such an anti-organization into some kind of institutional framework without destroying its unique aura? Terry Cannon attracted several sidekicks and many admirers, particularly after his invention of the Shrine of the Eternals, which we've championed here on numerous occasions as "Cooperstown for the rest of us." <div><br /></div><div>But none of those folk--from Cannon's long-time collaborators on art and history programs to the now-in-charge team of <b>Joe Price</b> and Terry's devoted wife Mary--have shown the type of creative resolve that is needed to establish the Reliquary in what is now a changed world. <br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuw00XA3fDYgPOhJtdspi7AF1sgSZI2gO167HbTsqmiRPEaG1jCmOl7ctpP2kOlYy05LTFNW1xsfP9gQUBP5hz9cWfAgC8AYb9hWxfhzWXneV1Wxpg2wvrA0Dv3tcx1nTO7553E0U-KqrTNNV-ziL7pLjC-lD7FnCUkBl4OiAA8Anny-HHX1VGlbK4Ss0/s1196/Keynote%201.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1196" data-original-width="920" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuw00XA3fDYgPOhJtdspi7AF1sgSZI2gO167HbTsqmiRPEaG1jCmOl7ctpP2kOlYy05LTFNW1xsfP9gQUBP5hz9cWfAgC8AYb9hWxfhzWXneV1Wxpg2wvrA0Dv3tcx1nTO7553E0U-KqrTNNV-ziL7pLjC-lD7FnCUkBl4OiAA8Anny-HHX1VGlbK4Ss0/w153-h200/Keynote%201.png" width="153" /></a></div>One key sidekick--<b>Albert Kilchesty</b>--has sadly pushed himself out of contention to maintain the aura that Cannon embodied. The original collaboration of "Terry and Buddy," combining the surreal with dead-earnest cultural anthropology, was essential to the multivalent strands of the Reliquary's endeavors. <p></p><p></p>We characterized their partnership (in an allusion uttered during our keynote speech in 2009, reproduced here for those who love tiny type...) as two boys with the magical power to let go of their balloons at the beach while strolling the shore, confident in the knowledge that somehow they would reach up and magically retrieve them without a second thought. <div><br /></div><div>How on earth can you institutionalize something that operates in such gleeful defiance of natural law?<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLm896N3_ow96Q4fFA3sjqsSndPKKO4dt_8eD5iBkChclEGjlV7AfA2Rm0LBGJJpfpuzmCYYMe7-MMObmQKaus-EoIQiNHE_8ylora_avUp272uraUKROpfy0B5WETAziZanGEfoKZjr4x8_Y6bLcNdorLQUDXmSncxxuGjayFvQfAv4y2fVrY7rtQ5ms/s1192/Keynote%202.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1192" data-original-width="920" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLm896N3_ow96Q4fFA3sjqsSndPKKO4dt_8eD5iBkChclEGjlV7AfA2Rm0LBGJJpfpuzmCYYMe7-MMObmQKaus-EoIQiNHE_8ylora_avUp272uraUKROpfy0B5WETAziZanGEfoKZjr4x8_Y6bLcNdorLQUDXmSncxxuGjayFvQfAv4y2fVrY7rtQ5ms/w154-h200/Keynote%202.png" width="154" /></a></div>Such could only exist in such a form so long as the original creator was alive to embody it. We mean no offense to Joe Price when we say that his attempt to channel Terry during the Reliquary's 2023 Shrine of the Eternals event was a well-intentioned but ill-advised failure. While the "art project" aspect of the Reliquary still appears to be on solid ground, the loss of momentum with the Shrine of the Eternals points to a "Rubicon moment" for the ongoing viability and sustainability of Cannon's vision.<p></p><p>IN fact, there were some cracks in the Shrine of the Eternals concept that Terry had not addressed in the years immediately prior to his tragic bout with cancer. Cannon and Kilchesty began with an inspired combination of inductees that ran the gamut from the historically overlooked to the downright zany; from the culturally relevant "in the now" to the great players who'd been shunned (or banned) by Cooperstown. But for more than a decade, the Shrine drifted away from that last category of inductee--in particular those individuals from the dawn of the game who were in danger of being completely forgotten. </p><p>The three years of lost balloting have also taken a heavy toll. For the Shrine to return to full force, and to address some of the areas that had even escaped Terry's attention, an intervention into the original design of the Shrine is desperately needed to jump-start a renewed awareness of its potency as a viable alternative to Cooperstown. </p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDoefrIJH5RqUlT-xE582SIy0MNHvTpLHjl0IMid7lRm_B6zOLxix4xj_N8Tm9Bzb9zbxUKh3UTMMyamgB7-9_BIQGI3mM2NHkgC8NbNfroPjpZ4cFpYDHD4rptLN67mDRfJSXdF66-FDcWxz8qCKzTR24WNErzZLT02BLe5Vv0J0Kn5jl1MWQPX5irwY/s248/davidnemec.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="248" data-original-width="200" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDoefrIJH5RqUlT-xE582SIy0MNHvTpLHjl0IMid7lRm_B6zOLxix4xj_N8Tm9Bzb9zbxUKh3UTMMyamgB7-9_BIQGI3mM2NHkgC8NbNfroPjpZ4cFpYDHD4rptLN67mDRfJSXdF66-FDcWxz8qCKzTR24WNErzZLT02BLe5Vv0J0Kn5jl1MWQPX5irwY/w137-h169/davidnemec.jpg" width="137" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>David Nemec</i></td></tr></tbody></table>Here are the actions that we propose in order to do that:<p></p><p>--First, create a special class of "Eternal" that involves those who embody the Reliquary's commitment to pioneering research. (Given that the Reliquary is now formally aligned with Whittier College and is umbrellaed into an arrangement with its Institute of Baseball Studies, this makes eminent sense.) </p><p>We suggested this in our 2020 post after Terry's passing, proposing that Cannon, pioneering nineteenth-century historian <b>David Nemec</b>, and pre-eminent baseball lexicographer <b>Paul Dickson</b> be enshrined as this special class of "Eternal." </p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwGxpqQVCRrtyc4REleBJSRQZ7I01d23xy78u7OFqkaPFo1W1C0c2N_Pc1e3Sd7uEkvL1e9ZW6pF4IivER7mH_5G978hAlfW5tyBFFe9c_Bkrw13YwimWvQIvFIcGviZIU6Ltv45cPSUO2MSP-RUvBVP5kt0z9AVnGvwZwgZesI8Vtg6k5R6q9ol7rT34/s266/pauldickson.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="266" data-original-width="177" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwGxpqQVCRrtyc4REleBJSRQZ7I01d23xy78u7OFqkaPFo1W1C0c2N_Pc1e3Sd7uEkvL1e9ZW6pF4IivER7mH_5G978hAlfW5tyBFFe9c_Bkrw13YwimWvQIvFIcGviZIU6Ltv45cPSUO2MSP-RUvBVP5kt0z9AVnGvwZwgZesI8Vtg6k5R6q9ol7rT34/w108-h162/pauldickson.jpg" width="108" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Paul Dickson</i></td></tr></tbody></table>(These men are true giants in the field, eminently deserving of such special recognition. And, of course, Terry is an "eternal" for having invented the Shrine of the Eternals...)<p></p><p>From this point forward, the Reliquary can reserve the right to induct additional "special Eternals" based on its own discretion--but limited to the area of enhancing baseball knowledge. </p><p>--<b><u>Second</u></b>, address the paucity of nineteenth-century representation in the Shrine by announcing a set of special elections to add three players and/or relevant historical personages from that era per year for the next three-to-five years. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4g1h0wdACvl-chXBq2wOW3FuU88XnwCK4fziAH0DvOov4dgb_zan1lRIWGx5lmcN4t0bIeICWGPVFmMx5r1DMjMp9wGT-JwZXRMLBsJ_Njn6aLTd2n_iJ5TvUzlzC_c8du65vu8YBwptBp3aAZ60QAw_7_zU40VZOdg-fhc-RWiXVxLhliVy4qI4wnYU/s401/caruthers.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="401" data-original-width="230" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4g1h0wdACvl-chXBq2wOW3FuU88XnwCK4fziAH0DvOov4dgb_zan1lRIWGx5lmcN4t0bIeICWGPVFmMx5r1DMjMp9wGT-JwZXRMLBsJ_Njn6aLTd2n_iJ5TvUzlzC_c8du65vu8YBwptBp3aAZ60QAw_7_zU40VZOdg-fhc-RWiXVxLhliVy4qI4wnYU/w115-h200/caruthers.jpg" width="115" /></a></div>A list of qualified candidates is already in hand within the second volume of David Nemec's magisterial <i>Major League Baseball Profiles 1871-1900</i> (second volume), where he lists twenty individuals who are clearly deserving of a slot in Cooperstown. <p></p><p>The Reliquary can get the jump on the Hall of Fame by enshrining individuals such as <b>Jim Creighton</b> (baseball's tragic first superstar), <b>Bob Caruthers</b> (the greatest of the two-way players in the nineteenth century), and <b>Doc Adams</b> (the pioneer of the game who, among other elemental acts, set the distances between the bases).**</p><p>--<u><b>Third</b></u>, revamp its 2024 ballot with an additional brace of names featuring players who are currently shunned by Cooperstown. In its early, somewhat rowdier days (possibly egged on by the fiery side of Buddy Kilchesty), the Reliquary saw fit to admit <b>Joe Jackson</b> and <b>Pete Rose</b> into the Shrine, in part to forgive, but also to stir up some dust with institutional puffery. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRMhNOaVYgi2eO2CSxltsaBGCoLxVr1OvElpegMGX1gPEYprXiA8hh5XjsH7_YtdZXzobk_uVkFi_m8di2jsSmYCNDdVgpRQHBw5LbYDwLuVugZYmuKLQ6xBcrMmR01-0qYMVDjKh4kQC2I9tj6x4nBZW-rjiB5HPyScxZ1GpBcdX6-BY8GqmOOJ9V0Fs/s1196/Keynote%203.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1196" data-original-width="922" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRMhNOaVYgi2eO2CSxltsaBGCoLxVr1OvElpegMGX1gPEYprXiA8hh5XjsH7_YtdZXzobk_uVkFi_m8di2jsSmYCNDdVgpRQHBw5LbYDwLuVugZYmuKLQ6xBcrMmR01-0qYMVDjKh4kQC2I9tj6x4nBZW-rjiB5HPyScxZ1GpBcdX6-BY8GqmOOJ9V0Fs/w154-h200/Keynote%203.png" width="154" /></a></div>For 2024, then, the names of several shunned all-time greats--Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens--should be added to the candidate list with the announcement that <u>for the next three election cycles, a total of five Eternals will be inducted per year</u>, which in 2027 will bring the total back to what it would have been save for the issues that ground things to a halt in 2021-23 and prevented the usual yearly elections. <p></p><p>To leaven this idea from being seen as a present-day gimmick, we recommend that a slate of "shunned second basemen"--<b>Bobby Grich</b>, <b>Lou Whitaker</b>, <b>Jeff Kent</b>, <b>Larry Doyle</b>--also be added to the ballot to remind the Reliquary's voting population that they can make their voices heard in ways that are both tangible and relevant with respect to the ongoing myopia of the Hall of Fame.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcVAeK_NVn4Jk5xCtz34C7QLFm9rADHdP5AHW4dOTxmEXIrBCNwMaN_AZendVyNsCajfnMMBLNjvhugIRtB_ikvPjSuBKW5-HQeeMNWWVAjpMVi-PhIBxEnMD_w1REPzCqtzcIZbHC_NBLMh_91SrjL-_BCnUDNm-nf4b7SMebEJFSvbsLjyVcCMXfNSU/s1194/Keynote%204.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1194" data-original-width="916" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcVAeK_NVn4Jk5xCtz34C7QLFm9rADHdP5AHW4dOTxmEXIrBCNwMaN_AZendVyNsCajfnMMBLNjvhugIRtB_ikvPjSuBKW5-HQeeMNWWVAjpMVi-PhIBxEnMD_w1REPzCqtzcIZbHC_NBLMh_91SrjL-_BCnUDNm-nf4b7SMebEJFSvbsLjyVcCMXfNSU/w153-h200/Keynote%204.png" width="153" /></a></div>ALL of these actions will add a dynamism to the Shrine that has been lacking for some time--and it will make the yearly ceremony into something that truly balances substance with showmanship. <p></p><p>That latter quality is difficult to produce on demand, of course, because there are only a handful of people who can balance all of the tonalities between surreal silliness to serious critical/cultural reverence/relevance the way that Terry Cannon did for a quarter-century. </p><p>By adding more specific categories to the candidate selection process, and providing a faster path for neglected areas of baseball history, the current Baseball Reliquary brain trust can create a "safety in numbers" scenario that will ensure a more robust and more varied combination of content at its annual events--which will provide added visibility.</p><p>FOR it is the Shrine of the Eternals that is the best way for the Baseball Reliquary to capture the imaginations of those seeking a more freewheeling, more joyous, less pompous and less institutional celebration of baseball. These tweaks and augmentations are urgently needed to reinvigorate the Shrine as that "place of grace" for baseball lovers who want an expanded consciousness of the game's beauty and significance. <br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKTca4XKBIcByY9SImP3_P8F4IExh5OygFMCOtZ2Zv5oTLfc7GEjxzHtCGOjwHLwZ-EyIvlvJZ56WRKoe_Vr4rrA8EQ_7EQo5mCDy_KLTFP_-D8RpizNxMXASKCQHWQ1uRaMxg8ReHx-i7IVNCeBdMR3_eL6_ms_sc3mWOI8Ke8JcbgF5vxfJdbGVtjnM/s1196/Keynote%205.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1196" data-original-width="924" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKTca4XKBIcByY9SImP3_P8F4IExh5OygFMCOtZ2Zv5oTLfc7GEjxzHtCGOjwHLwZ-EyIvlvJZ56WRKoe_Vr4rrA8EQ_7EQo5mCDy_KLTFP_-D8RpizNxMXASKCQHWQ1uRaMxg8ReHx-i7IVNCeBdMR3_eL6_ms_sc3mWOI8Ke8JcbgF5vxfJdbGVtjnM/w154-h200/Keynote%205.png" width="154" /></a></div>It is, of course, far from certain that these proposed ideas will get incorporated into the planning for the Reliquary's 2024 event. But there is an urgency at this moment in time to create a more dynamic path forward, one that can create a strong, flexible institutional structure for an anti-organization that was juggled masterfully by a man no longer here to show us how to let go of a balloon, run down the seashore of imagination, and reach up to bring that fleeting, flittering, capricious object back into his as if by magic. <p></p><p>We need that magic to survive, even if we have to make Terry's trick more just a bit more prosaic. The time to take the bold steps to make that happen is now: we cross our fingers. Stay tuned...</p><p>---</p><p>**The full list of David Nemec's "Twenty for the Hall of Fame" as presented in <i>Major League Baseball Profiles 1871-1900 </i>is as follows: <b><u>Doc Adams</u></b>, <b><u>Ross Barnes</u></b>, <b>Charlie Bennett</b>, <b><u>Pete Browning</u></b>, <b><u>Bob Caruthers</u>,</b> <b><u>Jim Creighton</u></b>, <b><u>Bill Dahlen</u></b>, <b>Bob Ferguson</b>, <b><u>Jack Glasscock</u></b>, <b>Ed McKean</b>, <b>A.G. Mills</b>, <b><u>Tony Mullane</u>,</b> <b>Fred Pfeffer,</b> <b>Hardy Richardson</b>, <b>Jimmy Ryan</b>, <b>Jack Stivetts</b>, <b>Harry Stovey</b>, <b>George Van Haltren</b>, <b>Gus Weyhing</b>, and <b><u>Deacon White</u></b>. The nine underlined names would be our choices for the nineteenth-century "Eternals" who would augment the current roster of inductees. </p></div></div>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-10649097924800132862024-03-03T14:46:00.000-08:002024-03-03T14:52:59.194-08:00HOME RUNS (WHAT ELSE?)/4: THE -29/30+ DIVIDE & THE 31 IN THE "DOUBLE 200 CLUB"...<p>WE operate under strange handicaps, with a computer that has ceased to permit certain characters to appear on the page as we t*pe (get the idea?). The problem will be rectified with a new machine later in 2024, but for now we just avoid using words with a certain letter that has been aggravatingl* disappeared from us (and *ou thought <i><u><b>*ou</b></u></i> had problems!)...</p><p>But it's clear that nothing, not even this, will stop us--we might even go back and fix the first graf after the fact (something we've done a number of times with previous posts, but it gets a bit tedious)...</p><p>ALL that said, we can't wait to drop this data and charts here, so bear with us--for what's coming down the pike in this edition is unusual even for BBB. What are we babbling about? It's more homer stuff, of course--we are working through our cognitive dissonance regarding them, though we will insist toujours that we need more triples and that the 190-foot rule is the best method for making that happen--but that's enough forepla*...</p><p>This edition of Home Runs (What Else?) features the age breakdown that never quite gets the full-on treatment it deserves. (We wanted to use "s*stematic, but, *ou know...) </p><p>We will divide home run production just as the Romans divided Gaul--into two parts: those taters struck when hitters are in their twenties, and those "big flies" (God, we love pluralism!) that arrive when the batter is in his thirties. For ease of use here, we're following the formulation in the title, which is -29/30+. </p><p>SO let's get the first big chart out here and get down to cases:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUdmDg5B7eQWvqOwI7ddERfmvUtoSjwuYQMWpqfpll5hKWi9kam6MQcQUqFOXn3AwV50KXUO796FuVwEnWRQUjncCpyKfjHaHxH_qLDh00acAlnl3nZGRmjfEWBN5YZXDP2zz-l84ul-O8-HKm9380o2L2O5f5MW45dKyRMlHBL5mcYR8G1JXZMqx4-7U/s2291/HR%20Leaders%20Age%20-29,%2030+%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1362" data-original-width="2291" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUdmDg5B7eQWvqOwI7ddERfmvUtoSjwuYQMWpqfpll5hKWi9kam6MQcQUqFOXn3AwV50KXUO796FuVwEnWRQUjncCpyKfjHaHxH_qLDh00acAlnl3nZGRmjfEWBN5YZXDP2zz-l84ul-O8-HKm9380o2L2O5f5MW45dKyRMlHBL5mcYR8G1JXZMqx4-7U/w640-h380/HR%20Leaders%20Age%20-29,%2030+%20png.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>That's right, we've created two lists of age-oriented "200+ HR" hitters. These should look similar to the ones created for the 300+ lifetime HR lists seen in our recent series--except, of course, we've divided them into our "-29/30+" formulation.</p><p>IT's instructive to put these up in tandem, so that we can see how each segment differs. Despite the fact that hitters often have fewer seasons to work with during their twenties, there are more members of the "200+ HR club" in the -29 group (98) than in the 30+ group (82). </p><p>But before we get deep into the nuances of these large-membered clubs, let's take a quick look at the upper echelons that we find here--what's the breakdown of 300+ HRs via these age groups? There are 15 hitters who've hit 300+ HRs in their twenties, and there are 17 hitters who've hit 300+ HRs in their thirties. And <u>there are just two hitters who managed to hit 300+ HRs in each age range:</u> <b>Hank Aaron</b> (age -29, 342; age 30+, 413) and <b>Albert Pujols</b> (age -29, 366; age 30+, 337).</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwimiN1QfFTF_JvX5PP2Qz5nWVlPhchEv8yjPkOnIrRMaW3F4jg_-saK4Eo4ugsJmocKoBAhU67mvpXHNMbsNOnCOqk68_g6DSsa_KBZWnC0n9D9Aa4R-efFwQLUUsw3JxJPtue-nt1Cc1DJOnJiWtK7zOwzOLafLBQEp-9JiPV6I76jf-7C1Odxm-R0E/s1200/in-memorium-the-entertainers-inspirations-we-lost-in-march.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwimiN1QfFTF_JvX5PP2Qz5nWVlPhchEv8yjPkOnIrRMaW3F4jg_-saK4Eo4ugsJmocKoBAhU67mvpXHNMbsNOnCOqk68_g6DSsa_KBZWnC0n9D9Aa4R-efFwQLUUsw3JxJPtue-nt1Cc1DJOnJiWtK7zOwzOLafLBQEp-9JiPV6I76jf-7C1Odxm-R0E/s320/in-memorium-the-entertainers-inspirations-we-lost-in-march.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>--aka "Jackie Coogan's bluff"...</i></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Jimmie Foxx </b>was the age -29 leader for quite a long time, but <b>A-Rod</b> and <b>Junior</b> surpassed him. Likewise, <b>Babe Ruth</b> was the age 30+ leader for a similar stretch, until a fellow named Bonds went into orbit once the new millennium arrived and blew him out of the water. Baseball's favorite pariah <u>hit 503 HRs during the age 30+ phase of his career</u>--a fact that should inspire infinite awe, but will all too often be cited as <i>prime facie</i> evidence of "cheating." (Who knew that of all the centuries in all the gin joints in all the freakin' world, the 21st would take all of the meanness in the previous several and double down on it in a manner that would make <b>Uncle Fester</b> proud?) <br /><p></p><p>Soon we'll take a focused look at the 31 hitters who hit 200+ HRs in each age range, but next we will look at some distribution charts that can provide some additional context for the 180 members of the "200+ HR in an age range" club.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_yC42vs_GMbuZ7MhAAEn7v3mJBxGqmnKqBk_35_FLXTuo6vKhgFx5XuL59v6-kvrzxVevxOFrIOCoA6QLTN2qLXPQEedkcApBTHdrhkQb_InTa6dBAZDs8DVNhzO2FXBi6Eg15fKw-lyX5ASHijxsEQTboLtTVpsWBE90dStNBa0Bb-tpcFxW0qO23B0/s2133/HR-OPS+%20Age%20-29%20scatter%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1650" data-original-width="2133" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_yC42vs_GMbuZ7MhAAEn7v3mJBxGqmnKqBk_35_FLXTuo6vKhgFx5XuL59v6-kvrzxVevxOFrIOCoA6QLTN2qLXPQEedkcApBTHdrhkQb_InTa6dBAZDs8DVNhzO2FXBi6Eg15fKw-lyX5ASHijxsEQTboLtTVpsWBE90dStNBa0Bb-tpcFxW0qO23B0/w400-h309/HR-OPS+%20Age%20-29%20scatter%20png.png" width="400" /></a></div>Let's start with a scatter chart that shows us the 98 hitters in the -29 range, plotted via the intersection of their HR totals in the age range and their overall performance during same (which we measure with OPS+). Remember when looking at this chart that there is more variation in the career lengths of the hitters in the -29 range: some folks start at age 19, others at age 24 (and then there's <b>Babe Ruth</b>, starting as a pitcher in Deadball Era, with four seasons where his HR totals are suppressed due to limited plate appearances)--that explains how the data here is not quite so linear.<p></p><p>And Ruth is one of the three data points on the scatter chart that we've singled out with different coloration from the rest--which one is he? That's right, the one in red at the far right. His HR total in the -29 range was kept under 300 due to the reasons noted above, but his OPS+ (218) was off the charts during this time frame (1914-24). The other data point in red belongs to A-Rod, the all-time leader in -29 range HRs (426).</p><p>So who's the fellow over toward the left middle shown in pale green? That's our old pal <b>Andruw Jones</b>, the man that the post-neo-sabes are bound & determined to push into the Hall of Fame. Jones started at age 19, so he got what is close to the maximum possible number of PAs in the -29 age range (he ranks sixth behind <b>Mel Ott</b>, A-Rod, Junior, <b>Al Kaline</b>, and Mantle). He did hit a nice number of HRs in the time frame (his 342 is tied for seventh with Ott and Hank Aaron), <u>but</u> look at his OPS+: it's just 115, a performance level several galaxies apart from the other two hitters with the same -29 HR totals (Ott's OPS+ through age 29 was 157, Aaron's was 158). Jones hit 92 HRs after the age of 30--the lowest total for a member of the -29 age range with 300+ HRs--and hit just .214 during that time...a Hall of Fame impostor if there ever was one (but remember that we live in an age of cults).</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC6LRCs8NLbYG7vENAyJq6-zRMdP8XgUXAePIrzJjhxbpKlQiS7xHZDR-76REo4CFVq3q0X0LN6d65k-rhgpU1Ery3uMZvEYAWLCBv4q6-KIc5Fr-taNIGdXyhyphenhyphenwEwT9bEbDiZKeAn4Fg6jhL4MFIL0OqB-n6CNxeMCtGkGmSLMhIiMTzUU0Eox049LDo/s1979/HR162OPS+%20Age%20-29%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1570" data-original-width="1979" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC6LRCs8NLbYG7vENAyJq6-zRMdP8XgUXAePIrzJjhxbpKlQiS7xHZDR-76REo4CFVq3q0X0LN6d65k-rhgpU1Ery3uMZvEYAWLCBv4q6-KIc5Fr-taNIGdXyhyphenhyphenwEwT9bEbDiZKeAn4Fg6jhL4MFIL0OqB-n6CNxeMCtGkGmSLMhIiMTzUU0Eox049LDo/w400-h318/HR162OPS+%20Age%20-29%20png.png" width="400" /></a></div>NOW let's look at related measure--HR per 162 games--and scatter that against OPS+. What kind of results will that give us (as compared to the raw HR totals)? The results are shown in the chart at right, which looks a good bit more linear than the first one. Note that this one provides population averages for the measures here: HR/162 rates for the 98 -29 age range is just over 34 (as shown in the green horizontal line...), and the aggregate OPS+ for these hitters is 145 (as shown in the green vertical line). <p></p><p>But we can see that Babe Ruth is still an outlier thanks to that insane OPS+ (218, to be exact) with a much better HR/162 rate once we've adjusted for his total PA over the 1914-24 time frame. And we can see A-Rod in the upper center of the chart, with a homer rate a little better than Ruth's, but with an OPS+ that's just about identical with the average for the hitter population captured here. And move back down and further to the left to find Andruw Jones again: he's far off the average OPS+, in a cluster of hitters whose main offensive skill was hitting homers. Even at that, his homer rate is just about average amongst the hitters here. Just to be tiresome, we'll repeat what we said above: Hall of Fame impostor (don't care how good his glove was--and his glove has been overrated).</p><p>OK, we are all glad that we got <i>that</i> out of our s*stem (oops, there's that glitch again... that missing "real question" that <b>Brock Hanke</b> used to tweak me about!). But there's one last special data point highlighted on this chart--it can be seen at the top of the chart near the vertical green line. That's the hitter with the highest HR/162 rate of all the folk in the -29 age range. Who is that? Is it going to be a surprise to discover that this hitters's name is going to subject to the same computer glitch we've been working so hard to avoid as we tap out this text? Of course not! But see what we mean when we list the name: it's <b>R*an Howard</b>. That's right: R*an Howard, who came up at age 24 and had a monster five seasons of taterdom, averaging just under 49 HRs per 162 games. (That homer rate took a significant nosedive once Howard reached 30, however: from that point on it was just 31 per 162 games--and his OPS+ plummeted as well: down to just 107.)</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnxJ9PfEIKrcHI4Lb7GFlpezpsIf4VidoAr5F7z-CwYWM7FzhHsEXDa8zwYPMgy6GxbXHNFiUs6Hk_vYCCJwInuMKtagitYDtjsE05BFuJYs0V_FgldHU7UvjREmlB8af4hvso4o1PYpzM6QiVCNmKc6FDnv2L8AbNqOKMsJYMR8Rmis9_VGnXVijvkMM/s2083/HR-OPS+%20Age%2030+%20scatter%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1441" data-original-width="2083" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnxJ9PfEIKrcHI4Lb7GFlpezpsIf4VidoAr5F7z-CwYWM7FzhHsEXDa8zwYPMgy6GxbXHNFiUs6Hk_vYCCJwInuMKtagitYDtjsE05BFuJYs0V_FgldHU7UvjREmlB8af4hvso4o1PYpzM6QiVCNmKc6FDnv2L8AbNqOKMsJYMR8Rmis9_VGnXVijvkMM/w400-h276/HR-OPS+%20Age%2030+%20scatter%20png.png" width="400" /></a></div>So let's move on to the 30+ range and some of the controversial people who populate it--Bonds, <b>Mark McGwire</b>, <b>Samm* Sosa</b>, <b>Rafael Palmeiro</b>...the folks who've had the doors to Cooperstown slammed in their faces.<p></p><p>As should be clear, this chart does have more of a linear flow going for it, as the upward drift to the right kinda sorta takes those anomalies named Bonds (topmost data point in red) and Ruth (next topmost data point in red) and McGwire (the third data point in red, with his somewhat truncated HR total due to injuries: if we could plop into the "375 HR, 175 OPS+" intersection point on the chart, he would be just about dead linear with the overall spread trend in the chart). Even with the linear feel in the chart, it's still mind-blowing to see where Bonds and Ruth reside on this chart--if we'd been told in 1999 that someone would break Ruth's 30+ age range home run record (430), we'd have recommended that the person doing so get a visit from the men in white coats...and for Bonds to have done so without so much as breaking a sweat--our minds should still be reeling.</p><p>But we have some other colored markers to explain. The gold marker belongs to Aaron (413 HRs in the 30+ age range, and a 153 OPS+). The light green marker belongs to Palmeiro, who sits in third place for age 30+ HRs (414, one more than Aaron), but with a lesser OPS (133). Of course, his Cooperstown snub is also absurd, but consider the times we live in. The marker in "amarillo" (we'll do whatever we can to avoid the asterisk!) captures two hitters whose 30+ careers have never been compared as far as we can tell, but whose numbers here indicate just how tremendous their achievements were in adjacent decades. These two are Willie Stargell and Mike Schmidt, who in the 1970s and 1980s respectivel* (oh, sh*t!) compiled identical 153 OPS+. Stargell hit 310 homers in the 30+ range; Schmidt hit 313. Both of them, of course, are enshrined in Cooperstown. (Palmeiro, with 100 more HRs during his thirties than either of them <i><u>and</u></i> a higher HR/162 rate, is somehow little better than dog meat: go figure.)</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF5x2rbo33GPJyIIKDItA15Hfkhdeg_xeIlf9b9zkOSjlYHu37keE-mzAzATmlUe7QrLWCJXy3LV42nUFyYJ6PCiFmRU4fsvlDaU-vJD825BV_0RC-JFsnSYHaTMfYJlOaOYQCeHMz9UfHqo6KdNrbzrXJzxP4oVgr6SotUGq3Xceu8mzPkIEQkvgnTJQ/s2070/HR122OPS+%20Age%2030+%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1412" data-original-width="2070" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF5x2rbo33GPJyIIKDItA15Hfkhdeg_xeIlf9b9zkOSjlYHu37keE-mzAzATmlUe7QrLWCJXy3LV42nUFyYJ6PCiFmRU4fsvlDaU-vJD825BV_0RC-JFsnSYHaTMfYJlOaOYQCeHMz9UfHqo6KdNrbzrXJzxP4oVgr6SotUGq3Xceu8mzPkIEQkvgnTJQ/w408-h277/HR122OPS+%20Age%2030+%20png.png" width="408" /></a></div>AND now for the HR/162--OPS+ scatter chart for the "oldsters" (we should all be so old, eh?). As might be expected, this chart is the most linear of them all (and thanks to the mirror, mirror on the wall). It just reminds us that rate stats are much more useful that counting stats--but who's counting, and whose opinion counts? <p></p><p>What will blow minds (and perhaps even some of the lower <i>chakras</i>...) is the rate stat residing at the top of this chart. It belongs to <u>the greatest home run hitter in baseball histor*</u>. (It figures that we'd get an asterisk right here, doesn't it?) That man is...<b>Mark McGwire</b>. In his 30+ age period, <u>Big Mac averaged 61 homers per 162 games</u>, which blows all of the other sluggers clear out of the water and deposits them into a ring of adjoining palm trees, where even these men of might can be heard whimpering like puppies. In case folks are wondering, that's Ruth ahead of Bonds in the rate stats over near the 200 OPS+ line. Right there with 'em, however, is Samm* Sosa (damned if it isn't <i>still</i> the real question, Hanke!), not close to those two as an overall offensive force but just as potent at hitting the long ball. </p><p>The other two fellas who are somewhat separated from the oldster slugger "school of fish" that we see on the chart are: <b>Lou Gehrig</b> (at the intersection of 40 and 175) and <b>Ted Williams</b> (higher OPS+, lower HR rate). That might not be all that surprising, <i>n'est-ce pas</i>?</p><p>SO let's wrap things up with the 31 members of the "Double 200 Club"--the hitters who hit 200+ HRs in each age range (-29, 30+). Note that since we are friendlier than most folks think we are (statistical studies corroborating this fact are available for a not-so-small fee...), we are listing these folk in alphabetical order--but using their first names. That's friendlier than would have been expected, right?</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGOoznP6cG9OgZUwDsxk0dyIPmEE8BMAU3tt57U_M4jSw2OVM53BfuKsRP75Xt3wkmFIUg_osincJr5FAbR65n7O4GMCNok39rHu5Nt9NrIzsxjycipsUUreMEs8y8eG9z3V6SlxPcFLmNnBnkFBmXKdCU9akr3wxReRoQWKenA9mgrMBkUQUnUs0EwYE/s1737/200%20Club%20Age%20-29,30+%20200+%20HRs%20in%20each%20png.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1737" data-original-width="1720" height="614" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGOoznP6cG9OgZUwDsxk0dyIPmEE8BMAU3tt57U_M4jSw2OVM53BfuKsRP75Xt3wkmFIUg_osincJr5FAbR65n7O4GMCNok39rHu5Nt9NrIzsxjycipsUUreMEs8y8eG9z3V6SlxPcFLmNnBnkFBmXKdCU9akr3wxReRoQWKenA9mgrMBkUQUnUs0EwYE/w606-h614/200%20Club%20Age%20-29,30+%20200+%20HRs%20in%20each%20png.png" width="606" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Hitters with their names in black are in the Hall of Fame; hitters with their names in red are not, and aren't going to be for some time to come; hitters with their names in green aren't in so far, but will be soon.<div><br /></div><div>We highlighted some numbers here--OPS+ and homers--but we will leave to the reader to discern whatever patterns might emerge from that. We will note that, in terms of OPS+, these sluggers are almost 50-50 in terms of having a better one earlier (-29 seasons) than later (30+ seasons). </div><div><br /></div><div>And we will note that of all the lists we've compiled in all the gin joints in all the "mobius strip" narratives we've concocted over the decades, this one is just about as close to a slam-dunk, unanimous recommendation for the Hall of Fame we've seen thus far (aside from the actual Hall of Fame list, of course: just wanted to clear that up!). But for the appearances of Dave Kingman and Paul Konerko on this list, however, all of the other names are folk deserving of enshrinement. (Some might quibble about <b>Adrian Beltré</b>, but we wouldn't: a solid long career--and a bump-up in the 30+ range--at a position where HOFers remain scarce: he's a keeper in our book. We're less convinced about <b>Carlos Beltran</b>, but the cult will bring him in over the line...)</div><div><br /></div><div>So fhat's 29 of 31--not too shabb* (but not as shabb* as our freaking ke*board!!!). So far 21 of the 29 are in--two more will make it, which leaves six "qualified pariahs" barred at the door. For f*ck's sake, let's figure out how to fix that, OK?</div>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-4100462550363178572024-03-02T14:44:00.000-08:002024-03-02T14:44:10.982-08:00HOME RUNS (WHAT ELSE?)/3: 300+ LIFETIME HRs & THE GAME'S MENTAL PHASE SHIFT...<p>SWAMPED with non-baseball matters of late, but here's a quick look at another HR-related issue ahead of a much more elaborate post coming tomorrow...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjzTdoRLm88Ki16Bnb3ejM572IjRLV42tGAWlJ1OBzRM1JsQwoxIUMD_uoe3nijTGtoFZjJheknfYuEOPzhLaHvc964DH0Fee4tkvK6XGcBwqHWSvhwbRLQ302akULsJ26692QPiM1fnlrwgicbE_BXPZoIs1qv5wHZqCPBjoa7awtFiQleRgknXnLaVo/s2366/Progression%20of%20300+%20Lifetime%20HRs%20png.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2366" data-original-width="1875" height="499" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjzTdoRLm88Ki16Bnb3ejM572IjRLV42tGAWlJ1OBzRM1JsQwoxIUMD_uoe3nijTGtoFZjJheknfYuEOPzhLaHvc964DH0Fee4tkvK6XGcBwqHWSvhwbRLQ302akULsJ26692QPiM1fnlrwgicbE_BXPZoIs1qv5wHZqCPBjoa7awtFiQleRgknXnLaVo/w395-h499/Progression%20of%20300+%20Lifetime%20HRs%20png.png" width="395" /></a></div>--Just a single chart (at right) showing the accumulation of careers with 300+ HRs over time. <p></p><p>This might be the best explanation for how viewpoints about homers have changed in the past six decades. Baseball fans who were born after 1970 might not understand how rare 300+ HR careers were prior to that time--but recall that it took half a century from the origins of professional baseball for a player to hit 30 HRs in a season!</p><p>The chart begins in 1935 with the retirement of the first hitter with 300+ lifetime homers (you might have head of him...) and moves upward and rightward until we reach 2020. </p><p>In 1935, there were three hitters with 300+ homers in their career (<b>Babe Ruth</b>, <b>Lou Gehrig</b> and <b>Jimmie Foxx</b>). By 1970, there were 27 hitters who'd made the "300 club." Fifteen years later, that total had nearly doubled to exactly 50. </p><p>But, as the shaded area displays, that was just the tip of the iceberg with respect to the profusion of 300+ lifetime homer careers. In the twenty-five year that followed (1985 to 2010) a total of 79 more hitters were added to the 300+ HR list. The offensive explosion that began in 1993 and continued relatively unabated until 2009 jump-started this process. </p><p>AND it became second nature to most baseball fans for this to happen. Over this time, the sense of rarity that originally was part of the fans' mental baseline with respect to 300+ HR careers was slowly but decisively obliterated. By the late 1990s, when analysts jousted over the qualifications of <b>Dick Allen</b> for admission to the Hall of Fame, some folks were already downplaying his home run total (351). No one at the time bothered to go back in time to explain that when Allen retired in 1977, he was only the 38th hitter to reach 300+ lifetime HRs. Fifty hitters had joined the 300+ lifetime honor list in the twenty years since... </p><p>...and twenty-five years later (in the present day) that total is now 159 (as noted in a prior post). That's nearly double what the number was after the 2000 season. </p><p>There is just no way that anyone with even the slightest involvement or interest in baseball is going to be able to understand how rare the occurrence was for so long. The mental phase shift is vast, it is complete, and it has changed the game in ways that cannot be overturned. We have to look elsewhere to discover things about home runs that are not compromised by the change in the game that has perturbed the way we look at things now. Stay tuned...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-4941482060348764812024-02-18T15:34:00.000-08:002024-02-18T18:57:17.059-08:00HOME RUNS (WHAT ELSE?)/2: SOME ADDITIONAL RECONDITE DISTRIBUTIONS...<p>SO let's start with the teaser left dangling at the end of Part One of this series (yes, now officially a series--check your local listings...) and note <u><b>the active player leader list for home runs going into the 2024 season</b></u>. Note also that, as is so often the case, our presentation is somewhat different than the usual one:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_m6qdICbUJ-ilutlZXrRq27X17x-iW-dVcYDcqYUCYtPTj9Oozf6DGymOXOfR_lEnp-XxPIhGSKw_ta7YjlaNHTXJ_Gfv_vMPiLLPwDEzFFadnmoqIB3cLLl7VpecqbIBCJawhDz_sdb9cyvJvZsH6ZX7dqgImQQ41mhxSM1ckRO7dVPjNngkOJUHuu8/s1283/HR%20Leaders%20Active%20Players%20after%202023%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1154" data-original-width="1283" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_m6qdICbUJ-ilutlZXrRq27X17x-iW-dVcYDcqYUCYtPTj9Oozf6DGymOXOfR_lEnp-XxPIhGSKw_ta7YjlaNHTXJ_Gfv_vMPiLLPwDEzFFadnmoqIB3cLLl7VpecqbIBCJawhDz_sdb9cyvJvZsH6ZX7dqgImQQ41mhxSM1ckRO7dVPjNngkOJUHuu8/w400-h359/HR%20Leaders%20Active%20Players%20after%202023%20png.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>Our list takes you down into the depths of homer totals, if only to point out how certain young players (the two not-so-new "Juniors"--Guerrero and Tatis) have been hyped as superstars but are still a long, long way down this leader list.</p>But you get the idea. <b>Giancarlo Stanton</b> turns out to be the new leader, now that <b>Miguel Cabrera</b> has finally retired. (Given that Stanton has missed ~450 games over the course of his career due to injuries, one surmises that he'd be a lot closer to 500 than 400 at this point.)<p></p><p>And the two players who are likely to join the eleven active players with 300+ HRs alluded to earlier are: <b>Andrew McCutchen (</b>299) and <b>Anthony Rizzo</b> (295). </p><p>Note also that the media has decided <b>Shohei Ohtani</b> is already a Hall of Famer, even before his current total of MLB homers climbed to 171 after his second MVP "double-duty" season. It is going to be very interesting to see what Showtime's final career numbers look like when the time comes: if he averages 35 HRs over the next seven seasons, he'll crack 400 HRs; will 3+ plus seasons of excellent pitching be his ticket to a first-round induction? </p><p>The player most lost in the wilderness on this list is probably <b>Kris Bryan</b>t, who had 94 HRs in his first three seasons (including 39 in his MVP year), but has hit only 88 in the next six years.</p><p>Here's <u>the distribution of active players' HRs</u> at the highest level of granularity:</p><p>400+: 1; 300-399: 10; 200-299: 19; 100-199: 92</p><p>That's a pretty steep distribution, actually. Check out the percentages in each of the four high-level categories:</p><p>400+: 0.8%; 300-399: 8.2% 200-299: 15.7%; 100-199: 75.3%</p><p>It's a bit tricky to get these for "active players" in past years from the query setup at <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com">Forman et soeur</a></b>, but we'll try to look into this and see just how steep this is in comparison to past snapshots in time.</p><p>BUT let's return to the young sluggers of the present day and try to put that historical phenomenon into perspective. Since the "New Juniors" (<b>Fernando Tatis</b> and <b>Vladimir Guerrero</b>) have both just completed their age-24 seasons, let's use that "career moment" to look at how "young slugging" has become an integral part of the game.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy9DywbaFzFSB12GCPmmxY1dSFeuB6JUNgPNEbv-REhrRVgksUKIaoG6_1a-o6CqlK-v7T3XDsIzGwjjdMwRqONU9QpRPuuFyvBHjc_bOaU_1t2R8pvVBXNt35MoZN_DTnZVZgWAxYuA7P7J4Pcx-wF57b71nE8Yf-rKikz3uZDpLudz7bLLGHt4KHVv0/s1137/Top%20HR%20Hitters%20Thru%20Age%2024%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1137" data-original-width="1004" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy9DywbaFzFSB12GCPmmxY1dSFeuB6JUNgPNEbv-REhrRVgksUKIaoG6_1a-o6CqlK-v7T3XDsIzGwjjdMwRqONU9QpRPuuFyvBHjc_bOaU_1t2R8pvVBXNt35MoZN_DTnZVZgWAxYuA7P7J4Pcx-wF57b71nE8Yf-rKikz3uZDpLudz7bLLGHt4KHVv0/w354-h400/Top%20HR%20Hitters%20Thru%20Age%2024%20png.png" width="354" /></a></div>We do it with a master list of the top 200 "young sluggers" which gives us a range from 190 (Eddie Mathews, the top "young slugger" if we measure by HRs) down to 53 (five guys, ranging from the non-slugger <b>Buddy Lewis</b> to <b>Pete Alonso</b>, who hit 53 HRs in his first season at age 24). The bottom end of the range has a few issues, but it allows us to look at an interesting historical distribution, which we'll get to shortly. First, however, we have a similar table of "young sluggers" in categories, taken down to those who hit 75 HRs by the end of their age-24 season.<br /><br />It's pretty clear that "young slugging" highly correlates with overall slugging, when you look at the top ten guys--eight of the top ten HR hitters all hit 500+ HRs in their career (and #7 <b>Mike Trout</b>, despite his relentless injury siege in recent years, should still get there as well).<b> Orlando Cepeda</b> (#11) and <b>Johnny Bench</b> (#12) slowed down considerably after age 30 and are the guys who couldn't crack 400; we figure that <b>Bryce Harper</b>, #15 on the list and one of five active players in the top twenty, will easily get past that and has a solid shot at 500 as well.<div><br /></div><div>BUT we were alluding to how "young slugging" has become the hallmark of baseball; the fact that it has done so is not really a recent phenomenon. As the next chart indicates, it got started in the 1950s and took the game by the throat in the next decade, setting a template that has pretty much held firm ever since. (Surprisingly, the only decade where young sluggers were less consistently present was the 1990s, when offense headed toward its peak: veteran sluggers were able to extend their efficiency in that time frame, which will bring the "rage against 'roids" folk out of the woodwork if we're not careful--or even if we are...)</div><div><br /></div><div>Let's look at the charts and we'll try to explain the truly baroque color-coding on display here:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic0LK2cxpx491Rbj0HX-weMSi-pDKiIPxLymf6UP8jeishiJK7B_arb2gQyd9PRsDgL83lAqB56YG6fQUT6AtpdtUaBf-5AkhKBizzs7vAIISk-y2yfXQZy50KAiUfyZm1TlDOzLiiRG_khmZq-kvC36bb5NYzopNqVeFqZpNT1yxUjmvKwmVwtjwUQzo/s2358/%20Young%20Sluggers%20Age%2024%20Clustering%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="925" data-original-width="2358" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic0LK2cxpx491Rbj0HX-weMSi-pDKiIPxLymf6UP8jeishiJK7B_arb2gQyd9PRsDgL83lAqB56YG6fQUT6AtpdtUaBf-5AkhKBizzs7vAIISk-y2yfXQZy50KAiUfyZm1TlDOzLiiRG_khmZq-kvC36bb5NYzopNqVeFqZpNT1yxUjmvKwmVwtjwUQzo/w640-h250/%20Young%20Sluggers%20Age%2024%20Clustering%20png.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The chart on the left sums up the homers hit up through age-24 seasons for the hitters in that top 200 we mentioned earlier. The color coding is initially straightforward--nothing for a yearly total under 100, cool colors for totals in the 100s and 200s, then warmer in 300 on up. The warmer colors also capture the years in which the Top 20 "young sluggers" reach their totals, often accompanied by other, lesser young sluggers. The reason why 1956 is colored most darkly of all is because it's the year where <b>Eddie Mathews</b> (#1) and <b>Mickey Mantle</b> (#5) tag-team the game and create the unshakable aura of the "young slugger" that will be burned into the collective consciousness of the media, the fans, and the insiders in a way that is irrevocable. (Note that the total of HRs hit these two by age 24, if tallied together at that moment in time, would have been the seventh highest total hit by anyone in the history of baseball. It remains the top 1-2 punch of any exactly contemporaneous pair of "young sluggers")</div><div><br /></div><div>The half-decade totals tell the tale: 1955-59 had eight "young sluggers," tied with 1935-39, but things would rev up from then on: the 60s half-decades had 13 each. 1970-74 pushed past that to 14 "young sluggers." The early 80s had a bit of a lull, but 1985-89 is back to 13. It's only in the throes of the offensive explosion where we see a significant slowdown (just seven in 1995-99).</div><div><br /></div><div>Slugging replaced hitting in the 2000s, which eventually slowed down offense, but not "young slugging," which was in place to stay. Even with a downturn in offense in the first part of the 2010s, the launching pad for "launch angle" pyrotechnics was jumpstarted in 2014, leading to the six most plentiful consecutive years of young sluggers (a total of 22, the most ever--a total that was matched by 2018-23).</div><div><br /></div><div>The last ten years have seen 36 "young sluggers" make their mark in the game, easily the highest ten-year total ever. That group has hit over 3000 HRs in that time frame, reinforcing the notion that the premium requirement for the game is to seek and develop long-ball prodigies.</div><div><br /></div><div>AND yes, there's more to come in terms of the great flood of homers--we'll present more of it soon enough--even though doing so makes us long for the plan we outlined awhile ago for four leagues, in which one of them was carefully engineered to look more like the game prior to the 1950s--before the aura of the "young slugger" became baseball's siren call. The chances of baseball's Ivy League "brain trust" of actually doing that, however, is minuscule, given that they are the type of "wise folk" who treat the symptoms and not the disease. But fear not: we'll keep plugging away, hoping against hope for some kind of inexplicable, miraculous intervention...meanwhile, naturally, we'll still feed your habit and provide you with even more recondite distributions about "the big fly", "the bomb", "the tater"--the <i>bete noire</i> of these increasingly w(h)acky times in which we find ourselves coerced to live...</div>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-44201335058853213942024-02-15T22:36:00.000-08:002024-02-15T22:36:02.414-08:00HOME RUNS (WHAT ELSE?)/1: SOME BASIC BUT OBSCURE FACTS FOR THOSE WHO'VE LEARNED TO LOVE "THE BOMB"...<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlU1vPDoaXUS-c9NoR9g5m-7J6tk9VW0d4G6FXcUB1TNurHqyIUmF0aCQrpT1U5HrX08_uBqK5dtmnCEl5Djho1CrFrSzFrVwPCRgIaqZ3HB_f26pAZ6aDY-8D1p7y6Flc8TjdfwMpKxR1RexMdbs_L9zcPnoGKQs30h6EOSRTVDMJjVl3XNr5iHsARbs/s1200/slimpickens%20drstrangelove.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlU1vPDoaXUS-c9NoR9g5m-7J6tk9VW0d4G6FXcUB1TNurHqyIUmF0aCQrpT1U5HrX08_uBqK5dtmnCEl5Djho1CrFrSzFrVwPCRgIaqZ3HB_f26pAZ6aDY-8D1p7y6Flc8TjdfwMpKxR1RexMdbs_L9zcPnoGKQs30h6EOSRTVDMJjVl3XNr5iHsARbs/w446-h251/slimpickens%20drstrangelove.jpg" width="446" /></a></div>Spring training is almost upon us...the start of the baseball season is just about six weeks away. (Actually, sooner than that, given that there will be a gimmicky two-game series in Korea about ten days before the official start of the 2024 season...but, as the folks who donate to the Republican National Committee have taken to saying: "Who's counting?"<br /><p></p><p>OF COURSE, we are--but we're counting something different. It may seem to you this triples-loving establishment is selling out to those who've crammed "the big fly" down our throats since 2017, but bear with us--we're going to take a different tack with looking at home runs. </p><p>(After all, doing something different is what this place is all about...but we'll try not be as dementedly "different" as <b>Slim Pickens</b>, who was fifty years ahead of the "launch angle lotharios" in loving "the bomb" a bit <i>too</i> enthusiastically..,</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbQL8FTGbTfIwi5PLm2hb7QxW11Uddko_aVc9fLQYB35rf29O_CsmPFoUueTD0faeaE1TizEYxjZebKTLnfUp-fl5D5ojcZxch9n4arVvp4kYjp-K3hGZhxbkGw-GekmOVG_tmae0PnjttzhBjdw95UZdpQvQuWORgOgMZrE0OyCKUHRu7TwlEIMUoLt0/s612/HR%20Freq%20per%20Cat%20&%20HOFers%20png.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="383" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbQL8FTGbTfIwi5PLm2hb7QxW11Uddko_aVc9fLQYB35rf29O_CsmPFoUueTD0faeaE1TizEYxjZebKTLnfUp-fl5D5ojcZxch9n4arVvp4kYjp-K3hGZhxbkGw-GekmOVG_tmae0PnjttzhBjdw95UZdpQvQuWORgOgMZrE0OyCKUHRu7TwlEIMUoLt0/w189-h302/HR%20Freq%20per%20Cat%20&%20HOFers%20png.png" width="189" /></a></div>SO what are we going to show you about home runs that you've not seen before? We're going to mosey (hmm, looks as though ol' Slim has rubbed off on us...) into a patch of data that we hope won't take you for the wrong kind of ride. Let's begin by asking a series of questions related to the home run...<p></p><p>First, how many hitters have hit 700 or more homers in their career? <br /></p><p>Then...how many have hit six hundred but less than 700? And 500-to-599? 400 to 499? 300 to 399? 200 to 299? And finally, how many have hit 100 or more homers but less than 200?</p><p>All of that summary data is available for view in the table at right, along with the number of hitters in each category who've been elected to the Hall of Fame. The frequency of occurrence multiplies dramatically when we get past the 400-HR threshold: there are 58 hitters who've now hit 400+ HRs in their careers, and 940 who've hit at least 100 HRs but no more than 399.</p><p>As for election to the HOF, we have the steroid boys to contend with at the top of the list: there are 28 hitters who've hit 500+ HRs, but at this moment only 19 of them have been inducted at Cooperstown. That's just a little bit over two-thirds: we have folks like Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro here, looking at doors with "Keep Out!" signs (and they'll likely be joined by Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez on the outside looking in). </p><p>Still the percentages for induction at 400-499 HRs (50%) is not too bad, given how common HRs have gotten to be in the last seven seasons. For players who hit fewer than 300 HRs in a career, their current chance of being inducted in the HOF is in single digits (it rounds up to just eight percent. With 300 or more HRs in a career, the induction more than quadruple, to 35%.</p><p>But those numbers are a bit too abstract to stand alone (and by now all of you should know that <b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrRdeh2mVL8">you need a mess of help to stand alone</a></b>...) so what we'll do to close out this first toe-dip into the world of "the living, loving bomb" is to show you all of the hitters both in and out of the HOF who've hit at least 300 HRs in their major league career. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkimStkBjtNsekEiE7M69J8WqhpOh8dvsTZ0quSQ6Uz6MXt5cNAl5_3kMb2nm3IE78VGihe4svhjresa54dY64JEHD2Go54v3X-UzOz4MYumzpZ-GFYBWvvwONsjrQ9xMkxjFVxn_TfZycljlBZKFC2Y9hRpZZwk2BNAGamkSycb9uv73VFdl4LOVeKBc/s2258/300+%20HR%20in-out%20of%20HOF%20png%20copy.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1158" data-original-width="2258" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkimStkBjtNsekEiE7M69J8WqhpOh8dvsTZ0quSQ6Uz6MXt5cNAl5_3kMb2nm3IE78VGihe4svhjresa54dY64JEHD2Go54v3X-UzOz4MYumzpZ-GFYBWvvwONsjrQ9xMkxjFVxn_TfZycljlBZKFC2Y9hRpZZwk2BNAGamkSycb9uv73VFdl4LOVeKBc/w640-h328/300+%20HR%20in-out%20of%20HOF%20png%20copy.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>The folks in red are the active playera on the list; the folks in green are players who didn't play firsr base or the outfield. That last subtype is carried over to this list by underlining the active players who aren't outfielders or first sackers.</p><p>With the retirement of <b>Miguel Cabrera</b>, the active HR leader going into the 2024 season is Giancarlo Stanton (402). He is joined by nine others who have 300-399 HRs and who are expected to play in 2024. (Note: the "Carter" on the "not in HOF" list is <b>Joe Carter</b>, and is wrongly identified as being a catcher; HOFer <b>Gary Carter</b> is wrongly shown as an outfielder/first baseman, when of course he was primarily a catcher...we always have at least one goof-up like this.)</p><p>THAT will get you started on our "big fly road to ruin." There is much more in this vein, and we'll be strip-mining it in subsequent installments. Let's conclude by noting that the next hitters to crack 100 HRs in their career will bring the grand total of such players to an even one thousand--an occurrence that is certain to take place within a few days of the start of the 2024 season. </p><p>We'll leave you with a question to ponder: who are the next hitters to follow in the footsteps of <b>Carlos Santana</b>, who just slipped into the 300+ HR club last season (now with 301 lifetime)? See if you can figure it out without cheating the way we did (by looking it up). Stay tuned...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-34239299885827910052024-02-09T09:45:00.000-08:002024-02-15T19:46:11.645-08:00OAKLAND META-FARCE CONTINUES UNABATED...<p>What does <b>John Fisher </b>have on MLB? It must be something gigantic, because the pathetic and reprehensible events that continue to occur regarding the embattled Oakland A's franchise have devolved past mere painfulness though "cruel & unusual" and are now approaching "genocidal" in nature. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyicMcxS4yYBTJkkaSTp2TIoZPlHWTThzMd-SlJrb0ovPZz2M9WTBYQiVBNHWSc4okq-d8BMMIHaifwYlg6knlHJBHMYU1ld0Ip57taH5eDKLUGbA-3xm-V2biPIW4a38Oq5jsF7NAv5F0-6Z5GOzbppa0kz5bBi88B5HgsEQ-wVzFGdoMymYpXpvQDY4/s4032/IMG_9702.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4032" data-original-width="3024" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyicMcxS4yYBTJkkaSTp2TIoZPlHWTThzMd-SlJrb0ovPZz2M9WTBYQiVBNHWSc4okq-d8BMMIHaifwYlg6knlHJBHMYU1ld0Ip57taH5eDKLUGbA-3xm-V2biPIW4a38Oq5jsF7NAv5F0-6Z5GOzbppa0kz5bBi88B5HgsEQ-wVzFGdoMymYpXpvQDY4/w480-h640/IMG_9702.JPG" width="480" /></a></div>The MLB owners' ostensible willingness to let Fisher implode his franchise via a crackpot relocation scheme to Las Vegas is just the tip of the "iceberg of shame" that is circling the game as cracks in its business façade grow larger and more visible. <br /><p></p><p>Worst of all is the absurd brinksmanship that has to come to pass regarding the A's whereabouts in 2025, which threatens to make the team into the permanent laughingstock of professional sports. <b>Rob Manfred</b>, baseball's version of the Emperor Nero, keeps fiddling with the zipper on his trousers (nothing to see there, folks!) while a franchise burns to the ground for no good reason...</p><p>...except for what Fisher must be holding over the heads of his billionaire brethren.</p><p>We will be joining what we expect will be a large contingent of activists and A's fans whose plans for 2024 call for a strategic series of "anti-boycotts" geared to remind MLB that a relatively benign owner in charge of the A's could still salvage this lunatic turn of events. <u>Imagine 25,000 people night after night coming to the Oakland Mausoleum, their garb of protest concealed while entering Ground Zero, then unleashing a green sea of "Sell the Team" shirts in the fifth inning of each game while chanting "SELL THE TEAM" at the top of their lungs.</u></p><p>Fisher would take the extra $$ and run, of course, but the point would be made: Oakland is still a viable major league venue for baseball, and the scurrilous nonsense that has been visited upon the team and the city is nothing more that the rat-poisoned behavior of robber-baron billionaires who are nothing more of less than ruthless corporate predators.</p><p>This is the time for unabashed activism in Oakland and around MLB. <u>Demonstrations echoing the "SELL THE TEAM!" performances should be scheduled to occur at <b>all of the A's road games in 2024</b>,</u> to drive the point home that this is a national issue, not just a regional squabble. </p><p>It is time for the public to rise up and do its utmost to remove John Fisher from MLB once and for all. It might not succeed, but the effort must be made. Baseball should be saved for Oakland and the citizens of Las Vegas should be spared from taking on a team whose owner is a veritable pariah. </p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-46356070711927337112024-01-21T17:15:00.000-08:002024-01-21T17:20:28.737-08:00IN SEARCH OF/6: THE GREATEST HOME RUN HITTER OF ALL TIME...<p>THAT'S right, we're shifting the terms in our study of top-level home run hitters. (Given what tends to happen around here, you probably aren't all that surprised...)</p><p>After all, we know now that it's <b>Babe Ruth</b> who hit the most HRs against a single opponent (123 vs. the Detroit Tigers). And we know now that a very few hitters in our post-postmodern age have hit at least one homer against every franchise (<b>Sammy Sosa</b>, for one--maybe we'll provide you with a list one of these days).</p><p>Now we should really dig in and draw a conclusion--make a value judgment as opposed to merely slinging data. And so we have a nice diagram for you that will summarize the data presented for fourteen of the top home run hitters of all time, and from that we'll boldly follow in the footsteps of those who live to make sweeping pronouncements...</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK4m3fOIeIbh0YXUhngWMKIY3FYIS7GVR3YMvL0l44eVK9OknmDcGBFepP5t030SGKtBcHY_bEjU8VF_UdAlTWRAeGrh04mDi-36tbv-ACO6XNtDl8F836d7CwEx7AWnP-leYeqE4BRSQ3L9PG28bafyy9Yu3vNUSscS1L1pwQIuI_L6RLa2vV0_k1Ems/s2737/Top%20HR%20hitters%20GvB%20+%20HR9000PA%20rates%20png.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1166" data-original-width="2737" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK4m3fOIeIbh0YXUhngWMKIY3FYIS7GVR3YMvL0l44eVK9OknmDcGBFepP5t030SGKtBcHY_bEjU8VF_UdAlTWRAeGrh04mDi-36tbv-ACO6XNtDl8F836d7CwEx7AWnP-leYeqE4BRSQ3L9PG28bafyy9Yu3vNUSscS1L1pwQIuI_L6RLa2vV0_k1Ems/w640-h270/Top%20HR%20hitters%20GvB%20+%20HR9000PA%20rates%20png.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>SO what have we done here? We've brought over the "good vs. bad" (GvB) data for these fourteen sluggers ("bad" shown shaded in orange, "good" shaded in yellow) and shown some differential data to boot. </p><p>The HR/G differential is geared to show better performance against bad teams as a negative outcome, so when you see a HR/G differential that's less than one (for example, <b>Albert Pujols' </b>.827) that reminds you that he, along with eight other top sluggers, took advantage of bad opponents in terms of hitting the long ball. </p><p>The same is the case for the HR/PA data.</p><p>Then we show the differential for how many PAs each slugger had in the GvB data. Babe Ruth had the most extra PAs against sub-.500 ("bad") teams, upwards of 20% more; on the other hand, <b>Frank Robinson </b>had 16% more PAs against good teams.</p><p>We use those data points to due a crude hypothetical adjustment of each slugger's HR/PA. The "GvB PA diff" is applied to the actual HR/PA to recalibrate the HR/PA percentage based on each slugger having an equal number of PAs vs. good and bad teams.</p><p>When we do that, Babe Ruth's 6.7% drops to 6.0%; <b>Barry Bonds</b>, whose GvB PAs were roughly equal, moves up from 6.0% to 6.1%. </p><p><b>Mark McGwire's</b> adjusted HR/PA also takes a hit, but note that his actual HR/PA is so much higher than all the others (even Ruth's) that he still has a massive lead. </p><p>There is no doubt--McGwire is the greatest homer hitter of all time. Of course, he didn't hit the most HRs ever, but he hit <u>by far the most per 100 PAs</u>. Quibble or cavil about steroids and cheating if you must, but the numbers are incontrovertible. </p><p>The bottom row just shows the number of HRs each man would be expected to hit in 9000 plate appearances. Many of these sluggers had more than 9000 PA, in some cases (Pujols. Bonds, <b>Hank Aaron</b>) man* more than 9000 PA. That's one reason why they hit 700+ HRs. </p><p>McGwire, however, was injured a good bit in the middle part of his career, and his total career PAs are actually less than 8000. Again, we can quibble about pro-rating him to 9000 PAs because (of course) he didn't actually get that many PAs. We could have used his actual total as the benchmark, but 9000 PA seemed like a reasonable middle ground. (The results would be the same, only the numbers would be somewhat different.)</p><p>At 9000 PAs, McGwire is projected to hit 80 more homers than Ruth. He's projected to hit 131 more HRs than Sammy Sosa. At 9000 PAs, many of these sluggers don't quite get to the magic 500 number. Exactly half of them (seven of fourteen), in fact.</p><p>That's how much more frequent Big Mac's blasts really were. </p><p>Thus he is without question <u>the greatest home run hitter of all time</u>.</p><p>Of the four greatest home run hitters of all time (based on HR/PA and HR/9000, only one of them is currently in the Hall of Fame. </p><p>It's a sick situation, kiddies...and it's not going to change anytime soon. What an utter travesty.</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-83902938951971912592024-01-18T07:07:00.000-08:002024-01-21T16:17:01.129-08:00IN SEARCH OF/5: THE MOST HOMERS HIT by A HITTER VS. AN OPPOSING TEAM<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWQRh4Aowa5tqdkhFqx5URhY2IpAb_NOFGKg0w40kPrQ3LHviC2xlbdSs9mG0F8gj9JVlC2R-1StC_l8R7UHSA-PL-I634_Ffp2ppV9eAJf7aa3ZNEMSijguPur9i3o3KuT52xBxdtSiC0OOzRm39DhWWUmEOU08u54SC22BA5kcmZ8EJKJv0PUqsnYkA/s680/IMG_9061.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="544" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWQRh4Aowa5tqdkhFqx5URhY2IpAb_NOFGKg0w40kPrQ3LHviC2xlbdSs9mG0F8gj9JVlC2R-1StC_l8R7UHSA-PL-I634_Ffp2ppV9eAJf7aa3ZNEMSijguPur9i3o3KuT52xBxdtSiC0OOzRm39DhWWUmEOU08u54SC22BA5kcmZ8EJKJv0PUqsnYkA/w319-h400/IMG_9061.jpg" width="319" /></a></div><i>[Soapbox mode on...] </i>Some will never admit it, but the 1998-99 "top-shelf homer competish" between <b>Mark McGwire</b> and <b>Samm</b>y<b> Sosa</b> was a unique pinnacle in baseball history. The two men combined for 263 homers over those two seasons, cruising ahead of the Sosa-<b>Barr</b>y<b> Bonds</b> tandem n 2001-02 (232). <p></p><p>Care to mention <b>Ruth & Gehrig</b> in this discussion? Go ahead: the men who invented the nickname "Bronx Bombers" combined for "only" 188 in 1927-28. (That's 75 fewer homers than Mac & Sammy. True, they had 16 fewer games to work with over those two seasons, but still...)</p><p>It's still hard to believe, but these two consummate sluggers combined for 1192 lifetime HRs, and are still so far on the outside looking in that they might as well be in another solar system as regards... ...you know... <i>(whispering) </i>...enshrinement. </p><p>They are two cogs in a five-star* cluster, a <i>maudit </i>constellation formed by an avalanche of backlash that stubbornly refuses to thaw, and that is a bigger blight upon baseball and humanity than anything the unholy five might have done in pursuit of their martyred excellence. </p><p>Collating home run totals in four-year intervals, we find that there are fifteen (15) instances of players hitting 200+ HRs over any four-year period. Sosa (five) and McGwire (three) account for more than half of them. It's quite possible--likely, even, that we'll never see another member of this fraternity, which includes that other excoriated slugger--<b>Barry Bonds</b>, who exceed 200 HRs over four years three times (1999-2002, 2000-2003, 2001-2004)--as well as two fellas who are actually in the Hall of Fame: <b>Babe Ruth</b> (two 200+ HR four-year skeins in 1926-29 and 1927-30), and (wait for it) <b>Ken Griffey Jr.</b> (two times, in 1996-99 and 1997-2000).</p><p>For all the punishment Sosa, McGwire and Bonds dished out to baseballs during those "impossible years" clustered around the turn of the century, they've received an inordinate and unseemly excoriation in an endless tsunami of backlash that can truly be said to epitomize the perfervid "century of inchoate revenge" in which we are all now forced to dwell. It would be a small but significant reversal of this blood* state of mind if those three were simply put into Cooperstown via something akin to an executive order, in recognition of the fact that otherwise rational minds have just up and left the building with respect to this matter. <i>[Soapbox mode off...]</i></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZOUF6FumInI-Hfhhn4I3TxejkZyX2JA-innn8oIlaGfHSX4r_-s8lHMQh7W-NTgcTx78ZgIqiz1tHcV5SsCAi-ObeXVYIL1iPAfAORIgsn60gjdDiITzuhEUiPdEy8Ix5xLnvazzAl8g4xB8GljijMvG22PfI4oqNhSY36aye4UqfMxqw8ZcOC2KWlDw/s1970/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Sosa.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1970" data-original-width="1312" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZOUF6FumInI-Hfhhn4I3TxejkZyX2JA-innn8oIlaGfHSX4r_-s8lHMQh7W-NTgcTx78ZgIqiz1tHcV5SsCAi-ObeXVYIL1iPAfAORIgsn60gjdDiITzuhEUiPdEy8Ix5xLnvazzAl8g4xB8GljijMvG22PfI4oqNhSY36aye4UqfMxqw8ZcOC2KWlDw/w426-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Sosa.png" width="426" /></a></div>Now let's look at the homer vs. opponent data for Sammy and Big Mac, (hopefully) cleansed of our need to permanently transfer guilt. Let's start with Sammy...<p></p><p>As we can see, Sosa hit at least one homer against every franchise, but he had some favorite targets, most of them in the National League.</p><p>The NL Central teams that Sammy faced during his tenure with the Cubs (Astros, Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates) were generally not the teams that he excelled against homer-wise, as the HR/PA data suggests. </p><p>(The exception: Milwaukee, a team that transferred to the NL just in time to get sandblasted by Sammy over a six-year period.)</p><p>In terms of homers in opposition ballparks, it will not be surprising to discover that Sosa hit the most in Coors Field (21), followed by Qualcomm in San Diego (20). </p><p>(He also hit two in Petco Park, but he also hit four in the Rockies' first home park, Mile High Stadium, so his favorite "opposition city" was still Denver.)</p><p>He also did a number on the NL's late-nineties expansion club (the D-backs). </p><p>Note that Sammy did enjoy hitting the long ball against bad teams: his HR/G and HR/PA values are quite elevated against teams with a losing record.</p><p></p>Let's conclude our look at Sosa's shoved-to-the-side accomplishments by noting that <u>he is second all-time in terms of the number of homers hit in a single park</u>: he hit 293 HRs in Wrigley Field, behind only <b>Mel Ott</b>, who hit 323 homers at the Polo Grounds.<br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeu77doG8iaUldGhZN6UzqmxBils529yjkfL4H1oYA55SDYgBakXtEHR1CZTGnLcbT1vDbqFMTz8gCyseEpfBZGwBpEGHqmnclb2nobE_LYFhz9IBq_wUlGtIjr_zMS3mCgQVwVSFYczK7FEvmcw7FQavrLT_n8-7AE8yDxjG95DJKO2vrLp3u7Xa6i6E/s2025/HR%20v%20Opponent%20McGwire.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2025" data-original-width="1287" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeu77doG8iaUldGhZN6UzqmxBils529yjkfL4H1oYA55SDYgBakXtEHR1CZTGnLcbT1vDbqFMTz8gCyseEpfBZGwBpEGHqmnclb2nobE_LYFhz9IBq_wUlGtIjr_zMS3mCgQVwVSFYczK7FEvmcw7FQavrLT_n8-7AE8yDxjG95DJKO2vrLp3u7Xa6i6E/w406-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20McGwire.png" width="406" /></a></div>Now on to Big Mac, whose late-career run in the National League produces some incredibly eye-popping HR/PA values...<p></p><p>...not to mention some truly <u>surreal</u> HR/G values as well. .609 against the Marlins; .548 vs. Sosa's Cubs; .514 against the Padres (who in this time frame were not bad: they went to the World Series in 1998); .500 against the Mets. </p><p>The only NL teams that seemed to have Big Mac's number, HR-wise, were the Reds (.180 HR/G) and the Braves (.231). </p><p>But what's especially mind-blowing with respect to McGwire's numbers is that overall HR/PA rate (7.6%), which just shoots past everyone (even Ruth) and resides in a zone of its own. Note that, unlike Sosa, Big Mac had an essentially even rate against both good and bad opponents. </p><p><b>Aaron Judge</b> is the closest thing to McGwire that we're likely to see in our (collective) lifetime. Big Mac holds the record for the most HRs hit in four consecutive seasons, with 245; Judge's four best (non-consecutive) HR seasons (2017, 2021-23) add up to 190. In order to get into the 200 club for four consecutive seasons, Judge needs to match his 2022 total of 62 homers. He could do that, absolutely: but if he did, he'd <i>still</i> be 45 homers short of Big Mac's mark from 199*-99. </p><p>Chew on that for a moment...or a lifetime.</p><p>__</p><p><i>The "five-star cluster" includes Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro in addition to McGwire, Sosa and Bonds. It also seems to extend to Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez as well. </i></p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-77589254401017690002024-01-14T23:27:00.000-08:002024-01-14T23:27:52.995-08:00IN SEARCH OF/4: THE MOST HRs HIT by A HITTER VS. AN OPPOSING TEAM<p>BEFORE we take on the question of "who's the greatest homer hitter of all time" (a discussion that has many perspectives but only one irrefutable answer...) let's spend a little more time with the detailed breakouts we've been presenting. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw9E4Wp6-OP9pBc1cm-QWIczfxEFgUYKbuKSYrj_QFWbXmtu7243QUGnhi91mRPynizPJCYBhBbYIL3Ysm5fCr2CKTn1H8oALLqoex62W6vvCjK0z_uCclyhpD7bMyPvnamT47ewZkScMcRjLalQnoOaO00QOLFagxhuTE-zIQfdYOYmUYP6eplLEkmW8/s1970/HR%20v%20Opponent%20A-Rod.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1970" data-original-width="1283" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw9E4Wp6-OP9pBc1cm-QWIczfxEFgUYKbuKSYrj_QFWbXmtu7243QUGnhi91mRPynizPJCYBhBbYIL3Ysm5fCr2CKTn1H8oALLqoex62W6vvCjK0z_uCclyhpD7bMyPvnamT47ewZkScMcRjLalQnoOaO00QOLFagxhuTE-zIQfdYOYmUYP6eplLEkmW8/w414-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20A-Rod.png" width="414" /></a></div>We'll go more a bit more contemporary with this comparison--a look at two sluggers who were, for a time at last, teammates: <b>Alex Rodriguez</b> and <b>Ken Griffey Jr</b>. <p></p><p>Let's start with the controversial one, currently hard at work on rehabilitating his image...</p><p>FIRST thing you'll note is that A-Rod actually <i>did</i> play against every big league team--a fact that also ensures that his highest HR total against any opponent is not going to come within yodeling distance of Babe Ruth's 123 HRs vs. the Detroit Tigers.</p><p>The Angels were the team he victimized the most--a total of 70 HRs in less than a thousand plate appearances. That works out to a .338 HR/G average and a 7.5% HR/PA.</p><p>His highest HR/PA, however (for teams whom he played against in more than 50 games) was against the Twins (7.8%).</p><p>He was also quite effective against the team with whom he would eventually become synonymous--those ever-infamous Bronx Bombers. </p><p>So, aside from an inconvenient suspension, what kept A-Rod from being the fifth man with 700+ HRs?</p><p>That would be his clearly sub-par performance in interleague play: where his HR/PA is only 4.4%.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV5VhYLs5oqLPiaL4XW0V7IK3LmrgFm3K8YHlJLqWbLLi8ORWqySYdM3mkH6BrrOY6HisBDww__ueRF6OunzNjWL9Gf4V2sOIF4yqvmka5kuvyZ15ty9gbaQ-s6kC6EiCz0eLBMpMuF1I7u6rVvKxvI88J4CwXE46LCd67OfXKb652ysBp2HRvxOVppnE/s1970/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Griffey%20Jr.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1970" data-original-width="1283" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV5VhYLs5oqLPiaL4XW0V7IK3LmrgFm3K8YHlJLqWbLLi8ORWqySYdM3mkH6BrrOY6HisBDww__ueRF6OunzNjWL9Gf4V2sOIF4yqvmka5kuvyZ15ty9gbaQ-s6kC6EiCz0eLBMpMuF1I7u6rVvKxvI88J4CwXE46LCd67OfXKb652ysBp2HRvxOVppnE/w414-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Griffey%20Jr.png" width="414" /></a></div>Note that A-Rod had a higher HR/G and HR/PA rate against good teams than he did vs. bad teams. That will be in direct contrast with his counterpart in this post...<br /><p></p><p>Interestingly, Junior hit more homers in interleague play than he did against any individual opponent: his totals and percentages are among the most uniformly spread-out of any you'll find in this list of 500+ HR sluggers.</p><p>He barely had any games against his original team (the Seattle Mariners) but he did manage to do some damage (9.7% HR/PA) against them...</p><p>His numbers against the Colorado Rockies were enhanced by his 20 games in Coors Field, where he hit 9 HRs and had a .737 SLG.</p><p>He was almost as devastating when he played in the Cardinals' new stadium during his tour with the Reds, hitting six homers there in nine games, posting a .724 SLG there.</p><p>Junior hit 20 or more HRs against sixteen teams; we're not sure it's the record, but if it isn't, it's likely darned close to it.</p><p>Note, though, that he was much better at putting it to bad teams, as shown by his HR/G and HR/PA values in the GvB breakout.</p><p>Up next: who is the "greatest HR hitter of all time"? Think that over while you "stay tuned"...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-68097656421797297122024-01-13T23:59:00.000-08:002024-01-14T07:09:00.922-08:00IN SEARCH OF/3: THE MOST HOMERS HIT by A HITTER vs. AN OPPOSING TEAM<p>BACK at it after another hiatus...we will eventually shift the focus of this series to cover the HR/PA percentage sweepstakes, which currently has <b>Babe Ruth</b> out in front of all competitors.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtuzCTk-M-0qsmbgSDB7q7HlKnVKmeCU7xmi5WJWka6UTPlnHbpsGNh6YBT_zR9JnB3UzGCXVxx1DIRcZeTH5mlNN__wR1RVtQH21K1SqW0pGjuA-AeN1yXLDJ0Ns281EcngZYpnjU8UUHyfbtUaewXNzB5WiKaxDKfi-x4OMaPVwb2DhdMRhYsjPghns/s2041/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Foxx.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2041" data-original-width="1283" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtuzCTk-M-0qsmbgSDB7q7HlKnVKmeCU7xmi5WJWka6UTPlnHbpsGNh6YBT_zR9JnB3UzGCXVxx1DIRcZeTH5mlNN__wR1RVtQH21K1SqW0pGjuA-AeN1yXLDJ0Ns281EcngZYpnjU8UUHyfbtUaewXNzB5WiKaxDKfi-x4OMaPVwb2DhdMRhYsjPghns/w402-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Foxx.png" width="402" /></a></div>In this installment, however, we continue to look for hitters who might eclipse Ruth's record for homers against a single opposing team: that total, in case it's slipped your mind, is 123 (a very nice number indeed, one that should remain readily rememberable; the Babe amassed that total against the Detroit Tigers).<p></p><p>So we turn our attention to hitters who played against a more limited number of opponents, figuring that this type of investigation will be the quickest way to determine if anyone can wrest this particular feat awav from the Bambino</p><p>First, <b>Jimmie Foxx</b>, whose total of 534 HRs was second only to Ruth for more than three decades, and who had very limited playing time in the National League, as the chart at right will reveal.</p><p>As you can see, it's those Tigers again (93 homers allowed to Foxx...) who are the favored victims--their ballpark was conducive to the long ball (particularly by opposing sluggers!). The lowly St. Louis Browns gave the Tigers a run for their money, but came up just short with 87 HRs.</p><p>Interestingly, Foxx had his lowest HR/PA against the Red Sox; we'd have expected it to be the Washington Senators due to the home run suppressive characteristics of Griffith Stadium, their home park for the timespan of Foxx's career. </p><p>Note also that Foxx bucks the general trend of homer hitters feasting on weekend competition: his HR/PA against good teams (those with a WPCT of .500+) is actually six-tenths of a percent higher than against the major also-rans (<.500 WPCT).</p><p>We will eventually sum up those percentages for all of the notable homer hitters and present our findings.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIymZFDOOPTpruL3eq1beQD3or9fzpIlCCFjAO9zJxHyA5MylqEaBVek72UhdU0vGtdkm9YZj1I466CXAv7IesznHH5Y1xeI2DKeeZgtBMIQ0WBvaATlbHS7W_aofSCe0u2GUx2krp6z82UA-acbzXPEXbszxesHZKCr8aj00FR62WsWdi3s6aQ4l6ziI/s2041/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Mays.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2041" data-original-width="1287" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIymZFDOOPTpruL3eq1beQD3or9fzpIlCCFjAO9zJxHyA5MylqEaBVek72UhdU0vGtdkm9YZj1I466CXAv7IesznHH5Y1xeI2DKeeZgtBMIQ0WBvaATlbHS7W_aofSCe0u2GUx2krp6z82UA-acbzXPEXbszxesHZKCr8aj00FR62WsWdi3s6aQ4l6ziI/w404-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Mays.png" width="404" /></a></div>Now let's move on to <b>Willie Mays</b>, who was thought to be the most robust of challengers for Ruth's overall HR record but who began to fade in the late sixties and wound up around fifty homers shy of 714.<p></p><p>Willie never played a single regular-season game against an AL opponent, which would seem to make him into an ideal candidate to challenge the Babe's "single opponent" record.</p><p>But, as you can see in the chart at left, Mays is also unable to get especially close to Ruth's 123 vs. the Tigers. The best he can do in chasing this record is to hit 98 homers against the Dodgers.</p><p>That pushed him one homer ahead of <b>Hank Aaron</b>, who hit 97 HRs vs. the Cincinnati Reds during his career.</p><p>The introduction of expansion teams did not particularly favor Mays--his only really robust HR/PA value against the NL's new teams came against the Mets. </p><p>Willie was extremely consistent in his HR/PA versus good/bad teams, coming in with a 5.3% against both types. </p><p>With these two hitters now accounted for, it's becoming hard to imagine that any of the other sluggers are going to eclipse the Babe in this subcategory of longball <i>legerdemain</i>. And neither man came particularly close to Ruth's HR/PA...which brings us back to what is possibly the most relevant question to be answered via the data in this series: who really is the greatest home run hitter of all time? Hold that thought: we'll get back to it...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-69089101247994762642024-01-06T09:50:00.000-08:002024-01-06T10:01:30.707-08:00IN SEARCH OF/2: THE MOST HOMERS HIT BY A HITTER vs. AN OPPOSING TEAM<p>ONWARD we go in search of "the ultimate long ball victim, opposing team division." In this installment we continue examining homers vs. opponent breakouts for our other two 700+ HR hitters--<b>Babe Ruth</b> and <b>Hank Aaron</b>. Let's get right to the Bambino...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4AnlP1dMRvDIfGN3LObmZFe2wGAT68msc_Sic6QRA_LPxctMPFbWQWYdLfIb-aJgiEt2IdE0o7DvsjFSiULd2vyDKVAQf8xoyOzMV8Ydc93kf18sPIr5FfMNUhgGgg7arqwLNiXtbv_KplnLixirYVJmZs1FjsfghucphNfgQcyd-x6XdyNGdZeE-j0/s2020/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Ruth.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2020" data-original-width="1279" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4AnlP1dMRvDIfGN3LObmZFe2wGAT68msc_Sic6QRA_LPxctMPFbWQWYdLfIb-aJgiEt2IdE0o7DvsjFSiULd2vyDKVAQf8xoyOzMV8Ydc93kf18sPIr5FfMNUhgGgg7arqwLNiXtbv_KplnLixirYVJmZs1FjsfghucphNfgQcyd-x6XdyNGdZeE-j0/w406-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Ruth.png" width="406" /></a></div>Last time we saw that the HR/PA (which, in fact, is "homers per 100 plate appearances," expressed as a percentage) was in the five to six percentage range) for <b>Barry Bonds</b> and <b>Albert Pujols</b> (with Bonds right at six percent). <p></p><p>As we'll see, that's going to be higher for <b>Babe Ruth</b>, who's closer to seven percent. Might that be the highest such ratio for a hitter over baseball's 150+ seasons? (Wait for it...)</p><p>Given the gaps on the chart, it's clear that Ruth's career occurred in pre-expansion times. The Babe had plate appearances against fifteen teams, missing against his final team, the Boston Braves (who would appear in the row marked ATL if the Bambino had faced them). </p><p>The range for Ruth's prodigious long-ball theatrics is rather narrow: from 123 vs. the Detroit Tigers, down to 89 vs. the Washington Senators, whose home park in those days (Griffith Stadium) suppressed homers. (Note that we've placed the Senators in the row marked "MIN", since the original Washington team moved to Minneapolis during the first round of expansion.)</p><p>What's revealed in this table is a fact that is well-established: the Bambino was, plain and simple, a home run machine. with HR/PA figures residing above six percent for all seven of his major AL opponents. He even had a HR/PA of above six percent against the Yankees, a team he faced for just a little more than five seasons (1914-19) while he was with the Red Sox. </p><p>Ruth's HR/G average against good and bad teams has less separation than what we saw for Bonds and Pujols--as we said, a home run machine.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ6Bzm0HxQr82EVokCxVXbUfAM-uYVpT17ilFRfmvpT9x6CZq4TBAqghwXPfjRSnPus5yL2BYyG2YevGsWuykMCSRlEUuGRxMJ_b427KzM3PrFMk5SCBpKnb-UKqu-xwX3D1B97wt51zpQQV8j-u9U44RduUAnYN5P5b8Mn0WDlP75C9J-oqK_NkFaWAA/s2020/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Aaron.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2020" data-original-width="1312" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ6Bzm0HxQr82EVokCxVXbUfAM-uYVpT17ilFRfmvpT9x6CZq4TBAqghwXPfjRSnPus5yL2BYyG2YevGsWuykMCSRlEUuGRxMJ_b427KzM3PrFMk5SCBpKnb-UKqu-xwX3D1B97wt51zpQQV8j-u9U44RduUAnYN5P5b8Mn0WDlP75C9J-oqK_NkFaWAA/w414-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Aaron.png" width="414" /></a></div>Note those numbers against the Pirates--three HRs in three games. That reflects Ruth's final moment of glory in 1935, when he hit three homers in the same game at Forbes Field. It makes for a eye-popping HR/PA, doesn't it?<p></p><p>Now let's move on to <b>Hank Aaron</b>. <br /></p><p>The Hammer spent 21 seasons with the Braves and two with the Brewers at the tail end of his career, so he faced twenty-two of the possible franchises that were in existence during his career. </p><p>(Note that Aaron's totals against the Dodgers, Giants, and Reds are higher than the other NL teams: that's because when divisions were introduced, those three teams were part of the Braves' division, along with the Houston Astros from the first expansion, and the San Diego Padres from the second. That also explains how Aaron appeared in more games against the Padres than the other second-wave expansion team, the Montreal Expos--the uneven schedule meant fewer games against the "other division. As we can see, it adds up fast: that 80-to-57 difference occurred in just six seasons.)</p><p>The Padres were Aaron's favorite victims percentage-wise--a HR/PA of just over eight percent. But it's the Reds who were team he hit up for the highest total of HRs--97. It's a bit surprising that his next highest total (95) is against the Dodgers, whose home park for thirteen seasons in Aaron's career was known for its suppressive tendencies. Aaron hit 22 HRs in Dodger Stadium over 95 games (a respectable pace of 37 HRs for a full season), but he also hit nine HRs at the Coliseum (in 45 games) and eleven HRs in Ebbets Field (in just 40 games). </p><p>Given the Dodgers' rep, it's odd to note that Aaron's lowest HR/PA value is, in fact, against the Giants (4.9%). </p><p>SO Aaron, too, was a homer machine--as we've seen, the numbers when expressed in HR/G and HR/PA don't move around all that much--but note two things: 1) he hit for a higher HR/PA against good teams than bad teams and 2) he broke Ruth's record in part due to his undeniable talent, but also because he amassed 3,000+ more plate appearances in his career. In a way, he didn't break Ruth's record so much as he outlasted it.</p><p>We'll be back with more folks in our next installment, in search for higher raw HR totals against an opponent (right now, Ruth's 123 against the Tigers is our top value) and for someone with a higher HR/PA. Stay tuned...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-87740481422729922172024-01-05T17:41:00.000-08:002024-01-06T09:51:33.783-08:00IN SEARCH OF/1: THE MOST HOMERS HIT BY A HITTER vs. AN OPPOSING TEAM<p>SOUNDS simple, doesn't it? But who knows the answer? </p><p>The data is hidden away in the recesses of baseball archives...and we have to dig into the splits data of hitters in order to bring it to the surface.</p><p>So we will start showing the results of that "dig"--two hitters at a time. We'll begin with those folk who, if one thinks about it for a bit, can't be the answer to our question...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsAuFggsW81LkxhZUggrNjGRGkp1syPdxnPMxvux5ueh_zYi4K0pqHcYu9CKXM_dJmK676CdDX9S9m0s_qtc54Brjw8MNd9D8z4h-AgkRe2DENLAz7hz5GC1nnO716HPJaL4XX4ML9Q547QazskFrkWm0BBb1u2Z4dCt05tsF8WwcwwvwrvJTN6hjCI7w/s1970/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Pujols.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1970" data-original-width="1283" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsAuFggsW81LkxhZUggrNjGRGkp1syPdxnPMxvux5ueh_zYi4K0pqHcYu9CKXM_dJmK676CdDX9S9m0s_qtc54Brjw8MNd9D8z4h-AgkRe2DENLAz7hz5GC1nnO716HPJaL4XX4ML9Q547QazskFrkWm0BBb1u2Z4dCt05tsF8WwcwwvwrvJTN6hjCI7w/w413-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Pujols.png" width="413" /></a></div>...because the nature of baseball's schedule has changed dramatically in the past six decades. Hitters face more teams than they ever did in the past, as will become obvious when we post "part two" of this series. <p></p><p>And the more teams that hitters face in their careers, the less likely they are to cluster their homer hitting against any particular team.<br /></p><p>So, as you can see in our first breakout (we'll start with the four hitters who've hit 700+ lifetime homers), <b>Albert Pujols</b>' highest total of HRs against any opponent is just sixty-two (the Houston Astros).</p><p>What these breakouts also provide, as you'll see, are homer rates against opponents--expressed in two separate ways: first, in HR/G, in a value that kinda sorta looks like a batting average (but, of course, isn't); and second, in a "percentage of plate appearances" value similar to what you'd find if you still had a copy of the original <i>Macmillan Baseball Encyclopedia</i>. For Albert, you can see that he did manage to play games against all thirty teams (including the Cardinals and the Angels, the two that he primarily played for). </p><p>And we've highlighted the teams where he had the highest HR/PA percentages--which, oddly, doesn't include the Astros, who due to a fluke in baseball history, became the team that Pujols played against far more than any other. (Remember that the Astros changed leagues in 2013, which coincides almost exactly with Albert's move to the AL with the Angels.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK11VyGhKobzT24nAo0HdPE0kVFyr250E1dkBgbZ1K1m1rh4-laiYOBt5Il8qVlFIK5ltIt1NDOBiXypiSCtwNW5_4VK9rES_dQa-ihTnlMlKhiq_bcFX7ha65TbwK36tcvGlfFqRQN_TpeycwW4DM9-BjQgZANGKQZOJC9Uts4_oQWg2sLGAKvMhjoIU/s1970/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Bonds.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1970" data-original-width="1283" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK11VyGhKobzT24nAo0HdPE0kVFyr250E1dkBgbZ1K1m1rh4-laiYOBt5Il8qVlFIK5ltIt1NDOBiXypiSCtwNW5_4VK9rES_dQa-ihTnlMlKhiq_bcFX7ha65TbwK36tcvGlfFqRQN_TpeycwW4DM9-BjQgZANGKQZOJC9Uts4_oQWg2sLGAKvMhjoIU/w414-h640/HR%20v%20Opponent%20Bonds.png" width="414" /></a></div>All of Albert's highest HR/PA are against NL teams, which shouldn't surprise us when we look at his OPS+ values for playing there (170) as opposed to the AL (108). Note also that Albert took good advantage of lesser teams, as his raw HR totals (400 vs. 303 against teams with .500+ WPCT) and his HR/PA rates demonstrate.<p></p><p>NOW let's move on to <b>Barry Bonds</b>, the man that many still would prefer to ignore as the all-time home run champ. <br /></p><p>Bonds' distribution is much more heavily stacked toward NL opponents, and his career occurred partially during the time before interleague play, so he has about half as many such games as is the case with Albert.</p><p>As you can see, the Padres are the team that Bonds took long--with 87 HRs, easily beating the Dodgers and Pirates, who finish a distant second. In terms of HR/PA, however, Barry did more damage in his games versus the Brewers and the A's (though both of these opponents faced Bonds in far fewer than 100 games--a situation that they're both probably still grateful for).</p><p>Note that despite playing in close to 3000 games, Bonds managed to miss Cleveland entirely. (We'll see a whole lot more blank spaces on these breakouts when we move on to players like Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Willie Mays, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle.)</p><p>Bonds also took advantage of lesser teams according to HR/PA, but his plate appearances actually shaded slightly toward .500+ teams over his career, as opposed to what we saw with Albert.</p><p>SO that gets us started--we'll be back with the other two 700+ HR hitters in the next installment. And we'll see which teams those two guys (you just might know who they are without us having to mention their names, n'est-ce pas?) victimized the most with the long ball. And we'll likely see the highest lifetime HR/PA value as well...or will we? Stay tuned...</p><p></p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-58196789242448894912023-12-29T06:17:00.000-08:002023-12-29T06:17:30.666-08:00WORLD SERIES TEAMS WITH SUB-.500 ROAD RECORDS...<p>THIS is most likely our last post for 2023, with the early part of '24 certain to bring us the chess/checkers machinations of present-day GMs and the ongoing loopiness of the Hall of Fame voting process.</p><p>And for a swan song we have something relevant from the '23 season itself--the seventh occurrence of a phenomenon that, in this instance at least, is overlain with irony (fear not, we'll explain that reference eventually)...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDOEgKZp0_wsZvwVy5m5Ku1iV7A2fmtY2aWz0lIp6SpJHA40n_Iyh0GI7iCRM1al50wsZnPlGzo8nBqJj0nBV1YH0342YLIVM7SxxcGtNcMp7RkePXLh7kRajMZnjZRv67tqHWRORE_HtiEzf7ZNgtk-PU1D-DZm_DH8ZEuXOxQAOyyXutXoUs3Ypt7ms/s1312/WS%20Teams%20with%20sub-.500%20road%20records%20png.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1312" data-original-width="825" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDOEgKZp0_wsZvwVy5m5Ku1iV7A2fmtY2aWz0lIp6SpJHA40n_Iyh0GI7iCRM1al50wsZnPlGzo8nBqJj0nBV1YH0342YLIVM7SxxcGtNcMp7RkePXLh7kRajMZnjZRv67tqHWRORE_HtiEzf7ZNgtk-PU1D-DZm_DH8ZEuXOxQAOyyXutXoUs3Ypt7ms/w251-h400/WS%20Teams%20with%20sub-.500%20road%20records%20png.png" width="251" /></a></div>Just what are we talking about--seventh son of a seventh son, or something like that? No, it's not some antediluvian mumbo-jumbo: it's simply the seventh time that a team winning the World Series did so despite having a losing record in road games during the regular season.<br /><p></p><p>A total of twenty-three teams have won league pennants while playing sub-.500 baseball on the road, as the chart at right will show you. Only 21 of those are relevant to the World Series, however, since the 1902 A's and the 1914 Indianapolis Hoosiers (Federal League) had no World Series in which to participate.</p><p>So that means that one of every three teams to win a pennant with a sub-.500 record in road games has gone on to win the World Series.</p><p>AND the most recent team to do so: the <b>2023 Texas Rangers</b>--who, in the height of irony, <u>achieved their post-season feat by winning all of their post-season road games</u>.</p><p>As you can see, most of these teams were just barely "in the red" with respect to their road record--14 of the 21 teams who played in the WS had a road WPCT of .481-.494. The two WS champs who were truly sub-par road teams are shown right up at the top--the <b>1987 Minnesota Twins</b> (29-52) and the <b>2006 St. Louis Cardinals</b> (34-47). </p><p>We've never had teams face off in the World Series who both had sub-.500 road WPCTs, but we came close this past year: the Arizona Diamondbacks had a 41-40 record in road games. That combined road record of 81-81 isn't the lowest of all time for World Series opponents, however: such would be found in 1987, thanks to the woeful road record of Twins. Combining their 29-52 with the 1987 Cardinals' 46-35 mark, we get a combined road won-loss record of 75-87 for that World Series--which was the first World Series where the teams won all of their home games.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGHZzytJpHUERCveAwkliSpCYzXEW87rwLgQIvvo-vx1XWmZ2SZGeYYsZvkIwoSp45jbEBMi0YCfynmLJlVU6YDmxNaME5OJt0RwHBnLnEwvcuS4zIUaL_jp-wyIsyLi5LsZm_yIYvJmK0Im3H8TV8u3Lq2i7ZyV64RSzF5983ovEk1kcpet6Q50UcNYs/s1045/TimeGrid%E2%84%A2%20WS%20Teams%20with%20%3C500%20road%20WPCT%20png.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="1045" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGHZzytJpHUERCveAwkliSpCYzXEW87rwLgQIvvo-vx1XWmZ2SZGeYYsZvkIwoSp45jbEBMi0YCfynmLJlVU6YDmxNaME5OJt0RwHBnLnEwvcuS4zIUaL_jp-wyIsyLi5LsZm_yIYvJmK0Im3H8TV8u3Lq2i7ZyV64RSzF5983ovEk1kcpet6Q50UcNYs/w320-h234/TimeGrid%E2%84%A2%20WS%20Teams%20with%20%3C500%20road%20WPCT%20png.png" width="320" /></a></div>One last graphic on this--<b>one of our TimeGrid™ charts</b> (at left) showing the evolution of this phenomenon. As you might expect, most of these occurrences have happened since divisional play began, with an added acceleration during the Wild Card Era.<p></p><p>The greatest preponderance for this (thus far, at least) occurred during the 2000s, when it happened six times, including four in a row from 2005-08; it's also the only decade where two sub-.500 road record teams won the Series.</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-37050988903476357872023-12-12T10:06:00.000-08:002023-12-12T10:07:31.922-08:00OTHERNESS & THE OMINOUS IN OHTANI OMNIVOROUSNESS...<p>THANK God (or whatever "otherly" being you choose to employ...) that the <b>Great Ohtani Sweepstakes </b>farce is over...we call it "farce" because it seems abundantly clear that all of the other teams involved in the process were always on the outside looking in at a done deal with the Dodgers that, in truth, was mooted for many months. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiykKz_HwEWi7Lw4-EWFqAJb-ocdAbhg2KpDlypdL_rjMOUDKUCeA6kWM0CwQK-FLkBmsAKaOgRJpuf6nN56A6KrbYZy4yfni5mFtYZVFwfkfrMSiGH3sccuOUb2r-ZY0rVms6RJNotWZxTabB_8TDVFCtVnPIhvepBwF-jdhyAcUTt6Ha2WGMo91twLbo/s1450/Screen%20Shot%202023-12-12%20at%2010.00.46%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="946" data-original-width="1450" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiykKz_HwEWi7Lw4-EWFqAJb-ocdAbhg2KpDlypdL_rjMOUDKUCeA6kWM0CwQK-FLkBmsAKaOgRJpuf6nN56A6KrbYZy4yfni5mFtYZVFwfkfrMSiGH3sccuOUb2r-ZY0rVms6RJNotWZxTabB_8TDVFCtVnPIhvepBwF-jdhyAcUTt6Ha2WGMo91twLbo/w640-h416/Screen%20Shot%202023-12-12%20at%2010.00.46%20AM.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>As a left-coast denizen, BBB is cheered by the notion that the East Coast media will continue to have to genuflect in a "pacific direction" for as long as Ohtani is the "Great Other" in all the dimensions that he's come to embody for baseball and for the roiling rodomontade that is American culture in the 2020s, the most repercussive decade in America since the 1960s and the 1850s. </p><p>We are not particularly sanguine about the Dodger deal and its overall outcome, however. It's clear that the LA brain trust is looking to create the Greatest Team Money Can Buy (GTMCB), an endeavor as unwieldy as its acronym is unpronounceable. Ohtani's pent-up desire for "world domination" (aka a World Series win) has created a bowling alley worth of lanes for the Dodgers to "de-tax and spend" in pursuit of a lineup that should not only win 120 games but also manage not to slip on that bar of soap in the "October shower" that has mostly drowned their hopes since 2017.</p><p>Brilliant (and lucky) trading and painstaking farm system development used to be the way that teams became competitive over a long period; that model still is viable, but the Dodgers are attempting to turn the clock back to the late 90s and be a left-coast version of the "Evil Empire." Their actions may rouse the sleeping dotards in the Bronx to respond in kind, as they've already begun to do with their acquisition of <b>Juan Soto</b>.</p><p>The impossibly chipper and sadly doomed <b>Sarah Langs</b> gave us a great stat that reflects the danger involved in stockpiling seeming insurmountable concentrations of talent, however. She mentions that fact that the 2024 Dodgers will have players who finished 1-2-3 in MVP voting from the previous year (Ohtani #1 in AL, <b>Mookie Betts</b> and <b>Freddie Freeman</b> #2 and #3 in the NL). And, indefatigable researcher that she is, she also notes that four other teams had such a situation going for them previously. </p><p>Those teams: 2004 Yankees, 1967 Orioles, 1960 White Sox, 1942 Dodgers.</p><p>What Langs fails to note, however, is that while all of these teams were in the World Series during the previous year (only the 1966 O's actually won the World Series), <b><u>none of these teams made it to the World Series in the years shown above</u></b>.</p><p>The 2024 Dodgers would be the first of such teams to do so--assuming that they can. </p><p>But most of us know, however, what happens when you "assume."</p><p>What we have here is a variant of the "unstoppable force" (the Dodger brain trust's pursuit of glory via creative financing and <i>hubris</i>) and "immovable object" (the odd wrinkles in the fabric of the game as played on the field) that will collide head-on next year. There is an ominous undercurrent at work here, a fault line that is waiting to emerge--will it manifest itself and foil the aspirations of the would-be empire builders? Or will the game's variant of the teetering concept of "no one is above the law" fall in the dominoes threatening the degraded form of democracy that still hangs by a thread here in the "land of the free"...? And who of us will be "happy" with whichever outcome prevails?</p><p>Stay tuned...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-74859642983973002682023-11-29T11:32:00.000-08:002024-01-06T10:00:00.397-08:002024 HALL OF FAME BALLOT: TEN (MINUS TWO)<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsRAmd4rTzIk7RpUwOdegT-7qFPbo7Bkyb37B69aAvEAd6i3Z5vplieAoFSnMJFodCsvpNglmwvFEjNlszqv5SHDjmESTSpkdDHCsPUtSKo_eUdG63Mbmc-7AGrCoKGMsc4ANrFtOf-XnlX8t1shrUiHHAUazXOx0TI4MSlrKyUlI5J-kTWVl7idTshnM/s5165/septiemejure-blier-trickshot.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3876" data-original-width="5165" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsRAmd4rTzIk7RpUwOdegT-7qFPbo7Bkyb37B69aAvEAd6i3Z5vplieAoFSnMJFodCsvpNglmwvFEjNlszqv5SHDjmESTSpkdDHCsPUtSKo_eUdG63Mbmc-7AGrCoKGMsc4ANrFtOf-XnlX8t1shrUiHHAUazXOx0TI4MSlrKyUlI5J-kTWVl7idTshnM/w432-h324/septiemejure-blier-trickshot.jpg" width="432" /></a></div>IT was a <i>very</i> hectic non-baseball month here once the "final fizzle" came and went like a leaky balloon: we've spent much time on our non-baseball book and the now-ongoing French noir festival (capped by the anguish of <b>Bernard Blier</b> as he stares into a slowly-evolving abyss in THE SEVENTH JUROR, which plays on December 4 as the last salvo in this year's lucky thirteen shots in the dark: should you be interesting in learning more, <b><a href="https://roxie.com/film/witness-in-the-city-the-seventh-juror/" target="_blank">go here</a></b>).<br /><p></p><p>We did notice, however, that there are rumblings underway about the upcoming Hall of Fame election: ballots are out to all of those "eligible voters" (may several of them rest in peace...) and the results, such as they will prove to be, will be announced on January 23rd. Two high-profile candidates (<b>Adrian Beltre</b> and <b>Joe Mauer</b>) will make their first appearance on the ballot: we'll discuss their respective chances for induction shortly.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxMYxDKll6WSUoy7CpwaqV_c7hnOuIdd78qZ5c43x7GeVXQsZMLs1YzyoOVwB320ikDZ974aaU8LRywOZ999Wrpf_L2THsqg8h3nMmZWIDCj7xDJiTCF9cVzlv5SO1Imu_as_A99hw1vgFl_dVn4bqRZXqEW36EdksfdfQogQo_fb0usAx7u6PGZ8_PcU/s668/IMG_7492.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxMYxDKll6WSUoy7CpwaqV_c7hnOuIdd78qZ5c43x7GeVXQsZMLs1YzyoOVwB320ikDZ974aaU8LRywOZ999Wrpf_L2THsqg8h3nMmZWIDCj7xDJiTCF9cVzlv5SO1Imu_as_A99hw1vgFl_dVn4bqRZXqEW36EdksfdfQogQo_fb0usAx7u6PGZ8_PcU/w379-h400/IMG_7492.jpg" width="379" /></a></div>At the social media swamp formerly known as Twitter, the HOF Tracker crew posted a ballot sure to provoke widespread derision, as it contains only two selections from the (mercifully anonymous) voter--who is nothing if not "up to date," since he/she has voted only for the two "hot-shot" new candidates. <p></p><p></p>Since we know that folks these days want their information compressed (folded, spindled, etc.), we seized upon this opportunity to use the image to convey our picks--if the BBWAA was reckless enough to grant us a vote, that is. <p></p><p>Note that we are indeed voting for Beltre and Mauer, who represent high-quality players at positions which remain under-represented in Cooperstown. </p><p>We are also not voting again this year for either <b>Carlos Beltran</b> and <b>Andruw Jones</b>. The former is, in our estimation, a worthy candidate, but we're voting tactically here, preferring to send votes to <b>Bobby Abreu</b>, whose case is (in our minds at least) at least as deserving and who is not drawing the type of support he warrants. We can only hope for a stall in the "quant quackery" driving the voting surge for Jones, who is to the "silly saberist" cabal what <b>Jack Morris</b> was to the dying curmudgeons of the old BBWAA. Morris was subsequently shoved into the Hall via the side door, and that should also be the case for Jones as well. </p><p>Meanwhile, three far more deserving candidates--<b>Alex Rodriguez</b>, <b>Gary Sheffield</b> and <b>Manny Ramirez</b>--will continue to struggle on the thorny vine of non-objective voter behavior, with Sheffield needing a serious boost in his final year on the ballot to make it in via the front door. </p><p>We continue to cast votes for <b>Todd Helton</b> and <b>Billy Wagner</b>, hoping that both of them will get over the line in January, after which we suspect they'll accompany Beltre to the dais during 2024's induction ceremony. We expect Mauer to come up a bit short in his first time on the ballot, but we figure he'll likely make it in either 2025 or 2026. </p><p>Folks might raise eyebrows over a pick for <b>Andy Pettitte</b>, but this is a solid choice when we consider that this is someone who pitched much of his career in an era of heightened offense. </p><p>And finally, our tenth pick is another first-timer on the ballot, <b>Chase Utley</b>, who needs votes to stay in contention over the ten-year ballot period. Utley stands in for fellows like <b>Lou Whitaker</b>, <b>Bobby Grich</b>, <b>Larry Doyle</b> and <b>Jeff Kent</b>, all of whom should be in the Hall of Fame but aren't. We figure he'll get 20-25% of the vote this time, and then the question will be if some interest group decides to turn their neon crowdsourcing shenanigans loose for him--in this case, such tactics would be fully warranted.</p><p>SO there you have it. We have fifty-six days to wait for the official results, but we'll do what we can in that time frame to distract you...stay tuned.</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-31682310408014775462023-11-02T16:02:00.003-07:002023-11-03T14:46:10.007-07:00SNAKES RATTLED, FALL INTO 5-GAME WORLD SERIES GHETTO<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p></p><p>AN unorthodox World Series featuring two Wild Card teams began with great promise in Texas last week, with the Rangers and the Diamondbacks splitting two games with intriguingly different tonalities and setting up what appeared to be a compelling "punch-counterpunch" rhythm. </p><p>But then the teams moved to Arizona, and that scenario swiftly fell apart, with the Diamondbacks' pesky offense suddenly sputtering in Game Three, followed by a catastrophic "bullpen game" whose 11-7 score was lucky only for the Rangers, and then...</p>AND then a Game Five where the Snakes were clearly rattled by their inability to score anyone despite five consecutive innings in which they had runners in scoring position. Their ace starter <b>Zac Gallen</b> was pitching a no-hitter, but Arizona's inability to take control of the game cast a pall over the proceedings that swiftly took on inevitable dimensions. The Rangers, working on a remarkable road winning streak, finally broke through against Gallen in the seventh, and the hissing sound that had become progressively more audible was not from the D-backs (no "snaking" back into the game forthcoming) but instead the sound of air leaking out of any and all receptacles--tires, balloons, and several orifices (not) to be named later.<br /><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ6eZQSbVCa-CXk5i1mu1DNT98UjIEa4GWkbssXzPVp838mA9llzYyk-_DuLP7KJodJ08YY9rKI0z9HXxLAUaR6iFJ6dOfLNcrOcQXwvCyCG-EOq8ZhykjOHb3QfU8pAA8Of9K74DPDQ_aIEf0OcldGSUbEdZrBac0szMNOL9dycnj22EOjs3svC7sB3Y/s1954/5-game%20WS%20in%20MLB%20rev2%20png.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1954" data-original-width="904" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ6eZQSbVCa-CXk5i1mu1DNT98UjIEa4GWkbssXzPVp838mA9llzYyk-_DuLP7KJodJ08YY9rKI0z9HXxLAUaR6iFJ6dOfLNcrOcQXwvCyCG-EOq8ZhykjOHb3QfU8pAA8Of9K74DPDQ_aIEf0OcldGSUbEdZrBac0szMNOL9dycnj22EOjs3svC7sB3Y/w294-h640/5-game%20WS%20in%20MLB%20rev2%20png.png" width="294" /></a>Snakes' closer <b>Paul Sewald</b>, acquired in mid-season to reinvent the top end of the Arizona bullpen, delivered the <i>coup de grace</i> when he allowed four runs in the ninth, dooming the D-backs to a place in the lower depths of World Series history: the ghetto of the five-game series. </p><p>IT is now an architectural archipelago with twenty-seven separate buildings, housing 135 games in all--108 of which were won by the World Champions, and only 27 by the D-back's luckless brethren--exactly one win apiece for 27 teams who simply fell on their swords. </p><p>Very few five-game series are memorable, unless they are upsets: the ones that qualify include those played in 1969 (Mets over Orioles), 1988 (Dodgers over A's), and arguably 1942 (up and coming Cardinal dynasty shocks the Yankee dynasty). </p><p>The sense of deflation that occurs in a five-game series can be seen in the results when we quantify wins/losses on a game-by-game basis. Simply put, an event horizon just clicks into place in Game Four which pushes things inexorably in the direction of the winning team. The aggregate record in Games Four & Five of a five-game series is as starkly dominating as you can get without an outright sweep: 54 wins for the eventual champ, vs. just three for the eventual chump.</p><p>THERE are some mildly interesting sub-patterns that emerge in the constricted world of the five-game series, which we'll briefly examine. The Snakes' pattern (splitting on the road, swept at home) has happened only three times previously, all of them involving the Yankees as the winning team (1941, downing the Dodgers; 1949, rinsing and repeating with Brooklyn; and 1961, ripping the Reds a new one in their home park). </p><p>Another dramatic pattern--drop the first game and win four straight--has also happened only four times: in 1915 (Red Sox over Phillies), 1942 (Cards over the Yankees), 1969 (Mets shock the O's and the world), and 1983 (O's take to the Phillies). </p><p>Rarer still is the "win first three, drop Game Four, win Game Five" scenario--shared only by the 1910 Philadelphia A's, the 1937 Yankees, and the 1970 Orioles. </p><p>Nine teams have won the first two games, lost the third, and won the last two--we'll let you pick those out for yourself from the table above. </p><p>BUT these sub-patterns don't really deflect us from the fact that the five-game World Series is just a collection point for an escalating (and simultaneously deflating) sense of lost opportunity. The teams that win and their fan base are, of course, extremely happy, but years later they're likely to have a much fuzzier sense of how and why their teams won. That's because the win came a bit too easily: the sense of competition has been stunted, leaving a mental wasteland that is inextricably intertwined with the desiccated landscape of the "five-game ghetto."</p><p>It's been five years since the most recent five-game series; the longest span of time between such series is thirteen years (1916 to 1929). That sounds about right: let's cross fingers that we don't see another one until at least 2036...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-3678800704157478592023-10-27T13:07:00.000-07:002023-10-27T13:07:41.335-07:00DISTRIBUTION OF POST-SEASON RESULTS: ISOLATING THE "CRAPSHOOT"...<p>SO you've heard the complaints this year about the playoff system going off the rails because many of the teams with more wins than their post-season competitors wound up losing (raise your hands as we call your names: Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays). </p><p>And you've heard the countervailing comments that have been in force for many years before the further "wilding" of the Wild Card team had produced a general feeling of chaos matching what many feel about the world at large. Namely: "the playoffs are a crapshoot." (<b>Joe Sheehan</b>, crusty Baseball Prospectus renegade, is especially vehement--and numbingly repetitive--with respect to this mantra.)</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwuhrY8lCUCn1i8cWKORFEdPV0bzHqvr8ytOgkc0vLdzGCe8frquJFivhP4k18TUSLbcoBNlCZRqc90U6NioErp577SuZ2IMVOEwUC_HOYlmm3K72usP8vsUU0c2YSdssWNC1Wfnr_XCoc14lwcnq1L2HlboxYlIhduSXCshEbdRPKLeP_VZDaEnrXCwg/s2516/Post-Season%20Result%20Distribution%20png.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2516" data-original-width="1408" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwuhrY8lCUCn1i8cWKORFEdPV0bzHqvr8ytOgkc0vLdzGCe8frquJFivhP4k18TUSLbcoBNlCZRqc90U6NioErp577SuZ2IMVOEwUC_HOYlmm3K72usP8vsUU0c2YSdssWNC1Wfnr_XCoc14lwcnq1L2HlboxYlIhduSXCshEbdRPKLeP_VZDaEnrXCwg/w356-h640/Post-Season%20Result%20Distribution%20png.png" width="356" /></a></div>WHAT's missing in all of this, of course, is some kind of empirical data with which to actually assess the situation. (A condition that is shocking but not surprising in the still-blinkered and more-than-occasionally embedded world of baseball media.)<br /><p></p><p>So--as is usually the case--here we are, in Atlas mode, carrying the worldly weight of such tasks squarely on our shoulders...and providing some answers never seen before. Let's get to it...</p><p>FIRST, note the summary total (for all post-season games of all types, since the invention of the World Series in 1903). It shows that teams with better records than their opponents (column marked "B") only hold a slightly better than 50% success rate. That percentage was higher in the "pennant era" (1903-68) and the first era of division play, which we call "the championship series era" (1969-93), but has dropped since.</p><p>Note that since 2000 this percentage is less than 50% (all such occurrences on this distribution table are shaded in blue).</p><p>WE then go on to break down the World Series by length of games. Note that as the number of games in the World Series increases, the likelihood of the team with the better record being the winner declines (from 65.5% in sweeps to just 43.3% in seven-gamers). But note also that <u>this trend is reversing itself for seven-game series since 1995</u>, which kicked off what we call "the wild card era."</p><p>SWEEPS are where the better teams do best at holding their own (with one exception, that we'll look at it later). The World Series sweeps (4/0), now somewhat mixed in with ALCS/NLCS data, and the old CS format and Division series sweeps (3/0) yield an aggregate success rate for 71% for teams with the better won-loss record. </p><p>When we get into the Division Series' 3/1 and 3/2 subgroups, we see a stark decline: the 3/1 series are only 50/50 for the better team, and the 3/2 series, fueled dramatically by the changed dynamics in the "wild card" era, have been on an excoriating run against the better teams, who've won barely one-fourth of those series since 1995. <u>This</u> is the hidden story of how "the playoffs [became] a crapshoot."</p><p>And similarly, in the best-of-3 series (the variants of the more recent "wild card era" approach), the "sweeps" (the 2/0 series results) have thus far pushed against the team with the better record. In the old "one and done" variant of this approach, you can see that the results when broken out in the three categories--better (B), the same (E), and worse (W)--are virtually random.</p><p>All of these shorter series are currently running against better teams, who've won only forty percent of the "one and done" and "best of three" series. </p><p>SO this is the structural anatomy of the post-season, and how it's changed as the post-season itself has changed. How this might look in twenty years absent any better system (and readers here know by now that we have several of those, including a new one that we'll discuss here after the World Series) is really anyone's guess, but there's no reason not to think that it will remain reasonably similar to what we see here.</p><p>It can be argued that we should break these categories (B/W) into smaller units that show the range of difference; while the sample would be smaller, it might provide some additional nuance. It can also be argued that we should use Pythagorean Winning Percentage for this breakout--and if that data were readily available, we'd do so...but none of the reference sites has seen fit to compile this in an easily accessible framework, and until they do so, we are constrained by time issues from doing so. (If someone provides it to us, however...)</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-31867982348827037332023-10-26T09:33:00.005-07:002023-10-26T09:33:59.425-07:0021ST CENTURY POST-SEASON STANDINGS...<p>YOU may not have seen the data posted below...we'd not thought to retrieve it from the trusty folks at Forman et soeur, but the light bulb finally flickered a bit and managed to stay on. </p><p>It's a summary display form that's probably new to most of you, but don't let it throw you off.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0mlaK9qN3dPIkmQl1fIOOxqmrPbgC_IicDcE74KyrEC-8onI8Eo4mIEl9bYlqrzdY0fcDJzC0Rl5jxoWv28a8Mu724wA-_Wt8Md2kIvbg280DNbLgzxxnHUMP1jKJJK-uOdag94uxScfZ4zJdegGTDQ_44iw_-n1p1Sd1BwG8uJbTUHYD3HvJN6hMULE/s2920/21st%20century%20post-season%20standings%20pre-23%20WS%20png.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1737" data-original-width="2920" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0mlaK9qN3dPIkmQl1fIOOxqmrPbgC_IicDcE74KyrEC-8onI8Eo4mIEl9bYlqrzdY0fcDJzC0Rl5jxoWv28a8Mu724wA-_Wt8Md2kIvbg280DNbLgzxxnHUMP1jKJJK-uOdag94uxScfZ4zJdegGTDQ_44iw_-n1p1Sd1BwG8uJbTUHYD3HvJN6hMULE/w640-h380/21st%20century%20post-season%20standings%20pre-23%20WS%20png.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Note that this covers the 21st century only (just in case you're not ready the titles of the posts!) all the way up to this year's Championship series.</p><p>Interestingly, the Phillies are still the team with the best overall WPCT amongst teams with a sizable number of post-season games. They're slightly ahead of the Giants and Red Sox, the two franchises with the most World Series wins since 2000. The media has noted the long post-season losing streak of the Minnesota Twins, but we're not aware of anyone posting their overall record, which might actually be more astonishing....</p><p>The Yankees have still played in the most post-season games (161), but haven't had much to show for it since 2009. Behind them are the Cardinals (142), Astros (130), and Dodgers (126). </p><p>The Royals remain the great outlier, destroying literally everything in their path whenever they manage to make the post-season, but mostly operating as baseball's resident iceberg. Still, they're not the franchise with the fewest post-season games since 2000: that would be the Pirates (8), followed by the Reds (11), Orioles (17), Rockies (20), Mariners (24), Padres (25), and White Sox (26). </p><p>We added a few basic rate stats to add a little more spice to things. Note that the Rays are the homer-ingest team by the HR/G measure, but also note that it's not done them much good (no World Series win, and a very middling .438 post-season WPCT). </p><p>HR/G for post-season games since 2000 (1.12) remind us that "launch angle" was with us even before it was a "thing"... but note that the Giants did manage to buck the trend, winning three titles with significantly lower-than-average HR/G rates. (Much of the reason for that would be more evident if we were to run these standings again, but with pitching data--something we may just do after the World Series.)</p><p>Both of this year's participants in the World Series have burnished their post-season records sufficiently with their respective run-ups to the Fall Classic to currently be .500+ for their relatively limited number of playoff games (54 for the Rangers, 48 for the Diamondbacks). Odds are high that they'll both still be over .500 after the series, unless someone gets hot and sweeps the other one. </p><p>But let's kibosh that thought and root for a seven-game series, shall we? While the game still has many problems to overcome, it's still far worse when there are no games at all. Let's savor what remains...</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-61975119414384830722023-10-21T17:05:00.001-07:002023-10-22T12:53:15.822-07:00MONTHLY PITCHING DATA SPECIAL EDITION: STRENGTH/WEAKNESS INDICATORS FOR POST-SEASON TEAMS<p>WE'll publish the full season's worth of the monthly team pitching performance data (for both starters and relievers) after the World Series. A smidge of it will appear in this special report, where we look at the best team months for starters and the worst team months for relievers.</p><p>Some of this is prompted by the dogged distortions still being compiled by dear old John Clay Davenport, the original mastermind of the Baseball Prospectus "statitude adjustment cadre" (as we used to call it back in the day of BBBA). We recall being temporarily impressed with Davenport's efforts, but a closer look confirmed that it was just another form of reverse engineering that had no added value to our understanding--a feature that, for the most part, has continued in the field of "neo-sabermetrics" as practiced from ca. 1995-2005, then codified with new ideological fervor once these folks had penetrated into the mainstream, and finally overbaked thanks to the monomaniacal brigade marching to the chowdery chiliasms of the Tango Love Pie™.</p><p>In this instance, Davenport was quoted by Joe the P. for his eye-rolling "third order standings," which, in this instance, purported to tell us that Clay's centripetal engineering of the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) contained heretofore hidden insight that the Texas Rangers were the second best team in the AL and really should have won 97 games.</p><p>As is almost always the case with Clay, this sounds very impressive until you realize that the original PWP projected the Rangers to win 96 games. But this didn't stop Joe from giving it a ham-fisted place of prominence in his attempt to explain why the Rangers were doing so well in the playoffs, while teams with more actual wins (and fewer "projected" wins) were not.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhif_ETrFLtPEtJ6e4UIUtP76yieal2Odt6jBlKc9GHayyvLGD4J23RTNOKCXyNxfK6s5NJGiTBxd_HeOcNVJoSF82uxkoLQWlTVZ7oPC_y2TqN8McBvp3T3tyZzjtohbT6EKBAxeWCg5sh35Zg9OuIuJSzkFKM-HAzC258jmfcjsgo5MWScffhl4-WjOI/s1070/Top%20SP%20Months%20AL%202023%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1004" data-original-width="1070" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhif_ETrFLtPEtJ6e4UIUtP76yieal2Odt6jBlKc9GHayyvLGD4J23RTNOKCXyNxfK6s5NJGiTBxd_HeOcNVJoSF82uxkoLQWlTVZ7oPC_y2TqN8McBvp3T3tyZzjtohbT6EKBAxeWCg5sh35Zg9OuIuJSzkFKM-HAzC258jmfcjsgo5MWScffhl4-WjOI/s320/Top%20SP%20Months%20AL%202023%20png.png" width="320" /></a></div>IT was all "expiration date" glibberish that happens in the baseball media's silly season, but it made us realize that our monthly data--customarily derided by the lock-jawed lock-steppers in the (post)-neosabe world, could give us some actual insight into potential vulnerabilities that might crop up in the short-series mode that defines (and often makes strange) the post-season.<p></p><p>AND so we present the best starting pitching months based on the stat breakouts collated from <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com">Forman et soeur's </a></b>team pitching splits data for 2023. First up is the AL data, which shows us that six playoff teams in the league--O's, Astros, Twins, Rays, Rangers and Jays--all had a least one month where their starters were collectively ten percent better than the league OPS (as measured by OPS+, which here is annotated by bb-ref as sOPS+; remember that since it's pitchers we're examining here, the higher the OPS+ the worse the pitching performance is). </p><p>Oddly, the best team month occurring in the AL in 2023 is the one turned by the Detroit Tigers' starters in September. That could be a harbinger of things to come in 2024, or not--one of their main contributors, Edwin Rodriguez, is a free agent and is unlikely to stay with the Tigers. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2PwViHQKSefcBjiGy8BMrAsBy1ll6Wrlfgy4KDWC1wbvsHZZDRM8SI5MZaPBRW1X7TM72pLaW1LoppGukkqmXRtvx3uwTjI3nCVDe8jvHqxq0L3O2SoRpBamkpECJe66ehse9LHtulzxa5Wh6BaWZrCIHJBi6gQzDKCVdomb9_JkvWHp80vNU8XJQi1g/s1070/Top%20SP%20Months%20NL%202023%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="904" data-original-width="1070" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2PwViHQKSefcBjiGy8BMrAsBy1ll6Wrlfgy4KDWC1wbvsHZZDRM8SI5MZaPBRW1X7TM72pLaW1LoppGukkqmXRtvx3uwTjI3nCVDe8jvHqxq0L3O2SoRpBamkpECJe66ehse9LHtulzxa5Wh6BaWZrCIHJBi6gQzDKCVdomb9_JkvWHp80vNU8XJQi1g/s320/Top%20SP%20Months%20NL%202023%20png.png" width="320" /></a></div>The O's, Twins and Rangers had three "top SP months," while the Rays had two. The Rangers took out the Rays, the Twins took out the Jays, and then the Rangers took out the O's while the Astros--with only one top SP month on us list--eliminated the Twins. (Remember that the Rays were missing their top three SPs in the playoffs due to injury.)<br /><p></p><p>Overall top SP months produce close to a two-out-of-three WPCT for their teams (.656). The embattled Red Sox, who finished last in AL East, had the bad luck of having the only top SP month where the pitchers had a sub-.500 record.</p><p>NOW to the NL. Five playoff teams--Braves, Dodgers, Marlins, Brewers and Phillies--had at least one top SP month; the team with the most (Padres, with four) had spotty hitting and a surreal lack of success with their bullpen and missed the playoffs entirely. The Marlins and the Phillies had the best single months from their starters, but the Fish were missing several of those folk in the post-season and Philadelphia prevailed easily. The Brewers' SPs did not carry them in the post-season, and the Diamondbacks (no top SP months at all) pushed past them in the ultra-short Wild Card series. </p><p>The Dodgers, with only one top SP month all year, were also betrayed by their starters, and the Diamondbacks dispatched them as well. After frying the Fish, the Phillies then scalped the Braves (whose pitching was shakier than what its offense-driven 104-win season suggested) thanks to galvanic performances from their 1-2 punch of <b>Zack Wheeler</b> and <b>Aaron Nola</b> (and a widely ballyhooed bullpen ambush in Game One).</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_DkokChLTBLUBt6lvrqcKFkZt-7weUbOELW3wcnALdig-G96DSY83CFgDxpJ-1uG_o0rbzBHC43327Xir3oYJ-UrVmJ40U0HZNDdqjTG2MXaSkuqKqGyJCFaeA9dWdYZV6nql6SCkUKqjYAUAuImFLmzUlgMTjE8JamyF9fXI6KXUnd0l8oQj0FA90OU/s1154/Worst%20RP%20Months%20AL%202023%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1154" data-original-width="1108" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_DkokChLTBLUBt6lvrqcKFkZt-7weUbOELW3wcnALdig-G96DSY83CFgDxpJ-1uG_o0rbzBHC43327Xir3oYJ-UrVmJ40U0HZNDdqjTG2MXaSkuqKqGyJCFaeA9dWdYZV6nql6SCkUKqjYAUAuImFLmzUlgMTjE8JamyF9fXI6KXUnd0l8oQj0FA90OU/s320/Worst%20RP%20Months%20AL%202023%20png.png" width="307" /></a></div>So weak/thin SP for the Braves and Dodgers masked by other compensating performances during the regular season spiraled out of control quickly in the post-season. <p></p><p>NEXT up: the worst relief months. Let's begin with the AL, where we'll see that the large majority of bad bullpen months are found amongst also-rans (seven of the ten teams shown here, with just half of the playoff teams--Astros, Rays and Rangers--represented. </p><p>And so the teams with the most vulnerable bullpens--Rangers (three bad months) and Astros (two bad months) managed to bypass that problem until they met for the right to be in the World Series. </p><p>Bad bullpen months don't always produce catastrophic won-loss results: all three playoff teams were at or above a .500 WPCT from their bullpen in those months where the performance was rough. Astros, Rays and Rangers relievers went 33-32 in those months--the sign of good offensive teams that can overcome bullpen meltdowns.. (But the also-rans combined for a 60-98 record from relievers in bad bullpen months.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGDprI5XlIhrMs6xWJhVbIEf7Jos6sVHw1AwwzifIHVIvKEMWqVRy1kpcXZC7oS4tCWPnhCMQp-sMHibdTlRLFvmEe38Ye6D9MDA9ntnxw05HryhpaCBiA1FQCJAUlr-B7uZIrFkuStu54zOZoIcpu9Cgb869MFkLTtcrzUM80kO7-eRHrFdYhCdVrziY/s1108/Worst%20RP%20Months%20NL%202023%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1104" data-original-width="1108" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGDprI5XlIhrMs6xWJhVbIEf7Jos6sVHw1AwwzifIHVIvKEMWqVRy1kpcXZC7oS4tCWPnhCMQp-sMHibdTlRLFvmEe38Ye6D9MDA9ntnxw05HryhpaCBiA1FQCJAUlr-B7uZIrFkuStu54zOZoIcpu9Cgb869MFkLTtcrzUM80kO7-eRHrFdYhCdVrziY/s320/Worst%20RP%20Months%20NL%202023%20png.png" width="320" /></a></div>Moving to the NL, things are more random in nature. We see five of the six playoff teams with at least one bad bullpen month (Diamondbacks, Braves, Rodgers, Marlins and Brewers. The Fish, who won a ton of one-run games and who had a PWP for the year under .500, did the high-wire act with two bad months that still managed to produced a 21-8 record from their relievers!<p></p><p>That anomaly helps to account for the fact that bad bullpen months show an aggregate WPCT for relievers at not that much under .500 (.474 to be exact).</p>Ironically, the Phillies, with <u>no</u> bad bullpen months, have started to struggle against the Diamondbacks in the Championship Series because several of their relievers have coughed up leads since the series moved to Arizona.<p></p><div>So in short series, starting pitching seems to track well with success, but even teams with a rock-solid bullpen can turn victory into defeat at a moment when it can be most costly--in a short series where one squandered game make all the difference. </div><div><br /></div><div>(That said, we're not quite ready to write off the Phillies. They will, no matter what, get to return home for at least a Game Six; they are very hard to beat at home. The Diamonbacks did pick up a solid closer in <b>Paul Sewald</b>, however, and their bullpen had its best month in September: so things look as though they could remain very unpredictable as we lurch our way to the Fall Classic. Stay tuned...</div>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-52617803764153097862023-10-09T15:01:00.002-07:002023-10-09T15:17:38.851-07:00KERSHAW'S LESS-THAN-AUGUST OCTOBER COMPANY<p>The word on everyone's lips after watching the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game Saturday evening: Ouch. </p><p>Prescriptive Hall of Famer <b>Clayton Kershaw</b> came out throwing clay pigeons instead of pills, and seven batters later he found himself being wrapped in gauze in the dugout. He did manage to get one batter out, but the other six Arizona batters crossed the plate: it was a macabre continuation of the intermittent horror movie that has so often taken over when Kershaw--so dominant in the regular season--tiptoes into the playoffs.</p><p>We're not here to pile on, despite what some might be expecting. We'll just say that the ways of kryptonite are more mysterious than any of us can fathom. Instead, we provide solace and something akin to comfort by placing Kershaw's unfortunate meltdown in historical context.</p><p>You are invited to feast (or shield) your eyes from the chart below, which lists (with thanks, as usual, to <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com">Forman et soeur</a></b>) <u>all 39 post-season starts in which the pitcher recorded either no outs or one out</u>...</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKLejdbgbB3gzNmuoblIFRcsHe8PHzbESVDtEJ8ffkGfn7mGAJAySwEaO3HBLYYPQ3EGqKEvcIGAUKaBmb-SNrCaMrh8ewXiS1KPX0zIwnjlQj5DRcuKm4f0Sr8dO56YfZ3edz2lfJTkkLEvRQNtmGd6ErkqeaGXJyD8fu_kUPA5c4SWRnUzJWGVJUP5c/s2508/No%20Out%20&%20One%20Out%20Post-Season%20GS%20png.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2004" data-original-width="2508" height="510" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKLejdbgbB3gzNmuoblIFRcsHe8PHzbESVDtEJ8ffkGfn7mGAJAySwEaO3HBLYYPQ3EGqKEvcIGAUKaBmb-SNrCaMrh8ewXiS1KPX0zIwnjlQj5DRcuKm4f0Sr8dO56YfZ3edz2lfJTkkLEvRQNtmGd6ErkqeaGXJyD8fu_kUPA5c4SWRnUzJWGVJUP5c/w640-h510/No%20Out%20&%20One%20Out%20Post-Season%20GS%20png.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>You may be surprised to discover that the record of the teams whose pitchers made such quick and unceremonious exits isn't <i>quite</i> as catastrophic as one would expect: 10-29, which is just as respectable as the 1962 New York Mets. (So: horrible, but not unmentionable.)</p><p>Pitchers in the 21st century with such ultra-short starts (eleven in all) are shown in red type.</p><p>There are some extremely short starts here, and it's possible that some enterprising expert on the post-season has documented why such pitchers as <b>Curly Ogden</b>, <b>Wade Miley</b>, <b>John Thomson</b> and <b>Johnny Cueto</b> were such spectacular first-inning blips. (Injury is, of course, the most likely answer.)</p><p>As you might have suspected, there are no other Hall of Fame pitchers on the list aside from Kershaw. Arguments could be made on behalf of <b>Dwight Gooden</b> having possessed Hall of Fame-level talent, but Gooden's early flameout in the 1998 ALDS occurred long past the time when folks talked about him in hushed tones.</p><p>The worst first-inning performance that a team was able to overcome and win the game anyway: the Pirates' <b>Vic Aldridge</b>, in Game Seven of the 1925 World Series. </p><p>The worst start from an ethical standpoint: <b>Lefty Williams'</b> infamous tank job in Game Eight of the haunted 1919 World Series.</p><p>The only time that there were two such first-inning flameouts in the same World Series happened in 1960, when the Yankees' <b>Art Ditmar</b> and the Pirates' <b>Vinegar Bend Mizell</b> swapped stinkeroos in the early stages of one of the most wild & woolly Fall Classics ever. </p><p>[ODD NOTE: Bill James' Game Score method, shown in the second-from-left column, goes a bit goofy with such short starts. Recall that it starts off with a score of 50 and moves up and down from there: it just doesn't get enough data to move the needle as far as we might think. Let's note, however, that Kershaw's score--14, which should probably be translated to -36 for the purposes of its actual game impact--is the worst out of all the 39 "brief encounters" shown here.]</p><p>Let's close with some small amount of solace for Kershaw. His six runs allowed in a third of an inning was not the absolute worst performance of its kind in the post-season. In 2019,<b> Mike Foltynewicz</b> and <b>Dakota Hudson</b> each allowed seven runs in the same brief but brutal span. In their cases, however, there were errors behind them that contributed to their early demise.</p><p>Will we see another of these meltdowns in the current post-season? As we just saw, there were two in 2019, and two last year (<b>Aaron Civale</b> and <b>Mike Clevinger</b>). Remember, the post-season is still just getting underway...stay tuned.</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-36608935174195598612023-10-05T17:09:00.004-07:002023-10-06T10:48:17.799-07:00SWEEPS SWEEP AWAY MEDIA BRAIN CELLS...<p>THE silly season is upon us again:<u> the dopey, overwrought, amped-up post-season</u> as brought to you by folks who are (heh, heh...) supposed to know better. </p><p>It only took two days for the media to whip itself into "mid-season post-season form," getting all fluttery about the cluster of two-game sweeps in the four best-of-three series that came, saw, and conquered the vanquished before the folks who blather at you for a living could get their wind machines up to eighty percent capacity...</p><p>Of course, right in the middle of all this, with blather left over from his ceaseless, tedious, tiresome, tendentious (...) plugging of his new book, was <b>Joe the P</b>., making large out of small (sometimes a good thing, but rarely in his hands...). Ol' Poser Joe was mesmerized by the collapse of the Rays and the Brewers--as if these teams haven't shown some propensity for quick exits in the post-season in their recent appearances. (You forgot to make those windmill noises when you look things up, Joe baby: you were too busy hyperventilating.)</p><p>Likewise for the Toronto Blue Jays, who have made a career of late out of underperforming--why the heck wouldn't they extend such a tradition into the post-season? </p><p>Let's make large out of small just like the paid idiots...during the regular season, the Rays had trouble with the Rangers, losing four of six from them. Add to the fact that the Rays were missing their two best starting pitchers and their starting middle infield, and one could figure that they might be vulnerable in such a situation. The irony here, not reported on in the media--all too busy hyperventilating, natch)--is that the Rangers' #3 and #4 starting pitcher pickups in terms of name and reputation--<b>Jordan Montgomery</b> and <b>Nathan Eovaldi</b>--are the ones who throttled the Rays, not <b>Jacob deGrom</b> and <b>Max Scherzer</b>. (And let's be honest--a best of three series is a lousy idea to begin with--teams deserve a bit more latitude than that after churning away for six months.)</p><p>Likewise with the Brewers, who lost four of six from the Diamondbacks. The Jays split six games with the Twins--but, just like the Rays, they left their bats elsewhere. </p><p>And the Marlins were fishy from the get-go, with their bizarre success in one-run games and long possum-play in the middle of the season. Even though they'd held their own against the Phillies during the regular season, the world of baseball was hardly surprised when the Fish were washed up on the shores of the Delaware River.</p><p>SO what else is behind the rejoinder in our title, anyway? Just how out of touch with the nuances of the post-season are these guys (and gals), anyway? Let us count the ways for you...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYneC4lEX9XYdzNRKLq2VmNrxre-ss3wMs2m94-pqRrvySfHcdnBXP-yaBlY-pAsUIG21PHd0Gr9phjTotXQ22tpcwxC137PpVrkkNqoZbI63Fv9bN79J6Ahi1cZAuzI24UVrh6wwRkxT6-Jh-RjS-7DkYxFQnnow_gdW-mj-hQVQT3Sw9lgOqboEp98s/s612/Post-Season%20Sweep%20Pcts%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="204" data-original-width="612" height="107" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYneC4lEX9XYdzNRKLq2VmNrxre-ss3wMs2m94-pqRrvySfHcdnBXP-yaBlY-pAsUIG21PHd0Gr9phjTotXQ22tpcwxC137PpVrkkNqoZbI63Fv9bN79J6Ahi1cZAuzI24UVrh6wwRkxT6-Jh-RjS-7DkYxFQnnow_gdW-mj-hQVQT3Sw9lgOqboEp98s/s320/Post-Season%20Sweep%20Pcts%20png.png" width="320" /></a></div>First, no one in blowhard media mode bothered to research the history of the post-season to see just how prevalent sweeps actually are. Here, of course, we abhor a vacuum just as much as the next guy (and gal), but we actually do something about it. And so the chart at right tells you what you need to know about three-game sweeps in the pre-World Series portion of the post-season. As you can see, three-game post-season sweeps were fairly common in the early years of divisional play (36%).<p></p><p>THEN there was a caesura (you can call it a "gap," we don't mind...) for a little while when baseball decided to make all of the post-season series into best-of-7 affairs. That lasted until 1995, when the three-division format finally made it into a post-season (thanks so much, <b>Budzilla</b>, for the travesty of 1994...) and another layer of post-season play was created. Sweeps started to decline percentage-wise as a result, and they became scarcer still once the winner-take-all wild card game was introduced in 2012.</p><p>So...baseball fans and media folk alike became subliminally conditioned to fewer three-game sweeps, and this is part of why the clustering we just witness has them <b>agog</b> (<i>yes, we've been waiting for a long time to drop that word into play here)...</i></p><p>EXCEPT--we've left out something...something significant that destroys, obliterates, mutilates (even spindles...) that explanation. And what <i>is</i> that shiny, quivering piece of significance?</p><p>It's the fact that we've already had twelve best-of-three post-season series during this decade. We had eight of them in the chaos of the 2020 (post-)season: perhaps all of that overkill just collectively wiped away the media's normally elephantine memory banks. <i>For out of those eight best-of-three series, <u>six</u> of them were two-game sweeps.</i></p><p>And it was likewise last year, during the first implementation of this funky new format. There were <b>four</b> best-of-three series played this time last year (i.e., 2022)--and <i><u>three</u> of those were two-game sweeps</i>.</p><p>OK, kiddies, let's add that up, shall we? We've had <u>twelve</u> best-of-three post-series, and <b>nine</b> of them were two-game sweeps--<u>that's <b>75%</b> of them</u> for those of you playing along at home--and the pundits are (yes...) agog when we have four such two-game sweeps to start things off this year??</p><p>So now, let's add things up <u>again</u>, shall we? Now we've had a total of <u>sixteen</u> best-of-three post-game series, of which <u>thirteen</u> have resulted in sweeps. That's <b>81%</b>.</p><p>Why are these chuckleheads so <i>surprised</i>? Is it because they're chuckleheads? </p><p>Or are we just being too kind...we'll let you decide.</p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-69005256485907964412023-09-29T05:23:00.004-07:002023-09-29T07:53:26.885-07:00QMAX: WEIGHING IN ON WAINO<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtRmgTd_ee-pmCTSUE80mEm7C-E1TVOnlQzftcot1giOS6RjjvGtiszeVDLvPIJjtXb8PXRdo1SdY4D1GgXFiSZF-uOW6mIFCa4z9f5F0Ji4hpi-u24owlUc6dMXB-Qr0LfaGh16h6p2JZmVS7udCRSZN-r-u6ODEHRgtPnt0be9U3DEUkyIkx69wYr3s/s1600/5273-7883-original.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1067" data-original-width="1600" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtRmgTd_ee-pmCTSUE80mEm7C-E1TVOnlQzftcot1giOS6RjjvGtiszeVDLvPIJjtXb8PXRdo1SdY4D1GgXFiSZF-uOW6mIFCa4z9f5F0Ji4hpi-u24owlUc6dMXB-Qr0LfaGh16h6p2JZmVS7udCRSZN-r-u6ODEHRgtPnt0be9U3DEUkyIkx69wYr3s/w400-h266/5273-7883-original.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>St. Louis Cardinal mainstay <b>Adam Wainwright</b> survived a calamitous final season, bringing his win total to 200 with a miraculous near-return to form this past September 18th. Indications concerning his stuff--which had been harrowingly absent for yearly a calendar year--were so dire that he almost didn't make his scheduled start.<br /><p></p><p>Fortunately, all's well that ends well for one of the true "good guys" in the game, and a pitcher whose career interruptions have concealed his level of achievement. As we use the <b>Quality Matrix (QMAX)</b> to survey Waino's career in greater detail than has been done elsewhere, let's begin by noting a fact that has also been strangely overlooked with respect to his career.</p><p>What's that fact? Wainwright made three successful comebacks from significant injuries, ultimately returning to a level of excellence on each occasion--a feat that is remarkable even in this age of rampant, escalating arm injury (particularly to starting pitchers). He was fortunate to be more of a "pitcher" than a "thrower," even at an early age, which aided him in ways that aren't necessarily available to the more two-dimensional "flamethrower" types.</p><p>Let's get right into the data for Waino, using information gleaned from <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com">Forman et soeur</a></b> (and then augmented with a newly-revamped and upgraded QMAX):</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEY1WZqx7zMHlGa7znbqWdJOM-icXGqjWgXmIaYwGiTLgcASHEpp54BtJ4DmBiBmN7WHhUwIwn22qI5oGCEerSJgh9m7JaT49ZQdUsK-s_23MdnQCe8_TxztF4BkFqqYIkVOeSo-nkrWjkkButkFeR1lyRQzTNzUDq2AM58NL7K-fY2TzKaRxqyRiL20o/s2987/Wainwright%20QMAX%20overview.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1258" data-original-width="2987" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEY1WZqx7zMHlGa7znbqWdJOM-icXGqjWgXmIaYwGiTLgcASHEpp54BtJ4DmBiBmN7WHhUwIwn22qI5oGCEerSJgh9m7JaT49ZQdUsK-s_23MdnQCe8_TxztF4BkFqqYIkVOeSo-nkrWjkkButkFeR1lyRQzTNzUDq2AM58NL7K-fY2TzKaRxqyRiL20o/w640-h270/Wainwright%20QMAX%20overview.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>We are looking only at Waino's starts here, so you'll notice right off that his win total is not 200, it's 198 (the number of wins he achieved as a starter). Over at the right, shaded in yellow, you'll find the special BBB QMAX data, which includes a couple of stats you've probably never seen before (TB/H, or total bases per hit; and TB/IP, or total bases per inning pitched), both of which come into play to add precision to the calculation of the QMAX "S" score, which measures hit prevention.</p><p>Before we go further into those added nuances (which will explain some things about pitcher types that rarely if ever get taken into consideration...), let's note the gaps in Waino's career that are somewhat hidden in the above data. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWmWni1eIg5BzUpiqUBimvlJjpXQW3ckKpBAalT1s7MTqQirJ0ykZriDZxFD8UazxJQQ4bz1wVnyXesTuWL58-FFE3Z9p7km30wFed73Y_rXsddnmOODvsVlWmszCp40TYKoxNnXGAMKA_QXuwBxZHXFvvgaDqdk4MMdNtCBN7NuLOCOqMrvu98nJD2eY/s1462/Waino%20QMAX%202014.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1462" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWmWni1eIg5BzUpiqUBimvlJjpXQW3ckKpBAalT1s7MTqQirJ0ykZriDZxFD8UazxJQQ4bz1wVnyXesTuWL58-FFE3Z9p7km30wFed73Y_rXsddnmOODvsVlWmszCp40TYKoxNnXGAMKA_QXuwBxZHXFvvgaDqdk4MMdNtCBN7NuLOCOqMrvu98nJD2eY/w400-h180/Waino%20QMAX%202014.png" width="400" /></a></div>First, note that there's no line for 2011: that was his first year missed due to injury. It took a year for Waino to regain his form after that, but he led the Cardinals to the World Series in 2013 and had what might be his best overall season the following year.<br /><p></p><p>Then, another injury occurred in 2015--serious enough that many folks feared it would prevent Waino from returning at all. He was a lesser version of himself in 2016 and 2017: a good bit more hittable (with a sharp increase in both TB/H and TB/IP). 2018 began more promisingly, but it wasn't long before he was on the shelf again, which again left his career in doubt. </p><p>But Waino rehabbed well and made it back for 2019, where in the second half of the year he began to round into something resembling his 2009-2014 peak, reeling off a five-game winning streak in September. The delay in the 2020 season due to COVID seemed to have a salutary effect on him as well (except for an uptick in HRs allowed), and he finished that abbreviated year with his lowest ERA (and QMAX "S" score) since 2014.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhciPRmbUEAawnS8HMHMXhZlsNOde4aNA33Fxv3BhkyDFndCXLquGBWbbKvJ0tFqQTtG1hv6AJMtpjatAL2tXGLIemYJBuFzcGgc_4HDdbpfSG6JzTpepbExX-MeegawrjCZfuxBLtsZeajRzSYdN-aWHCnNBBC_-vWrm5uaY3uvToE5NivgyEPdLif4EQ/s1462/Waino%20QMAX%202021.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1462" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhciPRmbUEAawnS8HMHMXhZlsNOde4aNA33Fxv3BhkyDFndCXLquGBWbbKvJ0tFqQTtG1hv6AJMtpjatAL2tXGLIemYJBuFzcGgc_4HDdbpfSG6JzTpepbExX-MeegawrjCZfuxBLtsZeajRzSYdN-aWHCnNBBC_-vWrm5uaY3uvToE5NivgyEPdLif4EQ/w400-h180/Waino%20QMAX%202021.png" width="400" /></a></div>2021 and most of 2022 were more of the same, as the now-"elderly" Waino was almost as good as new at the age of 40. Prior to another physical setback in September 2022, he had the fifth best ERA+ over a three-year career span from ages 38-40 (124, behind two Hall of Famers--<b>Randy Johnson</b> and <b>John Smoltz</b>--and two other notable late bloomers, <b>Jamie Moyer</b> and <b>Dennis Martinez</b>).<p></p><p>THAT late-season setback in 2022 proved to be catastrophic for Waino--he would never pitch effectively again (save for the miracle game this past September 18th). In 2023--an agonizing season for both him and his team--he hit a wall in late June and lost ten games in a row, jeopardizing what had previously been a superb personal WPCT (sending it spiraling toward .600, a figure we'll return to a bit later). The Cards, committed to their long-time ace, and in a year where it was abundantly clear they were going nowhere, gamely pitched him game after game, in hopes that something--anything--would turn around. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh53ujy0iGE1Q7sxUyhOwql0bccB6ozP4Fw6YpNOlHvT5B4U_ay913EmL55y1um06q7FFy0YGY1ZPQClmWJK_SbcoCA-T-nEfqB37dsQb4wU4cZW_-eajxcy5xzWKXXWKn3iTJVDq4cMSKekijWcoQwMU9iU0SGNigkX4T8w2pEF34yU4fCLNnaQLNF0a8/s1462/Waino%20QMAX%20Sept%2022-Sept%2023.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1462" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh53ujy0iGE1Q7sxUyhOwql0bccB6ozP4Fw6YpNOlHvT5B4U_ay913EmL55y1um06q7FFy0YGY1ZPQClmWJK_SbcoCA-T-nEfqB37dsQb4wU4cZW_-eajxcy5xzWKXXWKn3iTJVDq4cMSKekijWcoQwMU9iU0SGNigkX4T8w2pEF34yU4fCLNnaQLNF0a8/w400-h180/Waino%20QMAX%20Sept%2022-Sept%2023.png" width="400" /></a></div>On August 17th, Waino actually pitched rather well--allowing just four hits over six innings. But the Cards' hitters didn't cooperate, deepening what would prove to be a pronounced second-half slump--and it proved to be his eighth straight loss. Eleven days later, he left the game in the seventh tied 0-0, but the bullpen allowed his baserunner to score for his tenth loss in a row. The two good to excellent performances that Waino willed into existence in September lowered his ERA to 7.40 for the year. (You can see the eerie consistency of his pitching from 9/22 to 9/23 in the first row of data in the master chart with green coloration: it's clear that there was nothing left in the tank.)<p></p><p>AND the contrast in the seasonal matrix charts just above also highlight the night-and-day difference in Waino's performance level. QMAX's "success square" (the green and yellow regions in the upper left of the matrix) is something that Waino hit about two-thirds of the time in his career: in '21, a fine year, he hit it three-quarters of the time. From September '22 on, he hit it only 15% of the time. In '21, he gave up more hits than innings pitched just seven times in 32 starts (about 22%); from September '22 on, he gave up more hits than innings pitched <i><u>twenty-two</u></i> times in 27 starts (about 81% of the time). That's about as deep a hole as you can dig and still be pitching in the big leagues.</p><p>All of which reminds us how quickly things can change in baseball--how slender the line can be between success and failure. </p><p>The matrix chart for Waino's last 27 starts gives us a sense of what "replacement level" starting pitching looks like while also demonstrating the performance nuances when we place them into the QMAX context. Those twenty-two starts where the "S" score is 5-7 produce a probabilistic winning percentage (what we call the "Quality Win Percentage," or QWP) of .327. Over the course of a 162-game season, that would work out to just about 53 wins. </p><p>It was a sad coda to a brilliant, injury-riddled career: but we can all be heartened by Waino's success in reaching a "magic number" (200 wins) which is presently an endangered species in terms of starting pitcher performance measures. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijxybkkuKKrwPiXhpSuSU12WUwWlOsJrY9dElmDngPnWk3MEoh1rmnTWAvBEBKRV9bdGeqq698M7PHOB9RHsc_-l3Sq7kh37tcxqPWg4kGl4TA4g_yCgg8Q4MYtejKbHTUZN_gPiWXOXmO3mFf_jlrtZtcBCjkQyLJnpzG3LJUxsCsB9iULWmQYHjMU8o/s754/Waino%20QMAX%20region%20pcts%20select%20years%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="754" data-original-width="733" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijxybkkuKKrwPiXhpSuSU12WUwWlOsJrY9dElmDngPnWk3MEoh1rmnTWAvBEBKRV9bdGeqq698M7PHOB9RHsc_-l3Sq7kh37tcxqPWg4kGl4TA4g_yCgg8Q4MYtejKbHTUZN_gPiWXOXmO3mFf_jlrtZtcBCjkQyLJnpzG3LJUxsCsB9iULWmQYHjMU8o/w194-h200/Waino%20QMAX%20region%20pcts%20select%20years%20png.png" width="194" /></a></div>Here's one last "contextual QMAX" aggregation for you vis-a-vis Waino's career performance, via a look at the key QMAX regions within the performance matrix. The <b>chart at right</b> shows those regions: the "success square" (delineated earlier) and the "elite square" (the 1,1/1,2/2,1/2,2 "best games"); the two top rows (S1/S2) which contain the top hit prevention games; the converse, in the bottom two rows (S6/S7), which constitute the "hit hard" region; and, most pertinent in the case of Waino, the region we call the "Tommy John" section of the chart, the box encompassing the starts where hits are at least equal and often greater than the number of innings pitchers, the region spanning (4,1 to 7,2) on the matrix, where pitchers manage to win games because the type of hits they give up in such games are more often singles than extra-base hits, thus allowing a higher percentage of stranded baserunners. We've highlighted that data in light blue above, while presenting all of Waino's full seasons (representing 368 games, about 85% of his career starts). As you can see, he consistently lived in the "Tommy John" region, with nearly three times the overall historical average of his starts residing there. (The region also requires excellent control: pitchers who live here do not put extra men on base via the base on balls.) <div><br /></div><div>This is also why, when you examine basic QMAX S to the more XBH-encompassing QMAX S', you'll see that Waino's S' values are consistently lower (better) in comparison to the basic measure, meaning that all those starts in the "Tommy John" region added value to his overall performance. (It's the nuance in QMAX that is missing from all other evaluation methods.)<br /><p></p><p>It's possible that Waino was the last great exemplar of this type of pitcher: only time will tell if the pendulum within the game will swing back in this direction...<br /></p><p>WE'LL revisit Waino's career record when we get into the latter phase of "awards season" at the point when Hall of Fame voting occurs (early January). Keep your focus on the line in the master chart that shows his record from 2007-2015, for that will be one of the key data elements used in evaluating his case for potential enshrinement in Cooperstown.</p></div>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6915784542366609088.post-68890785642592311032023-09-14T22:27:00.001-07:002023-09-20T20:50:53.240-07:00BASEBALL'S RACE TO WATCH IS NONE OF THE ONES YOU THINK IT IS...<p>THE post-season of 2023 is unlikely to have the type of upsets that were so galvanizing in 2022 (at least in Philadelphia). The likely Wild Card teams in the National League are noticeably weaker this year, while the American League will have a strong Wild Card team from the Eastern Division who should have an easier time advancing due to a weak Central Division winner.</p><p>Fans in Houston, Dallas, Seattle and Toronto may well sweat things out as the season's final days wind down, but their teams' chances against the Rays and the Orioles look to be slimmer than usual. And rooters for the Phillies, Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds will be thrilled if their teams make the post-season, but none of these teams project to get far against the Braves and Dodgers.</p><p>And if mediocrity manages to give itself a hot foot, you have the ungainly prospect of a flawed team goose-stepping around in glass slippers. </p><p>SO what to do in light of this looming torpor? Well, of course, there's only one sensible thing available: you need to hunker down and focus on the one truly compelling race going on in baseball at this point.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmj93fsMOCt_t8dn5vX41Wa7cuNA8At2nY7vnNDZkORBPZ6Paimz3DCYQEVIt0MxnXmD-Gg1wb94Kw4qBbKFylq4nGSSEifU8JCV8Q_aMjE5a3F-ixNpoNH_ODpSC32zJ7gIINgDprrm5utpwf2pV9DF4cv7TJfavJCJIEZGEJ1_6WocFFZa9UHxsTZxI/s2162/KC-OAK%202023%20race%20to%20the%20bottom%20png.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1520" data-original-width="2162" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmj93fsMOCt_t8dn5vX41Wa7cuNA8At2nY7vnNDZkORBPZ6Paimz3DCYQEVIt0MxnXmD-Gg1wb94Kw4qBbKFylq4nGSSEifU8JCV8Q_aMjE5a3F-ixNpoNH_ODpSC32zJ7gIINgDprrm5utpwf2pV9DF4cv7TJfavJCJIEZGEJ1_6WocFFZa9UHxsTZxI/w400-h281/KC-OAK%202023%20race%20to%20the%20bottom%20png.png" width="400" /></a></div>And what's that? Why, <u><b>the race for the bottom of the American League</b></u>, of course...<br /><p></p><p>The A's and the Royals have been locked in a see-saw battle for much of the season, and as we await the Ides of September tomorrow, the two teams are separated by a mere half-game:</p><p>OAK 46-100, KCR 46-101</p><p>Frankly, the specter of two seriously flawed teams lumbering down the final weeks of the season in what some ways might call "a literal dead heat" is a rare enough occurrence that it should get national coverage along with all the mediocre teams stumbling their way toward the playoffs.</p><p>The A's have some intriguing young players (<b>Zack Gelof</b>, <b>Esteury Ruiz</b>, <b>Mason Miller</b>, <b>Tyler Soderstrom</b>) who could form a solid core, but they'll be treading water for a couple more seasons. The Royals continue to be a team that can't draw a walk even if the count on the batter started at 1-0 in every at-bat; their mid-level breakout player <b>Bobby Witt Jr.</b> is another one of these. Whereas the A's have passable pitchers who could form a portion of an acceptable starting rotation behind Miller in <b>Paul Blackburn</b> and <b>J. P. Sears</b>, the Royals' only hope for a bankable starter is lefty <b>Cole Ragans</b>, acquired from the Rangers at the trade deadline. </p><p>Oddly, both of these teams managed seven-game winning streaks during the season: the A's spurt in June caught them up with the Royals, who regained a solid lead over the A's in August with their own streak. Since then, however, the gap has closed, with the A's actually taking the lead again just a few days ago.</p><p>What do the remaining dates on the two teams' schedule look like? Glad we asked for you...</p><p><b><u>ROYALS</u></b>: Home games vs. HOU (3), CLE (3), NYY (3); Away games vs. HOU (3), DET (4)</p><p><b><u>A's</u></b>: Home games vs. SDP (3), SEA (3), DET (4); Away games vs. MIN (3), LAA (3)</p><p>The A's would appear to have the slightly easier schedule down the stretch.</p><p>WE don't usually have a rooting interest in pennant race matters, as you may recall--there have been exceptions over the years, when certain improbable teams have emerged from obscurity to captivate us in just the right way. Here, however, we're clearly on the side of the A's, for having been one of the early models of "outside the box" thinking in baseball, and for their sustained success in doing so. While we sympathize with Royals players as they endure yet another miserable season, the franchise's stubbornly retrograde approach and their maddeningly flukish success in 2014-15 have always been sore points for us (and, surprisingly, we are not alone in such a perspective, which is a notable rarity when it comes to such matters). </p><p>So we'll just say it once: Go A's.</p><p>You should keep an eye on this yourself, just in case the wonky media decides to ignore it all. But, hey, this is a race that could go down to the very final day! (Stay tuned...)</p><p><i>[<b>UPDATE 9/20:</b> Or...not. The A's are trying out more young starting pitchers, and the results have not been good--a five-game losing streak at home (Padres, valiantly trying to sneak into the wild card race, followed by the Mariners, trying to stay afloat in the choppy waters of the AL West and the AL wild card race) and seven overall. Meanwhile, the Royals shocked the staggering Astros by outhitting them and winning two of three, and have caught the floundering Guardians with their offense in the tank. </i></p><p><i>So what we appear to be left with are two fumbling Wild Card races that will likely go down to the wire, but somehow manage to seem as though they are occurring in extremely slow motion...]</i></p><p><br /></p>Near-Genius Nephewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00473949710603037043noreply@blogger.com